Over 35,000 advanced extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way

movieman

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People who claim this have absolutely no understanding of the incredible scale of things in the galaxy.

Actually, we have a very good understanding of just how _small_ the galaxy is.

An expansionist technological culture can colonise the entire galaxy in ten million years without using any technology beyond what we can visualise today. If they're determined, they could colonise it in a million or less.

And spotting such a culture would be about as hard as a caveman in Central Park spotting technological culture in Manhattan; they'd be capable of engineering feats that would be visible across thousands of light years, if not from the other side of the galaxy.

If it's "so unlikely as to be zero" then how do you explain humans? Clearly, the odds of a civilization surviving to our level can't be zero, because if it were zero, then we wouldn't be here.
And if we weren't here, no-one would be here to argue about how likely this all is.

Someone has to be first, and then within ten million years they can take over the entire galaxy. Since we can't see anyone else out there, the rational conclusion is that we are the first, or we're very, very close to being the first and the others haven't spread out far yet.
 

eveningsky339

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There could be 35,000 civilizations in the Milky Way. There could be 2. There could be 21. It's all really pure speculation no matter which way you put it.

Besides, how in heaven's name does one propose to compare ourselves to civilizations that we don't even know exist?

Don't get me wrong, I believe that there is much more out there than just us, but some of this strikes me as nothing more than an adult exercise in imagination.
 

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One possible explanation for the Fermi Paradox (They're probably there, but where are they?), is that any civilization advanced enough to use a significant fraction of a star's energy must be able to use that energy incredibly efficiently. No hand-held device can dissipate a terawatt for very long without vaporizing itself, so if you want it to make use of very high amounts of energy, you've got to achieve very high levels of efficiency. That means very little waste heat or light, which might make even a Type II civilization undetectable unless you either knew exactly what you were looking for, were very close to them, or had detectors much more advanced than ours.

Still another possibility is that "Any sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature." Perhaps civilizations tend to advance from being undetectable by us all the way through detectability to being so advanced that we don't even recognize them as being civilizations at all, but we just see them as part of the way things are. It suggests the possibility that we are simply a Type III child's science fair project, or jawbreaker, or whatever they have. Of course, this starts going beyond science, and into the realm of religion, where it's pointless to go due to the vast realm of possibilities and no evidence for any of them.
 

cjp

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Still another possibility is that "Any sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature." Perhaps civilizations tend to advance from being undetectable by us all the way through detectability to being so advanced that we don't even recognize them as being civilizations at all, but we just see them as part of the way things are.

Well, any piece of highly compressed data is indistinguishable from noise. If highly advanced civilizations only communicate in the most efficient way, SETI will have a very difficult time in detecting them.

Which gives rise to the question whether all noise actually comes from advanced civilizations :rofl:.
 

movieman

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That means very little waste heat or light, which might make even a Type II civilization undetectable unless you either knew exactly what you were looking for, were very close to them, or had detectors much more advanced than ours.

Why would a culture that advanced leave stars burning off energy wastefully into space? Unless they're crazy -- in which case they'd probably have died out long before reaching that point -- they'd either dismantle them for raw materials or surround them with habitats to absorb the energy and solar wind.

An industrialised galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.
 

GregBurch

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Why would a culture that advanced leave stars burning off energy wastefully into space? Unless they're crazy -- in which case they'd probably have died out long before reaching that point -- they'd either dismantle them for raw materials or surround them with habitats to absorb the energy and solar wind.

An industrialised galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.

B I N G O
 

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Then again, all that dark matter could be just solar systems with dyson spheres...
 

Hielor

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An industrialised galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.

Correction: our conception of an industrialized galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.

It's not a cut and dry "either the entire galaxy is controlled by a massive single industrialized civilization or there are no other civilizations."

As you pointed out in your previous post, it could take ten million years for an entire civilization to colonize the galaxy to the point where their presence would be undeniable even to us lowly stone-agers. That's a huge span of time. A million years ago the ancestors of humans hadn't yet harnessed the power of fire. If other civilizations progress at approximately the same rate, there could be thousands of civilizations at around our level of progress (give or take tens of thousands of years, which is a lot of progress, but not enough to colonize the galaxy) simultaneously existing in the galaxy without knowing of each other.

Just because there's no super-powerful galactic empire, does not mean that there are no civilizations at all.

Moreover, if there was a civilization capable of building Dyson Spheres and the like, who's to say that our solar system is not some kind of controlled experiment (or amber zone, or Prime Directive area, or whatever you want to call it), and what we see in the sky is exactly what they want us to see?
 

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Moreover, if there was a civilization capable of building Dyson Spheres and the like, who's to say that our solar system is not some kind of controlled experiment (or amber zone, or Prime Directive area, or whatever you want to call it), and what we see in the sky is exactly what they want us to see?

You touched one of my core believes here. It is entirely possible that we are an experiment, a simulation or a dream. The point is, we could and would not know. Accepting that time is only an illusion makes those thoughts much more bearable :p
 

GregBurch

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As you pointed out in your previous post, it could take ten million years for an entire civilization to colonize the galaxy to the point where their presence would be undeniable even to us lowly stone-agers. That's a huge span of time. A million years ago the ancestors of humans hadn't yet harnessed the power of fire. If other civilizations progress at approximately the same rate, there could be thousands of civilizations at around our level of progress (give or take tens of thousands of years, which is a lot of progress, but not enough to colonize the galaxy) simultaneously existing in the galaxy without knowing of each other.

Actually, the problem is that ten million years is a very, very, very short period of time relative to the age of the galaxy. There's been plenty of time for intelligent life to develop in lots of places and for reasons I bored everyone to tears in another thread a few months ago about, once that happens, it seems inevitable that such life would make itself evident on an interstellar scale in a very short period of time (again, relative to the age of the galaxy).

... when I spend so much time worrying about the Fermi Paradox, global warming seems like a stubbed toe to me ...
 

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That of course means, that there could be plenty of civilisations that have vanished. Either simply went away, ascended or simply died out. Beeing a Type >1 does not mean your entire civilisation can't become extinct. Who knows, maybe we will find some intersting things they left behind.
 

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While the efforts of SETI and METI are a start, I see one problem with sending radio signals out to the starts to unknown species: What would they even do with it, if they COULD detect it?

I mean, if you turned on your TV, got a static message with some unknown language saying "LEA EOIAHFEN EOIGTHEAOIFWEOGI, ETOIEA WEOTIHAWM EQN EOIYQWNG", would you know wtf to do? I know I wouldn't. I'd disregard it. Plus, who's to say that they can even detect our specific band of radio signals?
 

TSPenguin

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For sure we would certainly only reach civilisations that are actualy listening for us.
 

movieman

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Correction: our conception of an industrialized galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.

No. An industrialised galaxy would look nothing like the wilderness we see out there; even 0.001% annual growth for 10 million years would _require_ taking over the entire energy and raw material reserves of the galaxy.

People can make up all kinds of claims that maybe there's some magic reason why other cultures haven't done this, or that they've left this galaxy alone because they're a bunch of interstellar hippies, but every such claim merely makes the outcome less and less probable... particularly as the speed of light makes enforcing such a policy pretty much impossible on a galactic scale. By the time the Hippy Police arrived on the far side of the galaxy to stop people from dismantling stars, the Industrialists would be so powerful that they could wipe out the HPs with ease.

It's not a cut and dry "either the entire galaxy is controlled by a massive single industrialized civilization or there are no other civilizations."

No, as I said, it's possible that we're one of the very first, and that the first only emerged into interstellar space a few thousand years ago. It's just very, very, very, very unlikely.

A rational person doesn't make up unlikely possibilities to support their belief, they look at the evidence and pick the most likely conclusion.

Which is that we're alone.

And, frankly, I find that far more interesting than a galaxy full of Star Trek aliens who are just like humans but with bumps on their heads.


-----Posted Added-----


Beeing a Type >1 does not mean your entire civilisation can't become extinct.

But once your culture covers a sphere of more than a hundred light years or so, there are very few things that could wipe you out. That's why we need to reach that point ASAP.
 

Hielor

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People can make up all kinds of claims that maybe there's some magic reason why other cultures haven't done this, or that they've left this galaxy alone because they're a bunch of interstellar hippies, but every such claim merely makes the outcome less and less probable... particularly as the speed of light makes enforcing such a policy pretty much impossible on a galactic scale. By the time the Hippy Police arrived on the far side of the galaxy to stop people from dismantling stars, the Industrialists would be so powerful that they could wipe out the HPs with ease.

I do not subscribe to the "Hippy Police" theory. I was pointing out the possibility of such a thing happening.


No, as I said, it's possible that we're one of the very first, and that the first only emerged into interstellar space a few thousand years ago. It's just very, very, very, very unlikely.

A rational person doesn't make up unlikely possibilities to support their belief, they look at the evidence and pick the most likely conclusion.

Which is that we're alone.

And, frankly, I find that far more interesting than a galaxy full of Star Trek aliens who are just like humans but with bumps on their heads.
A rational person doesn't eliminate all possibilities and leap to conclusions, or look at a nonbinary problem as a binary one (ie: there are no super-advanced civilizations in the galaxy, therefore there must be no civilizations at all). We don't have enough evidence to reach an informed conclusion. Right now, it's like having microscopes that cannot show objects smaller than 1 inch in diameter, and thereby concluding that there are no objects smaller than 1 inch in diameter.

Keep in mind also that by the time light from the far side of the galaxy reaches us, it's as much as 100,000 years old. When you take into account that window, plus the couple hundred thousand years(as a low estimate) in which a species can be considered intelligent without having marked effects throughout the galaxy, your window of opportunity is suddenly a lot larger than the "few thousand years" you claim. Yes, it's still a split second on the scale of galactic history, but you absolutely cannot claim that nothing of interest has happened in a hundred BILLION star systems in the course of say 300,000 years.

Moreover, assuming that you are somehow special, or that you belong to a special distinct group of individuals which is somehow innately superior to others (regardless of whether that group is "white males," as in the past, or "all humans," as in the current discussion) is by its very nature a dangerous and invalid way of thinking. Remember, you're unique--just like everyone else.

The odds are that you are not special, that you are not the first to do something. Thinking otherwise is just giving yourself a god complex.

You claim: there are no other civilizations out there, in one hundred billion stars.

My claim: there may be another civilization out there, but they are either a) not advanced enough for us to detect or b) too advanced for us to detect, but not so advanced as to make their presence obvious.

Which sounds more likely?
 

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You claim: there are no other civilizations out there, in one hundred billion stars.

My claim: there may be another civilization out there, but they are either a) not advanced enough for us to detect or b) too advanced for us to detect, but not so advanced as to make their presence obvious.

Which sounds more likely?

I have to agree. Suggesting that there is no trace of civilization anywhere in such a vast arrary of stars is, to me, bordering on ignorance.
 

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garyw

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I have to agree. Suggesting that there is no trace of civilization anywhere in such a vast arrary of stars is, to me, bordering on ignorance.

Fermi's Paradox.
 

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And, frankly, I find that far more interesting than a galaxy full of Star Trek aliens who are just like humans but with bumps on their heads.
At least Star Trek gave a plausible explanation for that. And that might be even be true. Some race might have spread "life" because they were lonely or caring or stoned... who knows?!?
But once your culture covers a sphere of more than a hundred light years or so, there are very few things that could wipe you out. That's why we need to reach that point ASAP.
Well said!
 
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