North Korean Sattelite Launch?

SiberianTiger

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The best we can do is try to remove the psychopaths from power and impower the 3rd world nations with like-minded individuals that are more interested in peaceful progress than ideaological world destruction.

You've forgotten to ask the "3rd world nations".

Who will decide which leader is a psychopath? A psychiatrist?
 

Ark

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Don't forget a number of these 3rd world "psychopaths" were democratically elected, at least originally.
 

SiberianTiger

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Look, Hitler was not a psycho. He was a rational thinker, or at least had a staff of rational thinkers at his disposal. It was not his ill mind that dug a grave for him: it was a simple strategic mistake of underestimation of the ability of his enemies to form an alliance against him.

The nations united over a motive of self-defense against Hitler, putting aside ideology clashes. Had he only conduct Holocaust in isolation within Germany's borders, we would have a North Korea's precursor. And nobody would give a damn.

So I believe that Kim Jong Il will only be punished when he really challenges the external powers. And this punishment will be a justified act of self-defense.
 

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Look, Hitler was not a psycho. He was a rational thinker, or at least had a staff of rational thinkers at his disposal. It was not his ill mind that dug a grave for him: it was a simple strategic mistake of underestimation of the ability of his enemies to form an alliance against him.

The nations united over a motive of self-defense against Hitler, putting aside ideology clashes. Had he only conduct Holocaust in isolation within Germany's borders, we would have a North Korea's precursor. And nobody would give a damn.

So I believe that Kim Jong Il will only be punished when he really challenges the external powers. And this punishment will be a justified act of self-defense.
Yup, the Allies built more ships then the U-boats could sink, more airplanes than they could shoot down, more tanks than they could destroy and more troops than they could kill.
 

SiberianTiger

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Yup, the Allies built more ships then the U-boats could sink, more airplanes than they could shoot down, more tanks than they could destroy and more troops than they could kill.

That alone needs to be proven, but let's assume you are correct. I don't really like dwelling among historical what-ifs, but imagine what might happen if Hitler conquered the USSR first, before going to France and Britain. Or finished off Britain before going to USSR. Or applied better diplomacy to keep USA from being involved at all.
 

Urwumpe

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Look, Hitler was not a psycho. He was a rational thinker, or at least had a staff of rational thinkers at his disposal. It was not his ill mind that dug a grave for him: it was a simple strategic mistake of underestimation of the ability of his enemies to form an alliance against him.

That is not the whole truth. He also overestimated his own skills. He, like many famous and partially concurrent German politicians, thought that he can do better than his Generals.

Just look at which orders had been given directly by Hitler, often contrary to the recommendations of his generals.

That he allowed his enemies to unite against him, was also not unpreventable. Politically (The USSR could have done well without joining the war, unless attacked) as well as militarily.
 

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That alone needs to be proven, but let's assume you are correct. I don't really like dwelling among historical what-ifs, but imagine what might happen if Hitler conquered the USSR first, before going to France and Britain. Or finished off Britain before going to USSR. Or applied better diplomacy to keep USA from being involved at all.
Well in those cases the Germans wouldn't be as badly outnumbered. I don't have the necessary background to speculate on alternate outcomes, but they Germans did make several mistakes that worked out for the allies. The importance of US and Russian industry and manpower can't be understated.

350px-WorldWarII-GDP-Relations-Allies-Axis-simple.svg.png

Code:
System                              Allies        Axis
Tanks and SP guns                  227,235      52,345
Artillery                          914,682     180,141
Mortars                            657,318     100,000+
Machineguns                      4,744,484   1,058,863
Military trucks                  3,060,354     594,859
Military aircraft total            633,072     278,795
Fighter aircraft                   212,459      90,684
Attack aircraft                     37,549      12,539
Bomber aircraft                    153,615      35,415
Reconnaissance aircraft              7,885      13,033
Transport aircraft                  43,045       5,657
Training aircraft                   93,578      28,516
Aircraft carriers                      155          16
Battleships                             13           7
Cruisers                                82          15
Destroyers                             814          86
Convoy escorts                       1,102           -
Submarines                             422       1,336
Merchant shipping tonnage       33,993,230   5,000,000+
Pillboxes, bunkers (steel, concrete
- uk only                     - 72,128,141 tonnes
(from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_War_II )
Allies had a definite economic advantage. ;)
Estimate Concrete runways 10,000,000 tonnes
 

Urwumpe

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It wasn't as bad as it might be expected for 1944. Which year the table data are for, by the way? Or is it a summing up over all the time span of the WWII?

It includes also Japan and Italy. Look when Italy decided to get rid of Mussolini and join the winning team (September 1943). At the same time, the USA had still not reached the Japanese homeland effectively with their bombers - the first bombing raid with B-29 bombers was June 1944.
 

Omhra

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which gives the lesson of;
Never underestimate anything.
Not a nation of farmers and mild business men nor a technologist nation... Or the stupidity of any great leader (as terrible as their greatness might be).
One thing is for sure, we (as the supposedly enlightened nations) cannot turn "potential" violence by effecting violence.
In my opinion shooting down their missile would be a grave mistake.

Rocketry is physics, bombs are physics... sooner or later everyone will figure it out.

Our markets will dictate what happens in the end. They always have.
 

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Any offensive action done by NK would mean suicide to them. It would be an instant justification to completely bomb the place, even for the more peaceful people like Obama.

And they are already capable of doing lots of damage. Seoul is within range of normal NK artillery. If they were crazy enough, they would already have done it.

Under these circumstances, what is the point of NK developing such technology? It can only mean they will be better able to defend themselves. Technologically, it might also give them offensive capabilities, but diplomatically these capabilities are irrelevant.

the US (or NATO, UN or whatever) attacking NK is a much more likely scenario than NK attacking the US, or even attacking South Korea. Under these circumstances, technological know-how in NK will more likely prevent war than cause it.

I generally agree but let me be a bit of a devil's advocate here:

Firstoff, their craziness may not be constant. They may not have been crazy enough five years ago, but they may be crazy enough now.

Also, as far as nuclear retaliation goes, we can't really glass them, since a glassing would probably dump alot of fallout on nearby countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia, and we can't be sure that anything less than a glassing would kill the leadership.
 

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News sources here are predicting a launch between April 4 - 8th. The first stage is supposed to drop 120km directly to my west. Maybe I'll get out my baseball glove.
 

Urwumpe

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This bit of news is the reason why I made a Taepodong 1. :) And why I was asking for some readymade module/DLL that has some kind of rudimentary ASAT/AM capabilities. Just fooling around with intercept scenarios. Perhaps it can even be developed into some sort of crude "game" within Orbiter.

Well, I have a crude ASM-135 ASAT addon on the workbench, it can already be tested, but there are still holes in the guidance. It is air launched, but it would be not hard adapting the code for a sea launch standard SM-3 interceptor.

The basic formulas for calculating an intercept can be found in the BMW, but it still requires some effort cutting them down to a guidance algorithm.
 

rodion_herrera

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Well, I have a crude ASM-135 ASAT addon on the workbench, it can already be tested, but there are still holes in the guidance. It is air launched, but it would be not hard adapting the code for a sea launch standard SM-3 interceptor.

The basic formulas for calculating an intercept can be found in the BMW, but it still requires some effort cutting them down to a guidance algorithm.

Nice Urwumpe! Can your system work with multistage/spacecraft.dll?

No promises, but I can perhaps mesh all the needed objects (ship, launcher, etc.). My priority for now will be mostly Taepodong stuff (i.e. launchpad, surrounding buildings, surface tile/mesh), but later, if a doable ASM-135 thing is possible, I can perhaps model a simple cruiser/frigate and the ASAT itself. What will the Japanese Defense network be firing at it anyway? Is it something like the ASM-135?

-RODION
 

Urwumpe

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I suggest looking in your glove box first. ;)

Of course, we are talking about the Bate-Mueller-White book "Fundamentals of Astrodynamics" (because of the low price, a must have IMHO for any Orbiteer with interest in add-on making) and not the fine but expensive car. ;)


Nice Urwumpe! Can your system work with multistage/spacecraft.dll?

Yes, despite me using the Black Dart for testing, you can attach it to any spacecraft3.dll vessel and release it. I currently write a MFD, which you can use for planning the intercept and program the guidance.

No promises, but I can perhaps mesh all the needed objects (ship, launcher, etc.). My priority for now will be mostly Taepodong stuff (i.e. launchpad, surrounding buildings, surface tile/mesh), but later, if a doable ASM-135 thing is possible, I can perhaps model a simple cruiser/frigate and the ASAT itself.

The ASM-135 would just need a small adaption of the K-F-15 from Orbithangar. For making the SM-3, I would need a new set of meshes, but 90% of the code written for the ASM-135 could also be used for the SM-3.

What would change would be stage structure, performance and guidance algorithm (The ASM-135 has only a limited guidance, the SM-3 would require a full intercept guidance)

What will the Japanese Defense network be firing at it anyway? Is it something like the ASM-135?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Standard_SM-3
 
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