North Korean Sattelite Launch?

[SiberianTiger]

I wonder how, exactly, NK would verify the success of this flight, whether it's an orbital launch or a ballistic missile? Especially if it's a missile? Do they have downrange sensors? A tracking network?

They would come to space flight news forums and check the outcome up.

 

[Andy44]

They would come to space flight news forums and check the outcome up.

Touche!

Personally I am sympathetic to Namahage on this, especially since his family lives under the launch path. I don't feel there is any reason to really fear NK, but they are an angry, unpredictable bunch, and it's not a good idea to bet that someone else's rage and irrationality won't bite you, especially when they might have nukes.

If NK really wanted to have a responsible space program, they would find a launch site not on the Korean peninsula, with lots of water or vacant land downrange like France/ESA did. This was not a benign space launch attempt, it was a propaganda stunt done at the expense of the lives of Japanese civilians.

I am well aware of US propaganda regarding NK, especially since W's "axis of evil" BS, but NK gets no break from me here.

 

[tblaxland]

Looks like if the launch really were toward due east, it would fly over northern Honshu, then later on pass over Hawaii. By then it should be in orbit (or nearly there), so no Hawaii pass...no orbit.

Except those great circles do not account for the rotation of the Earth, nor nodal recession. If you launch on the heading he has suggested for a San Francisco intercept, by the time you get there, San Francisco has already well to the east. Try it yourself in Orbiter. If you shoot between Vladivostok and Sapporo you will come down the west coast of North America still comfortably over the Pacific.

They should have picked the path of least controversy. It's not like the location of the satellite orbit mattered much.

Personally I am sympathetic to Namahage on this, especially since his family lives under the launch path.

I am sympathetic too. The point I was trying to make earlier was that a more northerly launch azimuth may have increased the danger for Japan depending on the down range impact distance for the second stage because it would cross Hokkaido significantly further downrange. Any one have any data on where the second stage actually came down?

If NK really wanted to have a responsible space program, they would find a launch site not on the Korean peninsula, with lots of water or vacant land downrange like France/ESA did.

OK, fair point, but where? Would anyone be willing to negotiate a launch site with them?

 

[Andy44]

OK, fair point, but where? Would anyone be willing to negotiate a launch site with them?

Well, if nobody trusts them, that sounds like it's their problem. Nobody to blame but themselves for that.

What I'm wondering is why Japan deployed all thos ABM assets and didn't take a shot. Maybe they were only to shoot if it looked like it would hit Japan?

 

[MajorTom]

Except those great circles do not account for the rotation of the Earth, nor nodal recession. If you launch on the heading he has suggested for a San Francisco intercept, by the time you get there, San Francisco has already well to the east. Try it yourself in Orbiter. If you shoot between Vladivostok and Sapporo you will come down the west coast of North America still comfortably over the Pacific.

I agree. I suppose I should have said the Hawaii pass would be on a first-order approximation of the actual trajectory Regardless, I'm sure there were various tracking radars, including those from Japan and US Warships, that would have looked for the rocket and payload at various points along its path, and failing to see it after a certain point, concluded it fell into the Pacific.

Rather than indirect means, does anyone have actual confirmation of where it landed in the sea? A sighting, perhaps?

Cheers all-

 

[Eagle]

I am well aware of US propaganda regarding NK, especially since W's "axis of evil" BS, but NK gets no break from me here.

I'm not giving any breaks to countries that malnourished their people with for 50 years.

I've been looking for an image where it shows two soldiers DPRK and RK facing each other at the DMZ. The RK soldier was almost 2 feet taller.

 

[tblaxland]

Rather than indirect means, does anyone have actual confirmation of where it landed in the sea? A sighting, perhaps?

First stage landed pretty close to Akita, by this report from Yomiuri Shimbun:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090405dy01.htm

The government said the missile appeared to have flown over Japan, with the first booster stage splashing down 280 kilometers off the coast of Akita Prefecture in the Sea of Japan. The government has yet to confirm the second booster stage has come down although it initially said it appeared to have plunged into sea 1,270 kilometers off the eastern coast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean.

 

[BHawthorne]

What I'm wondering is why Japan deployed all thos ABM assets and didn't take a shot. Maybe they were only to shoot if it looked like it would hit Japan?

Do they need to actually fire off anything to check their capability for intercept? My guess is they got a lot of useful data in the tracking alone. My bet is most of those ships and mobile launchers were running intercept drills right along side waiting for the actual orders.

This might be the wrong place to ask, but shouldn't North Korea be focusing their money in places of better return on value right now? I highly doubt their spammy radio satellite does anything productive for their country other than ePeen status. This wasn't a productive commercial transmission satellite they tried to put into orbit, it's was just a pure waste of money.

 

[rodion_herrera]

Try it yourself in Orbiter. If you shoot between Vladivostok and Sapporo you will come down the west coast of North America still comfortably over the Pacific.

Maybe I should release a "pre-Alpha" (or whatever you call a "rough cut" ) version of my Taepodong 1 addon soon? I've been launching at between 39 and 41 degrees azimuth, and it does overfly the US West Coast cities. I've already achieved impact (3rd stage "dummy") several times in the Nevada/Vegas area, by playing around with 3rd stage weight and fuel on-board.

-RODION

 

[Andy44]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy44
What I'm wondering is why Japan deployed all thos ABM assets and didn't take a shot. Maybe they were only to shoot if
it looked like it would hit Japan?

Do they need to actually fire off anything to check their capability for intercept? My guess is they got a lot of useful data in the tracking alone. My bet is most of those ships and mobile launchers were running intercept drills right along side waiting for the actual orders.

Sure, but what good are the drills if you don't shoot at missiles flying towards your country? Maybe they determined, based on tracking and the fact that the rocket was still accelerating, that it was probably going to clear Japan and decided to just hold their fire and collect data on the NK missile. This way, we gather data on the Taepo Dong while NK gathers nothing on Japanese and American ABM capabilities.

This might be the wrong place to ask, but shouldn't North Korea be focusing their money in places of better return on value right now? I highly doubt their spammy radio satellite does anything productive for their country other than ePeen status. This wasn't a productive commercial transmission satellite they tried to put into orbit, it's was just a pure waste of money.

They are an insane communist dictatorship, with a completely centrally-planned economy (ie. no economy to speak of). They don't know how to do anything productive. Contrast with China, which learned that the concept of private property and capital actually increases the standard of living, and are now reaping the benefits.

 

[MajorTom]

Maybe I should release a "pre-Alpha" (or whatever you call a "rough cut" ) version of my Taepodong 1 addon soon? I've been launching at between 39 and 41 degrees azimuth, and it does overfly the US West Coast cities. I've already achieved impact (3rd stage "dummy") several times in the Nevada/Vegas area, by playing around with 3rd stage weight and fuel on-board.

-RODION

Please do...would love to try it out!

 

[SiberianTiger]

OK, fair point, but where? Would anyone be willing to negotiate a launch site with them?

Nauru?

 

[simonpro]

I mistakenly assumed you meant "best" flight path for all countries involved. Instead what you meant was the best flight path for N. Korea to succeed in getting to space - completely disregarding foreign opinion and safety of foreign civilian populations. How this is deemed "responsible" and "sensible" by you completely baffles me.

I suggest you learn a little more about it then. I also suggest you reread my post. I said they did everything right in appearing to be a responsible launch nation. They notified the right people and said the right things, they played it by the book. This doesn't mean they are responsible, just that they didn't want any additional problems over what would already be caused by launching in the direction of Japan.

Also, which particular flightpath could they have taken that wouldn't have reduced their standing in foreign opinion? I can't find one. There is no way to launch anything from N.K without passing over someone, and passing over Japan is the most efficient way, and results in a lot less problems than launching over China or S.K


[quoye]Am I angry? Yes. It happens when rogue nations launch experimental weapons platforms over my family's heads, dropping stages off both coasts. The buildup of materials and technology for WMD on the Korean penninsula is a serious matter for us that live here. What do you expect? Joy? Indifference even?[/quote]

Calmness. Getting worked up about things doesn't make them any better. Also, the flightpath of some (but not many) Chinese launches takes them over Japan, is this a problem for you?

It's unfortunate that you prefer to regard the whole affair as a curious science experiment - even amusing for you as evidenced by your parade of smiley faces and multiple comments made in jest. Forgive me if I don't laugh.

This is at heart a scientific forum. If it were a political forum then I'd talk more about the politics, but here I think we can have a better discussion on the actual launch vehicle and flight itself, rather than discussing for the nth time how N.K is a danger to us all.
And yes, I do find it amusing. It is pretty amusing how worked up a lot of people seem to be over this launch. It demonstrates nothing new, it doesn't pose much of a threat to Japan (malfunctions aside). The Japanese posturing was, in my opinion, just a show of force in an attempt to exercise some control over N.K. That posturing failed and N.K is probably quite happy about that. This was a pure propaganda exercise for both sides, and it seems to me to be quite clear who got the greater benefit from it.

Do they need to actually fire off anything to check their capability for intercept?

The fact that someone could've intercepted that missile is pretty straightforward. As you say, tracking it generates a lot more usable data than blowing it out the sky, and generates a hell of a lot less political repercussions.

IMHO, the orbital insertion path wouldn't have mattered a bit of difference because they were merely putting up a propaganda radio satellite.

Well it does matter, their launch vehicle isn't exactly beefy so they need a pretty efficient trajectory to even get into orbit (assuming that's what they were doing), and seeing as how they're going to piss someone off no matter where they launch it then they might as well take one of the more efficient trajectories available to them.

Btw, what's their ePeen? Haven't heard that expression before.

 

[rodion_herrera]

Please do...would love to try it out!

Ok. Perhaps this is also the best way for several people to actually work on it--I mean a tester can then create a list of all the flaws/errors in it, and thus paving the way for a better addon. I'll release it in a few days.

-RODION

 

[Hielor]

Btw, what's their ePeen? Haven't heard that expression before.

NSFW: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=e-peen

 

[simonpro]

NSFW: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=e-peen

I probably should've googled NSFW before I clicked that

 

[Hielor]

I probably should've googled NSFW before I clicked that

LOL, sorry, I thought *that* was a fairly standard acronym

 

[Urwumpe]

How North Korea calculates the launch windows for their rockets and how they verify all goes well.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/no_dong-launch-imagery-20090405.htm

 

[simonpro]

Yeah, it's pretty obvious they timed it to coincide with satellite overpasses. I hadn't realised it was timed with Worldview but if you look at the TLE there were two American and one Russian satellite above the Horizon at the rough time of the launch.

IMO that's pretty surprising considering their last one blew up so quickly after launch. They must've had quite a lot of confidence in their first stage to allow the world to see it so clearly.

 

[cjp]

How North Korea calculates the launch windows for their rockets and how they verify all goes well.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/no_dong-launch-imagery-20090405.htm

Fascinating picture. Weird shape. Is this really the picture as taken by the satellite?

If it is, then the part containing the rocket must be severely over-exposed, while somehow the ground isn't. Maybe this is an infrared image, and the rocket (or the air surrounding it) is somehow very hot? Hotter than its own exhaust gases?