North Korean Sattelite Launch?

[simonpro]

Also, those that know these type of things, was the flight path they used necessary for orbital insertion, or did they specifically pick that path to piss in the wind?

Well that depends upon the inclination of the orbit they wanted to achieve. Still, the path they picked was about the best they could manage. If NASA or ESA were to launch from there then they'd probably have picked a similar path.


To be honest, North Korea did everything right in trying to appear like a sensible and responsible launch nation. They notified the correct authorities and they described the launch vehicle and debris zones in sufficient detail as to provide warning.

 

[Namahage]

Well that depends upon the inclination of the orbit they wanted to achieve. Still, the path they picked was about the best they could manage. If NASA or ESA were to launch from there then they'd probably have picked a similar path.


To be honest, North Korea did everything right in trying to appear like a sensible and responsible launch nation. They notified the correct authorities and they described the launch vehicle and debris zones in sufficient detail as to provide warning.

Interesting. How did you determine this was the best flight path? Do you have an insider in the N Korea Space Agency? Did you look at a map? Are you familiar with population centers in Japan?

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

FAILED:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7984254.stm

 

[simonpro]

Interesting. How did you determine this was the best flight path?

Probably best if you wind your neck in a little bit. You seem somewhat angry.
I can figure out what would be the best (or at least a good) flightpath based on experience and mathematics. The performance of the rocket is fairly well understood and from that it's possible to perform an estimate as to the best way for it to achieve orbit.

Do you have an insider in the N Korea Space Agency?

North Korea doesn't have a space agency, it's run by the military.

Did you look at a map? Are you familiar with population centers in Japan?

I'm not familiar with the population centers of Japan, but I believe Seoul is the capital, yes?

 

[Urwumpe]

I'm not familiar with the population centers of Japan, but I believe Seoul is the capital, yes?

:lol:

 

[flaugher]

I guess if anything does scream out for international cooperation, it's spaceflight. Everybody's insecure whenever someone like NK wants to put a peaceful satellite into orbit because everybody knows that technology can be used for other purposes (including an advertisement for Kim's Discount Long-Range Missile Emporium). I wonder if the day will come when someone holds the GPS system hostage? Ground-based navaids are expensive, and many there are who want to go to a GPS only navigation system. Will a launch like this by NK put a delay in that? Probably not. Space is cheap.

 

[tblaxland]

Interesting. How did you determine this was the best flight path? Do you have an insider in the N Korea Space Agency? Did you look at a map? Are you familiar with population centers in Japan?

I don't believe you would need an insider in the North Korean Space Agency to make some some conclusions about this. Here's my research: I have found the launch inclination is 40.6° from Jonathan's Space Report (I very reliable source in my experience). The launch site has a latitude of approximately 40.85° (here), so we have a launch azimuth pretty close to 90°. That takes the launch vehicle over the northern part of Honshu.

That's my research, now for my speculations . A slightly more northward azimuth (one that would have split a line between Vladivostok and Sapporo) may have been safer from a range safety point of view. Firstly it would pass over less dense parts of Japan (67/sqkm for Hokkaido vs 95/sqkm for Akita) and would have a greater portion of the ground track over water. The ground track would be a little closer to the US, but not significantly so. That said, the 90° launch azimuth gives a greater chance of the satellite reaching orbit (and therefore less chance of coming down and hitting someone). In addition, an impact on Honshu may not have been a such a big risk, depending on the potential failure modes of the launch vehicle.

---------- Post added at 22:45 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------

North Korea doesn't have a space agency, it's run by the military.

The Korean Committee of Space Technology has been mentioned in the news recently (http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache...ogy&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au&client=firefox-a). I'm not sure how that relationship works but reading between the lines I suspect the launcher is military and the payload (comm sat?) is KCST.

 

[Urwumpe]

According to the US Space Surveillance Network, no object entered orbit. I am pretty sure, radio amateurs can also invalidate the North Korea claims of the satellite transmitting "The Song of General Kim Il Sung" and "The Song of General Kim Jung Il" now.

 

[simonpro]

The Korean Committee of Space Technology has been mentioned in the news recently (http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:...ient=firefox-a). I'm not sure how that relationship works but reading between the lines I suspect the launcher is military and the payload (comm sat?) is KCST.

That appears to be the case, yes. Comsat is probably a bit optimistic for the payload, though. Tape recorder+battery+radio is a better description

According to the US Space Surveillance Network, no object entered orbit. I am pretty sure, radio amateurs can also invalidate the North Korea claims of the satellite transmitting "The Song of General Kim Il Sung" and "The Song of General Kim Jung Il" now.

Still a lot of useful data gained by NK there though, perhaps they're aiming for third time lucky. Also, do they have any songs that don't contain Kim's name? The weekly pop chart must be a little repetitive...

 

[fort]

I'm pretty sure that the satellite is on orbit :

I can ear the song from here/euh...there:

http://fr.truveo.com/Hymne-national-de-la-Corée-du-Nord-version/id/639640146 (*)

In the french newspapers talking for the KCNA ( North Corean Press- i suppose - Agency ) the com satellite is named Kwangmyongsong-2, the launcher Unha-2.

(*) The translation of this song talk 'somewhere' about the "love for the work". Finally, they are not so different from us. And all that on sunday !

 

[Andy44]

I wonder how, exactly, NK would verify the success of this flight, whether it's an orbital launch or a ballistic missile? Especially if it's a missile? Do they have downrange sensors? A tracking network?

 

[Namahage]

the path they picked was about the best they could manage. .

I mistakenly assumed you meant "best" flight path for all countries involved. Instead what you meant was the best flight path for N. Korea to succeed in getting to space - completely disregarding foreign opinion and safety of foreign civilian populations. How this is deemed "responsible" and "sensible" by you completely baffles me.

Probably best if you wind your neck in a little bit. You seem somewhat angry.

Am I angry? Yes. It happens when rogue nations launch experimental weapons platforms over my family's heads, dropping stages off both coasts. The buildup of materials and technology for WMD on the Korean penninsula is a serious matter for us that live here. What do you expect? Joy? Indifference even?

It's unfortunate that you prefer to regard the whole affair as a curious science experiment - even amusing for you as evidenced by your parade of smiley faces and multiple comments made in jest. Forgive me if I don't laugh.

The gravity of the matter as perceived by me vs. other posters on this thread is becoming too wide a margin. I'll take a break and remove myself from the thread. Cheers.

 

[Urwumpe]

....rogue nations...

:lol: You mean Sealand? Or rather Pashtunistan?

 

[NukeET]

Looks like the "payload" got wet...

http://www.norad.mil/News/2009/040509.html


Damn the bad luck...

 

[RisingFury]

Still a lot of useful data gained by NK there though, perhaps they're aiming for third time lucky.

Or maybe they're copying the SpaceX flight model............

 

[MajorTom]

I don't believe you would need an insider in the North Korean Space Agency to make some some conclusions about this. Here's my research: I have found the launch inclination is 40.6° from Jonathan's Space Report (I very reliable source in my experience). The launch site has a latitude of approximately 40.85° (here), so we have a launch azimuth pretty close to 90°. That takes the launch vehicle over the northern part of Honshu.

That's my research, now for my speculations . A slightly more northward azimuth (one that would have split a line between Vladivostok and Sapporo) may have been safer from a range safety point of view. Firstly it would pass over less dense parts of Japan (67/sqkm for Hokkaido vs 95/sqkm for Akita) and would have a greater portion of the ground track over water. The ground track would be a little closer to the US, but not significantly so. That said, the 90° launch azimuth gives a greater chance of the satellite reaching orbit (and therefore less chance of coming down and hitting someone). In addition, an impact on Honshu may not have been a such a big risk, depending on the potential failure modes of the launch vehicle.

Thank you sir! I was looking for this sort of analysis online, but the news articles are more full of emotion than facts.

This article and its diagrams are a bit dated, but the trajectory analysis is interesting (and applies to the NK launch today):

http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2006/08/calculating-taepodong-2s-range.html

Looks like if the launch really were toward due east, it would fly over northern Honshu, then later on pass over Hawaii. By then it should be in orbit (or nearly there), so no Hawaii pass...no orbit.

 

[StarLost]

..snipped..

Am I angry? Yes. It happens when rogue nations launch experimental weapons platforms over my family's heads, dropping stages off both coasts. The buildup of materials and technology for WMD on the Korean penninsula is a serious matter for us that live here. What do you expect? Joy? Indifference even?

..snipped..

The gravity of the matter as perceived by me vs. other posters on this thread is becoming too wide a margin. I'll take a break and remove myself from the thread. Cheers.

This part of the thread should have been moved to Off-topic (general). But really, don't you think that eight years of unsubstantiated fearmongering over WMD is enough? Can you point out any example where one nation has used WMD against another nation, in anything except a declared war? (hmmm ... does using terrorists trained and sponsored by one country against another count as WMD?)

There are greater and more relevant problems in the world to try to solve than worrying over NK's firecracker. Perhaps now that NK has shown they have at least some semblance of technology, they can turn that technology to domestic improvements.

Or let it rile NKs people enough that they finally seek better alternatives in governing themselves.

You cannot free slaves. The slave must free himself.

 

[Urwumpe]

There are greater and more relevant problems in the world to try to solve than worrying over NK's firecracker. Perhaps now that NK has shown they have at least some semblance of technology, they can turn that technology to domestic improvements.

...

You cannot free slaves. The slave must free himself.

We could improve this by now accepting NK as mature and self-responsible nation and decide, that a country which can afford ballistic missiles, satellites and mini-submarines, does not need food aid. This would mean a few million people in NK might die before they dare to revolt. The price of freedom?

These people have as much chance of freeing themselves, as Germany had in 1945 of getting rid of Hitler and his fellow criminals (After all, aside of a war and daily bombings, most Germans had little problems with being suppressed). And Italy did sure not kill Mussolini when he still had power.

Don't forget, that freedom is no concept humans understand equally and freedom is also no natural need. We are social animals, who are used to limitations. We create authorities and destroy them, for creating new authorities. But only few of us will ever taste true freedom. We vote, without feeling responsible for our decisions. We endure suppression, as long as it does not kill us.

Humans have to learn, what freedom is. You can't just go and say "Be free!". You will be sure somebody will ask you "what shall we do now?". And it will not be different in NK. Unless you forcefully free the people there, and teach them your freedom, they will not understand your understanding of freedom.

I don't think you will find a peaceful way to freedom for NK, or have NK people do the stuff themselves. this already failed often enough in Africa, with one tyrant getting just replaced by a freedom fighter, who turned out to be just the next tyrant.

 

[Donamy]

You got that right, first hardship comes along, people start saying they were better off, before they were free.

 

[BHawthorne]

IMHO, the orbital insertion path wouldn't have mattered a bit of difference because they were merely putting up a propaganda radio satellite. They should have picked the path of least controversy. It's not like the location of the satellite orbit mattered much. The only thing that mattered really was their ePeen got stepped on because the satellite is now frightening sea creatures with really horrid sounding music.What the launch did prove is they could easily reach any part of Japan with a ballistic missile. I'm sure Japan just loves that type of propaganda.