News Contact lost with 777-200ER of Malaysia Airlines

garyw

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When I wrote that post I was thinking about human trafficking.

No, it's much easier to traffic humans that want to be trafficed (i.e. those who will pay to move into europe or the US) - why hijack a plane of people who will be a pain in the neck when you have people paying you that you can then traffic?

What if the plane is not on the sea? It may be unlikely (because the sea is too big, but what if it was not?).

Then where? Land? Sure but where?

Here I have a question for those who know:
What is the most likely cause of the disappearance of this aircraft?

It's gone somewhere and hasn't been found yet.
 

N_Molson

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Now the plane could have travelled every thinkable path between these points, but only few such paths will be realistic.

Well, I'm certain that this highly strategic area is closely monitored by sea and air active radars. Except sneaking under 500 feet (that's very low), I don't see how it could have flown undetected. The speed of 231 knots is very compatible with such an altitude, that's a point. But the FL270 doesn't makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if that signal was a false positive or something like that. Now I'm not expert about the way transponders work.
 

Urwumpe

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Well, I'm certain that this highly strategic area is closely monitored by sea and air active radars. Except sneaking under 500 feet (that's very low), I don't see how it could have flown undetected. The speed of 231 knots is very compatible with such an altitude, that's a point. But the FL270 doesn't makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if that signal was a false positive or something like that. Now I'm not expert about the way transponders work.

Why is the altitude a false positive?

Also, I have strong doubts, that this region has air surveillance radar, that is even comparable to western standards. Alone sea surveillance there has larger gaps than the asteroid belt - guess why it is a hot spot of modern piracy.
 

garyw

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My understanding is that the transponder sends a signal and inside that signal is the altitude, speed and location which is all gathered from onboard sensors. If the sensors give poor information then the transponder will as well. This was partly responsible for the Birginer Air crash [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birgenair_Flight_301"]Birgenair Flight 301 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

The crew asked ATC to pass them speed and altitude but ATC just passed what the transponder provided and the transponder was getting false information
 

kamaz

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It seems, that the transponder ceased to emit when the plane got out of the 'radar' screens, but was picked by a military station 70 minutes later over the straight of Malacca, displaying FL270. That point is 500 kilometers away from the last known position. That's 428.6 km/h or 231 knots (Ground Speed). I'm not even sure that such an airliner can fly at 9000 meters so slowly ?

How about that:

1. Take control of the plane.

2. Make a dive so it appears that the plane crashed.

3. Fly below the radar until you get out of radar range. Since you are flying low (under the radar) you're going to fly much slower.

4. Climb back to cruise altitude.

5. Fly to the predetermined location.

6. Land.

In this scenario, the aircraft was picked up by the radar at stage 5. This explains low average ground speed -- it was flying lower and slower before.

Also, my Dad observed today that 777-200ER has a rated range of 5'200 miles, so it could reach Africa, where you have a lot of old airports and no government control:

SPT6jiN.jpg


Also observe that (1) the plane was turning left when it disappeared from the radar (024->333), (2) the unidentified radar contact occured almost exactly west of the last known position:

aTNqmSo.jpg

(image from avherald)

So my Dad's theory -- that someone stole the plane and went to Africa -- is actually pretty consistent.

There's only one problem with this theory though: why would someone want to steal that plane...
 
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Urwumpe

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Also, my Dad observed today that 777-200ER has a rated range of 5'200 miles, so it could reach Africa, where you have a lot of old airports and no government control:

It is no 777-200ER, but a regular 777-200. Slightly shorter range. The 777-200ER has a range of 7700 NM.

Still, flying up and down, changing velocity, turn around - all this costs you a lot of range, and flying against the jet stream will sure not improve the range.

Don't know why everybody now reports it to be a 777-200ER, with a 892 engine, which is only available for the 777-300.
 
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garyw

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Plus it would have had enough fuel for the journey plus extra. It won't have been completely full of fuel as it costs to transport all that weight
 

Kyle

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How about that:

1. Take control of the plane.

2. Make a dive so it appears that the plane crashed.

3. Fly below the radar until you get out of radar range. Since you are flying low (under the radar) you're going to fly much slower.

4. Climb back to cruise altitude.

5. Fly to the predetermined location.

6. Land.

In this scenario, the aircraft was picked up by the radar at stage 5. This explains low average ground speed -- it was flying lower and slower before.

Also, my Dad observed today that 777-200ER has a rated range of 5'200 miles, so it could reach Africa, where you have a lot of old airports and no government control:

SPT6jiN.jpg


There's only one problem with this theory though: why would someone want to steal that plane...


Well who doesn't want a fully functional 777 in their garage?

Personally, I think it crashed, or blew up, and they're looking in the wrong place. Maybe some debris will wash up ashore in a few weeks?

Judging by the level of competence being portrayed by the local gov't involved with this mystery, I wouldn't be surprised if we never know..
 

N_Molson

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Also, I have strong doubts, that this region has air surveillance radar, that is even comparable to western standards.

But the object searched is a massive airliner, that even WWII radars would probably have spotted, not a B-2 or some advanced stealth fighter.

I don't buy it. Some warships, satellites or military patrolling aircrafts would have spotted something. I stay convinced the answer lies somewhere in the water, and that some fishing boat will haul a convincing piece of debris sooner or later.

Plus it would have had enough fuel for the journey plus extra. It won't have been completely full of fuel as it costs to transport all that weight

Exactly.
 
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Urwumpe

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But the object searched is a massive airliner, that even WWII radars would probably have spotted, not a B-2 or some advanced stealth fighter.

What radar? Can't you even consider, that further away from airports could not even be another radar station to cover the airspace?

Its radar - not a TV set.
 

N_Molson

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Well, the [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_warning_radar"]EWR[/ame]s. Every country, even very poor, wants to be able to monitor its airspace. Those have usually a long range. Even WWII ones had a radius of 100-150 miles.
 

Urwumpe

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kamaz

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It is no 777-200ER, but a regular 777-200. Slightly shorter range. The 777-200ER has a range of 7700 NM.

Still I had the right range :) and as you can see from my map, KUL->MGQ is less than 4000NM.

Also observe this interesting bits in the avherald article:

On Mar 12th 2014 officials of Malaysia's Civil Aviation Authority talking to families of occupants of MH-370 in Beijing reported that the aircraft was just in the process of being handed off to Vietnam, the last radio transmission heard from the aircraft was "Okay, good night". The crew did not report on Vietnam's frequency anymore. About three minutes later Vietnam's control center noticed that the aircraft had disappeared from radar and had not reported on his frequency.

It could be of course a coincidence, but it's rather interesting that the airplane vanished at the sector boundary. I mean, if you wanted to disappear, wouldn't it be exactly when you'd do this? Coordination delays are guaranteed to delay response.
 

Urwumpe

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It could be of course a coincidence, but it's rather interesting that the airplane vanished at the sector boundary. I mean, if you wanted to disappear, wouldn't it be exactly when you'd do this? Coordination delays are guaranteed to delay response.

Does not mean much. There can be quite some time before it enters the communication range of the next sector, and between that, you only have SATCOM.
 

kamaz

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Does not mean much. There can be quite some time before it enters the communication range of the next sector, and between that, you only have SATCOM.

Per the avherald article, the delay between "Goobye" to Malasia and VietNam noticing the airplane disappearing was three minutes.
 

Urwumpe

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Per the avherald article, the delay between "Goobye" to Malasia and VietNam noticing the airplane disappearing was three minutes.

Yes. Three minutes are a long time.

Also, the statements of the timing by the Malaysian ATC have to be considered coarsely accurate.
 

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Yes, if someone thinks ignorant accusations that are more wrong than "India is a part of South America" but feels conscious enough about them to put them out into the world I occasionally get frustrated.


95% of this thread is pure speculation, why am I not allowed to add some of my own?


Anyway, Kiwi oil rigger claims to have seen a burning aircraft off Vungtau.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/flight-mh370-kiwi-oil-rigger-reports-burning-plane-153136



Oh, and for the record, check out China's response to the whole thing in the last two paragraphs. Apparently they aren't too happy about the pace at which the whole investigation is moving. Like I said, "a conspiracy of silence". The local officials are talking a lot, but not really saying anything.

Get it?
 
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N_Molson

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From The Guardian :

How does a plane simply 'disappear off the radar'?

Over land, air traffic controllers can use two types of radar, primary, which detects objects by bouncing back a radio signal, and secondary , where the plane sends back an automatic response, identifying itself. Air traffic consultant Doug Maclean, of DKM Aviation, says: "Secondary surveillance radar sends out a coded question, the interrogation message will be received and sent back; that requires a degree of co-operation between plane and the ground. In the likes of the 9/11 incident, the aircraft would have received messages but hijackers had switched off the reply."


A-Vietnamese-military-hel-008.jpg


A Vietnamese military helicopter joins the search for flight MH370. Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

But over longer distances where radar coverage is limited – ie usually when planes are flying across oceans – they use another system, Automatic Dependent Surveillance. Here the aircraft transmits its own signal and gives its position via satellites. Maclean says: "Once you go outside primary radar coverage, which would normally be about 100 miles offshore maximum, you are relying on the plane to be transponding."

Malaysia Airlines has confirmed its plane had a system called ACARS, or the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which would also automatically alert engineers at base of any mechanical failure.


A-map-of-MH370s-flight-pl-008.jpg


A map of MH370's flight plan is seen on computer screen. Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

So when flight MH370 disappeared from plane tracking websites, it could mean the signals from the plane's transponder were stopped deliberately (by pilots or others), or there was a complete electrical failure, or the plane disintegrated. Where the Malaysian plane was flying, the signals are picked up by sites only once a minute and only at a plane's cruising height above 29,000 feet. So a dramatic loss of altitude could conceivably also see a plane drop off their radar but potentially continue to travel for some distance.

Why are the searches taking place over such vastly different areas?

Searches have been taking place at sea along the original flight path to Vietnam, and on the other side of the Malay Peninsula in the Strait of Mallaca, and are now being widened even further. At cruising altitude the plane would have been travelling at between 500-600mph – allowing for some considerable distance to be travelled if the plane was still intact when it disappeared from the radar. Even with complete engine failure, some aviation experts have estimated the plane could glide for 20 minutes.Malaysian authorities said on Sunday that the plane could have turned just before vanishing. According to tracking site FlightRadar24, the last data it received showed the plane was changing its bearing, but in a way that matched the usual flight path on that route – although the site's experts say the plane could conceivably have changed path after dropping down.(See a fuller explanation here).
 
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