News Contact lost with 777-200ER of Malaysia Airlines

[astrosammy]

Subang ATC has lost contact with flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing,
scheduled to arrive at 06:30 (three hours ago if this is Beijing time):

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html

The plane was enroute at 35000 feet over the Gulf of Thailand according to avherald, contact lost at 18:40:

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

This is the track of that 777-200 when last tracked:

Doesn't look good at all, and surprising that the plane isn't found after ~12 hours over a relatively busy gulf (with lots of shipping and fishing traffic) in calm weather.

This looks even stranger than AF447.... (structural failure? bomb? fire? autopilot? etc.)

 

[Kyle]

Confirmed to have crashed:
@YahooSG 2m
Vietnam media now reporting their navy has confirmed that #MalaysiaAirlines flight #MH370 crashed into the ocean. #PrayForMH370

 

[Codz]

Another potentially fatal 777 incident? Absolutely horrendous...

 

[Linguofreak]

Another potentially fatal 777 incident? Absolutely horrendous...

A bit more than "potentially", at this point. From the details I've seen, the aircraft has almost certainly been lost with all aboard.

In some ways this is more of a "first fatal crash" than Asiana 214, in that a flight on which there are only three fatalities probably could have crashed in the same manner without fatalities, whereas anything that could have caused this situation is almost certain to have caused fatalities.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Confusing information are still spreading out till now, almost 24 hours after lost contact, but it appears that there are oil spreads roughly over the position the aircraft was last contacted.

Well if you are following the news it appears that an Italian and an Austrian that has appeared on the passenger list wasn't on-board - because their passports were actually stolen (both in Thailand!) some time ago. Maybe this has something to do with this......or maybe not? :shrug:

 

[MattBaker]

Apparently a "Luigi Maraldi" was on the passenger manifest, who is actually in Thailand but had his passport stolen according to mirror.co.uk.

Of course there are quite a few reasons to travel with a stolen passport but it could definitly be a possibility.

And it should be noted that the whole South Chinese Sea is quite shallow so it might be possible to recover the bodies/pieces of the wreckage relatively quickly.

---------- Post added at 03:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:42 PM ----------

:ninja:'d

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Oh and there aren't a lot of reasons that can cause an aircraft to suddenly disappear at cruising altitude:

* Decompression or structural failure (a la CI611) - not much chance as there are no reports of a major repair with the aircraft involved, unlike the crashes of the China Airlines and JAL 747s that broke up in mid-air. Design flaw (such as the DC-10 cargo door issue) are highly unlikely.

* Fuel tank/engine explosion mid-flight (TWA800 etc.) - unlikely for an aircraft type with such a good safety record as the B777. Then again remember the Qantas A380?

* Pilot error - can't see how to do that in cruising altitude in the middle of the night..... AF447 doesn't count because there are no adverse weather conditions nearby this time. Oh and the flight crew is rather experienced (captain has 18000+ flying hours over 30+ years; first officer has 2700+ flying hours over the past 7 years)...

* Sudden changes in speed/altitude/attitude causing structural failure (some may remember an Austrian 767 breaking up in mid-air after the reversers somehow were deployed in flight - not happened before or since)

* Autopilot issues (there was an MH 777 and at least 2 QF Airbus A330 years earlier that lost control in mid-air due to software errors)

* Sabotage/pilot suicide - I consider this to be unlikely. There are people who noted that there was a serious attack by Xinjiang separatists in Kunming, China just the weekend earlier that killed 29 people, so maybe there was a bomb targeting the Chinese on board. Well, why would bombers set off one on a Malaysian plane? Plus no-one has claimed that this aircraft was bombed.....

As for pilot suicide, I shall note that apparently the captain of the flight is a flight simmer and apparently posts in a German flight sim forum.......

Maybe there are other reasons.....but one can't even guess until any wreckage and the black boxes are found.

 

[MattBaker]

Well, the 777-200ER had trouble with their engines a few times like [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_38"]BA38[/ame] but:
A) I seriously doubt this problem wasn't investigated and fixed on any 777
B) Even if you lose some or all thrust in your engines you usually have a few minutes to react and would instantly call ATC, possibly even a Mayday call

So I would say it's not that problem again, sure you could lose a bit of thrust without noticing but it's a long way from cruising altitude to the sea...

 

[Urwumpe]

Two passengers have now been found to have been travelling with stolen passports.

Since the 777-200 had been reliable as hell in the 20 years of its service, the weather was great and no technical issues had been reported before disappearance, this puts the terrorism theory pretty high on the list. But as said above, it is just one possibility right now among many. It could even be that terrorists travelled on an aircraft that had a technical failure before they had even a chance to do anything.

What ever it was, it must have been a massive instant failure of the whole aircraft, so communication was lost together with radar contact.

 

[garyw]

Two passengers have now been found to have been travelling with stolen passports.

Not good and certainly puts terrorism at the top of the list but shouldn't the plane have had the new security doors fitted? Even if it is terrorism the terrorists should not have been able to gain access to the cockpit and one of the pilots should have been able to at least squawk 7600. So if it's terrorism then it's a suicide bomber would should be next to impossible with todays security.

Since the 777-200 had been reliable as hell in the 20 years of its service, the weather was great and no technical issues had been reported before disappearance, this puts the terrorism theory pretty high on the list. But as said above, it is just one possibility right now among many. It could even be that terrorists travelled on an aircraft that had a technical failure before they had even a chance to do anything.

True enough. I'd be surprised if it is a technical flaw. As you say, 20 years is a long time and unless something like a poor maintenance job had been carried out I'm putting this at the bottom of the list.

What ever it was, it must have been a massive instant failure of the whole aircraft, so communication was lost together with radar contact.

Indeed. No doubt the first thing to check for are the four corners as that'll go a long way to working out what went wrong.

 

[Urwumpe]

So if it's terrorism then it's a suicide bomber would should be next to impossible with todays security.

It would be a suicide bomber needed for such a rapid loss of aircraft without previous technical failures - a fight in the cockpit might have been heard, it was still in communication range.

But thats not impossible. Remember, we are talking about Malaysia there, which is almost to western standards, but only almost. That nobody noticed at the airport departure that the passport was actually stolen, should be a warning sign that security-wise, something was already VERY wrong.

Also, the biggest help for terrorists is always lack of imagination at the security. What for example if we had two terrorists, that each carried harmless components, that only combined result in an improvised bomb. I would do something like that. Somebody else sure as well.

2 hours of flight is a very long time to prepare something.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

It would be a suicide bomber needed for such a rapid loss of aircraft without previous technical failures - a fight in the cockpit might have been heard, it was still in communication range.

But thats not impossible. Remember, we are talking about Malaysia there, which is almost to western standards, but only almost. That nobody noticed at the airport departure that the passport was actually stolen, should be a warning sign that security-wise, something was already VERY wrong.

Also, the biggest help for terrorists is always lack of imagination at the security. What for example if we had two terrorists, that each carried harmless components, that only combined result in an improvised bomb. I would do something like that. Somebody else sure as well.

2 hours of flight is a very long time to prepare something.

Actually that's only ~40 minutes after take-off, not 2 hours - still a long time.

But who knows that's a bomb or sabotage? We need to see wreckage and the black boxes. Which can't be too long from now.

 

[Urwumpe]

Actually that's only ~40 minutes after take-off, not 2 hours - still a long time.

But who knows that's a bomb or sabotage? We need to see wreckage and the black boxes. Which can't be too long from now.

And we would need to see the distribution of the wreckage, that can often tell much more than the data of the FR.

40 minutes? The news channel here had reported two hours from take-off before the blackout cut the TV

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

It seems that a 3rd person (this time a Russian) may be using a stolen Russian passport as well (can't find the source). Apparently all 3 of them are flying on code-share tickets issued by China Southern Airlines (of which 7 were on the flight). Interesting..... :hmm:

In other news, the captain of MH370 is a fellow expert flight sim-er: http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/tribute-who-exactly-is-malaysia-airlines-captain-zaharie-shah-of-mh370.html

 

[Artlav]

It does not necessarily have to be so sinister.
Fake passports can be used by drug dealers or other criminals, not just terrorists.

As for sudden disappearance of the plane, it reminds me of Dynasty 006.
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_006"]China Airlines Flight 006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

That plane lost control in thick clouds due to the pilot getting disoriented, tumbled down until it fell below the clouds, where they managed to level it out by horizon.
AFAIK, they were too occupied the whole time to do any MAYDAY calls or anything.

Now, imagine the same thing happening here, only this time it was night instead of clouds, and there was no exiting the clouds from below, so it could tumble all the way to the sea.

It might not even had to tumble far - that 747 got it's wings bent, tail torn off and the landing gears dangling open from the g forces and aerodynamic stress of the tumble.
A little more tumble, or a bit weaker plane, and it could have just disintegrated in mid-air.

Don't forget - any pilot error or structural failure that is easy to imagine have been fixed or trained out of the pilots long time ago.

 

[Urwumpe]

Now, imagine the same thing happening here, only this time it was night instead of clouds, and there was no exiting the clouds from below, so it could tumble all the way to the sea.

It had been clear skies and half moon. Nothing that could usually cause disorientation at night. Also, the pilot counted as very experienced (over 18000 hours of experience with a 777) and also skilled in instrumental flight. Doubtful that he would fall prone to disorientation without doing a cross reference with the instruments.

What is also confusing is the fact that a plane of the same airline, that was 30 minutes ahead on a similar trajectory, claimed to have established contact with the plane after 1:30 local time, but had only heard silent mumbling.

 

[Artlav]

What is also confusing is the fact that a plane of the same airline, that was 30 minutes ahead on a similar trajectory, claimed to have established contact with the plane after 1:30 local time, but had only heard silent mumbling.

A ghost plane...
Helios Airways Flight 522.
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522"]Helios Airways Flight 522 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

Cabin pressurisation switch was left off, and the pilots were distracted by a different fault during ascent.
The result - they passed out from lack of oxygen, along with everyone on board.
The plane continued on autopilot until it ran out of fuel, with no signs of communications or trouble till it started circling the destination airport.
That one was actually quite scary...

It would take some peculiar circumstances for such a scenario to happen mid-flight, however.

 

[Urwumpe]

A ghost plane...
Helios Airways Flight 522.
Helios Airways Flight 522 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cabin pressurisation switch was left off, and the pilots were distracted by a different fault during ascent.
The result - they passed out from lack of oxygen, along with everyone on board.
The plane continued on autopilot until it ran out of fuel, with no signs of communications or trouble till it started circling the destination airport.
That one was actually quite scary...

It would take some peculiar circumstances for such a scenario to happen mid-flight, however.

Problem: Transponder was disabled at about 1:30. Aircraft had enough fuel for 7.5 hours further flight, should it fly on autopilot.

That cabin pressurization and transponder failed at the same time, is pretty unlikely by random chance.

 

[ISProgram]

It had been clear skies and half moon. Nothing that could usually cause disorientation at night. Also, the pilot counted as very experienced (over 18000 hours of experience with a 777) and also skilled in instrumental flight. Doubtful that he would fall prone to disorientation without doing a cross reference with the instruments.

What is also confusing is the fact that a plane of the same airline, that was 30 minutes ahead on a similar trajectory, claimed to have established contact with the plane after 1:30 local time, but had only heard silent mumbling.

It does not necessarily have to be so sinister.
Fake passports can be used by drug dealers or other criminals, not just terrorists.

As for sudden disappearance of the plane, it reminds me of Dynasty 006.
China Airlines Flight 006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That plane lost control in thick clouds due to the pilot getting disoriented, tumbled down until it fell below the clouds, where they managed to level it out by horizon.
AFAIK, they were too occupied the whole time to do any MAYDAY calls or anything.

Now, imagine the same thing happening here, only this time it was night instead of clouds, and there was no exiting the clouds from below, so it could tumble all the way to the sea.

It might not even had to tumble far - that 747 got it's wings bent, tail torn off and the landing gears dangling open from the g forces and aerodynamic stress of the tumble.
A little more tumble, or a bit weaker plane, and it could have just disintegrated in mid-air.

Don't forget - any pilot error or structural failure that is easy to imagine have been fixed or trained out of the pilots long time ago.

This may be indicative of such a event. In particular, read what it says just below the article's heading...