Launch News Kim Jong Un's newest star: North Korea Satellite Launch February 7, 2016

[Soheil_Esy]

Mission Briefing
Launch date: 2015 FEB 8-25 /07:00 - 12:00 (GMT+8:30)
Launcher: Unha-XX (은하)
Payload（Country）: Kwangmyongsong (or Shining Star; 광명성) （DPRK）
Launch site（Country）: Sohae（DPRK）
Launch pad: LC1
Status: Pending
Orbit type and parameter: SSO
Remark: XX

Notifications

• IMO and ITU
  
  

  February 2, 2016
  
  North Korea has begun informing international organizations of its intention to launch an earth observation satellite sometime between February 8 and 25.
  
  The International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London said it had received notice of the launch and would be issuing an advisory to its members. Such notifications are commonplace for space launches or missile tests and serve as warnings to ships and aircraft to stay away from areas through which the rocket will fly or fall.
  
  The launch notification named the satellite as “Kwangmyongsong,” (광명성) which is the same name given to previous satellites that were built by the country.
  
  The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) said it had also received a notification. The letter, which came through the DPRK’s mission to the United Nations in New York, indicated the satellite would have a lifetime of 4 years.
  
  Here’s the notification to the IMO:
  

  

  
  http://www.northkoreatech.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/160202-imo-1.png
  
  

  

  
  http://www.northkoreatech.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/160202-imo-2-570x720.png
  
  
  http://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/02/02/dprk-signals-february-satellite-launch/

  
  

  Launch notification reveals rocket drop zones
  
  February 3, 2016
  
  The launch notification sent on Tuesday by the DPRK to the International Maritime Organization warns of three areas that shipping should stay away from when the country conducts its planned satellite launch.
  
  The launch is due to take place from Sohae satellite launch site sometime between February 8 and 25 between 7am and noon Pyongyang time. The three zones are the areas where the rocket’s first stage, fairing and second stage will drop back to sea.
  
  The first stage is the lower part of the rocket and provides the power for the first minute or so of its flight. Once the fuel is used up, this detaches and falls back to earth. At that point the second stage engines fire up to take the satellite closer to space.
  
  The fairing is the protective cover that sits around the satellite during the first part of its journey. Once the rocket gets high enough, the fairing is no longer needed and that too is jettisoned. Finally, the second stage engine cuts out and the rest of the rocket falls back to earth.
  
  If all has gone according to plan, the satellite has been delivered to the right spot and continues its journey in orbit.
  
  Here are the three areas on a map with Sohae launch site indicated at the top of the picture.
  
  

  

  
  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaSKDhvUUAAsJjw.jpg
  
  The zones are close but not identical to those used in launches in 2012.
  
  The first stage is expected to land in the sea off the west coast of South Korea. That gives the South Korean Navy the chance to recover the rocket and see what they can learn about improvements in North Korean rocket technology.
  
  The fairing will fall in a larger area off the south west coast of South Korea, closer to Jeju Island. This drop zone might be larger because the fairing is less aerodynamic and so its fall is more difficult to predict.
  
  

  

  
  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaSKC_nVIAAGpxH.jpg
  April 2012 splash downs in green, 2016 in yellow
  
  And finally, the second stage rocket is expected to land in waters to the east of the Philippines. This is similar to a previous North Korean satellite launch and will disrupt air travel in the region.
  
  

  

  
  http://oi68.tinypic.com/adjl6v.jpg
  April 2012 splash downs in green, 2016 in yellow
  
  

  

  
  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaOyOUOUUAAP-Kd.jpg
  
  
  https://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/02/03/launch-notification-reveals-rocket-drop-zones/

• Navigational Warnings
  
  

  NAVAREA XI
  NO.16-0068 Date:2016/02/03 01 UTC
  
  YELLOW SEA, EAST CHINA SEA AND
  NORTH PACIFIC, LUZON.
  DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION AREA DESIGNATED
  DUE TO ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALL.
  2230Z TO 0330Z COMMENCING DAILY 07 TO 25
  FEB. AREA BOUNDED BY
  A. 36-04N 124-30E 36-04N 124-54E
  35-19N 124-54E 35-19N 124-30E.
  B. 33-16N 124-11E 33-16N 125-09E
  32-21N 125-08E 32-22N 124-11E.
  C. 19-44N 123-53E 19-43N 124-51E
  17-00N 124-48E 17-01N 123-52E.
  CANCEL THIS MSG 250430Z FEB.
  
  Location map:
  

  

  
  http://i68.tinypic.com/2yoq3ag.jpg
  http://www1.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/TUHO/vpage/visualpage_en.html?type=212&tana=160068
  
  http://www1.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/TUHO/keiho/cgi/disp_warnings.cgi?TYPE=NAVAREA11&TANA=160068&LANG=EG

February 3, 2016

A SK government source here said the likeliest date is former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's birthday on Feb. 16.
...
The North announced the launch plan the very day when chief Chinese nuclear negotiator Wu Dawei was visiting Pyongyang.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/02/03/2016020300944.html

February 2016 Holidays in North Korea

Feb 8 Monday Chunjeol (춘절) / Spring Festival, Lunar New Year's Day Public Holiday
Feb 16 Tuesday Kwangmyongsong day ( 광명성절 ) / Day of Shining Star, Birth date of Kim Jong Il Public Holiday
Feb 22 Monday Cheongwoldaeboreum (정월대보름) / The 15th of the first month by the lunar calendar Public Holiday

http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/north-korea/

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Anyone betting 1 US dollar that this launch will "intentionally fail" - no not being shot down by the Evil Americans (TM) - but that it will intentionally be guided on a ballistic trajectory?

 

[kerlix]

- North Korea Reports: Kim Jong-un pushed the rocket into orbit himself, released the satellite, and finally, carried the 2 stages back down to earth under his arms. They'll be reused in the next launch and have beaten the technological poop out of the rest of the world.


- Other Government Reports: The rocket exploded and/or crashed approximately 75 seconds after launch. There's a good chance it'll go ballistic - whether or not it's intentional is up for grabs.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Looks like they launched it:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-idUSKCN0VG00H

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

US reports apparently shows that the thingy did reach a 466 x 500 km, 97.4 deg. inclination orbit. :hmm:

 

[Notebook]

BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35515207

 

[Kyle]

I'm a little annoyed by that headline; if it made it to orbit it's not a long-range missile, it's an orbital launch vehicle. I guess fear and panic gets more clicks.

 

[DaveS]

I'm a little annoyed by that headline; if it made it to orbit it's not a long-range missile, it's an orbital launch vehicle. I guess fear and panic gets more clicks.

What about the original Atlas? Or on the Soviet side, the R7? Both of them of were ICBMs adapted to SLV duties. Same deal goes for the Titan II, second generation ICBM. Alan Shepard launched on a Redstone, an IRBM.

 

[Loru]

Capability of putting satellite to orbit means you have working ICBM.

 

[Andy44]

Capability of putting satellite to orbit means you have working ICBM.

Not really; a launch vehicle doesn't have to hit a target on the ground. If you want to test a surface-to-surface missile, you need to shoot it at a target.

In general, some missiles make good launch vehicles, but few purpose-built launch vehicles make good missiles.

 

[boogabooga]

Also, effective nukes are going to weigh more than 200kg.

 

[Col_Klonk]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35515207

Trump has more sense than Jebb Bush (what a moron ?).
Kim Kong is doing his country through where the sun don't shine. China knows this... and Jebb want to attack NK.:rofl::rofl:

 

[Notebook]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35518058

UN has condemned it, so its going to be all right now.

N.

 

[Kyle]

What about the original Atlas? Or on the Soviet side, the R7? Both of them of were ICBMs adapted to SLV duties. Same deal goes for the Titan II, second generation ICBM. Alan Shepard launched on a Redstone, an IRBM.

All things I'm aware of, especially considering my own grandfather was involved with Gemini-Titan, but something about the way it's being treated doesn't sit right with me. I understand it's a flex of their missile program, but I really think this is much ado about nothing.

 

[DaveS]

All things I'm aware of, especially considering my own grandfather was involved with Gemini-Titan, but something about the way it's being treated doesn't sit right with me. I understand it's a flex of their missile program, but I really think this is much ado about nothing.

Alone, maybe. But in combination with their nuclear arms (both atomic and hydrogen) it could very well just be a smoke-screen. There's not much difference between a armed missile and a unarmed SLV, just a few m/s in horizontal velocity. At 7.4 km/s the payload is impacting the ground, at 7.5 km/s, it's orbital and that's just a difference of 100 m/s.

 

[Pipcard]

What about the original Atlas? Or on the Soviet side, the R7? Both of them of were ICBMs adapted to SLV duties. Same deal goes for the Titan II, second generation ICBM. Alan Shepard launched on a Redstone, an IRBM.

Indeed, it does seem like a double standard. But keep in mind, this might be because North Korea seems to show a belligerent stance, especially with their "songun" policy, which prioritizes militarization above all else.

Actually, this article explains it better than I can.

(Note the word "deterrence." That is how countries typically justify the possession of nuclear weapons: to deter each other from actually using them)

 

[ADSWNJ]

Not really; a launch vehicle doesn't have to hit a target on the ground. If you want to test a surface-to-surface missile, you need to shoot it at a target.

If you are NK, though, the target is just landing it on the mainland USA. Anywhere will do. So yes - they have some viable capabilities there. Just try it though ... there wouldn't be much left of their country afterwards.

 

[Urwumpe]

Capability of putting satellite to orbit means you have working ICBM.

Exactly. The coarse formula is simply: Warhead mass = payload mass to orbit multiplied by 8.

Of course, a good orbital launch vehicle is no good ICBM and the other way around. Right now there is also nothing that suggests that North Korea is really having an operational ICBM, since the launch preparations and infrastructure exceed what is acceptable for a first strike or second strike weapon.

But still North Korea has developed something that is a good prototype for a viable ICBM. They won't be attacking the USA next year with it, but should the technology mature enough, the storable propellants and rather rugged technology would allow to use the same rocket with minimal modifications as ICBM in large underground bunkers.

Of course, its nothing that allows a small footprint. Also it does not seem to support cold start and there is nothing in NK that suggests that such a technology could be mastered soon. It is not using solid propellants, which are less maintenance heavy and allow really forgetting the ICBM in a tiny underground silo with only a small footprint (like Minuteman).

Still it is part of the game for NK.

 

[APDAF]

And international sanctions will do nothing to stop them...

 

[Urwumpe]

And international sanctions will do nothing to stop them...

Why should they stop? Its part of their business model. :lol:

If you really want to annoy them, ignore them. But that is a really tough problem, if you remember that South Korea is only lightly less mad than North Korea. The loudspeaker warfare between NK and SK is pretty funny, if it would not have such dire consequences.