Rant Trader or Hoaxer? Euro is going to crash?

[orbekler]

It is said that this guy is just an hoaxer, but seeing how is going economy right now I'm not that sure.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bp-MQhssCqI&feature=player_embedded"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bp-MQhssCqI&feature=player_embedded[/ame]

Here an interview from Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilylambert/2011/09/27/trader-or-prankster-we-called-alessio-rastani-and-asked/

 

[Zachstar]

The only thing shocking from this guy is he is openly admitting that he is betting AGAINST the economy. Usually they want to keep that hush hush then take the money and run. Not this guy apparently.

The stuff about failure. Ya... Okay.. Right...

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, he was just a hobby trader that was pretending to be an expert.

Which means he is just as good as any other trader there, because they are all just hobby traders pretending to be experts.

:lol:

Still, the Euro will not fail. It is not even sure Greece will drop out of it, despite many reasons existing for it. The Euro either fails everywhere or nowhere. And France and Germany earn too much money with the Euro to just let it fail the easy lazy way.

That countries like Greece or Italy keep the Euro low in value is a gift for our export oriented economy.

 

[Grover]

thats one upside to our own economy, we always decided not to bundle our economy about and trust it with other countries, after deciding that there were far more weaker economies out there than stronger ones, and it MIGHT pay off right now.

but either way, our economy will probably still take a hit (if not as big) because i suspect (though i actually dont know) that some of the loan(s) that greece would default on are paying us back, so we end up out of pocket


out of interest, what happens when a country's government defaults on a loan repayment? we cant exactly seize Greece's house or car can we? or perhaps we just get to make those rules up as we go along
or we'll have stated this in the loan contract

 

[Urwumpe]

out of interest, what happens when a country's government defaults on a loan repayment? we cant exactly seize Greece's house or car can we? or perhaps we just get to make those rules up as we go along
or we'll have stated this in the loan contract

Initially nothing, because there are no rules for that. German judges handle debts in Germany like that, that special German officials for gathering debts are send out and confiscate properties of the country in debt. The last country that was hit very hard by that was Thailand, which has a huge debt at a German company that constructed a highway in Thailand. A very pedantic bureaucrat simply went at the airport of Munich and tagged the personal airliner of a Thai Prince with seals.

This means of course, that the property of the country in debt has to be inside Germany, which is rarely the case.

Another mean are international warrants for such debts, that mean that ships for example with good of the country in debt may not leave port. That kind of activity is also used by Germany for international politics. They heard that China wanted to send weapons to an African country that has an insane dictator, runaway inflation and huge debts with Germany. So, instead of just sending angry words to China, they simply said "These are now our weapons, we want them to refinance the debts". Was really annoying for China, because instead of just arriving in South Africa and unloading the goods there, they had to go to another country in range, unload the weapons there and smuggle them like the criminals they are into the country. With lots of money flowing for appeasing corrupt bureaucrats in the other country.

Looks maybe like a loss for Germany, because the weapons still arrived, but now all countries know that the Damocles sword is over them, when they want to help this evil tyrant to kill his people. The arm of Germany is maybe weak, but long.

The next aspect there is the inability to get new loans for that country. This also affects the companies in that country, even an financially good company in that country will suffer strong penalties for the bad budget keeping of their leaders.

This could also have some implications: What if the USA would default, could a bank try to get its money back by confiscating a US warship? Or a drone FOB?

 

[orbekler]

Well, while posting at this very moment, it seems that Greece won't make it.
One off.
Next could be Portugal, Ireland, Italy.

 

[dgatsoulis]

Well, while posting at this very moment, it seems that Greece won't make it.
One off.
Next could be Portugal, Ireland, Italy.

Wouldn't bet on it. Lot's of controvercy, little data.
Besides, who wins out of this? Certainly not the Greeks. Or the Italians or the Irish or the Spaniards.
One thing is almost certain. For the time being, you can't have currency, without an autonomous legislation system.
Hmm... is it just me, or are we looking at an export centered "Europa", that has run out of things to export, 'cause the Chinise are so much better at it than us.

Just a thought, placing out there for others to correct me.

 

[Urwumpe]

The Chinese are better at exporting cheap things that require little skills. Which is the big problem for Greece and Portugal for example, since both relied on such things for export. Greece for example had a long tradition of exporting seamen - until Asian crews became way cheaper.

But generally, Europe does very well on exporting things that require high skills and standards of quality, and that for a price. It isn't just German cars... it is also French high speed trains or Italian spacecraft.

 

[Cairan]

...or Swiss watches and Belgian beer!

 

[Ark]

It's amazing to me that a country as comparatively small as Greece can have an effect like this. I respect what the EU has accomplished in building a community in Europe, but economically it's starting to look like a mistake. We're so interconnected that one country's screwup can tank the entire global economy.

 

[Ghostrider]

Greece for example had a long tradition of exporting seamen - until Asian crews became way cheaper.

But how can we trust seamen assembled by unpaid kids in run-down sweatshops?

 

[jedidia]

What if the USA would default, could a bank try to get its money back by confiscating a US warship?

It would be interesting to see them try... :lol:

 

[Urwumpe]

It's amazing to me that a country as comparatively small as Greece can have an effect like this. I respect what the EU has accomplished in building a community in Europe, but economically it's starting to look like a mistake. We're so interconnected that one country's screwup can tank the entire global economy.

Yes, but that is only to 20-30% a political failure of the EU. The error of the EU was the weakening of the Maastricht treaty. This treaty had been the price by Germany for the introduction of the Euro, but Germany was also among the first two countries to ignore the treaty (The other was France). So, as you can see, we should be very very silent about shouting at the rest of the EU to get their debts under control. It is needed, but in our case, it was better to have more freedom there. Instead of just ignoring the Maastricht treaty, it would have been better to define a mechanism in it for such economic situations so the debts are under control while permitting the countries to "breathe" and invest against the trend.

50% of the blame has to go to Greece, because Greece is still publishing incorrect numbers and trying to calculate the problem small. This is a bad time for creative bookkeeping.

The remaining blame has to go to the banks and rating agencies. They simply did not do their job. I could always go around and tell I earn a million per day. They will not believe me instantly but instead request accurate documentation about my income and possibly my investment plans before giving me a loan. But for a country, they simply became greedy. First, they did it because it is impossible that a country could fail to repay their debts. Later, they did it because it is impossible that Europe could refuse to help Greece. Maybe this time they are right.

But still: The banks had done a lot of work to make the situation bad, and they should really pay for this. The Greek are already punished enough for the next 30 years, the European Union for the next ten years. I see no reason why the banks should also be rewarded for their errors. They also have to take the blame there.