Humor Random Comments Thread

[N_Molson]

I think this is over, Russia is not going to try anything like a full-scale invasion now.

The initial bet was that the ukrainian army would have been a joke. This was not the case, those men have shown great courage and self-control which is one can expect from true professional soldiers. My deepest respects to them. Their morale is very good, their government did a good job on that. And now they are armed-to-the-teeth with state-of-the-art NATO anti-tank and anti-air manpads. They may be outnumbered but still, good luck defeating that.

Has Putin really lost something ? Probably not that much. He moved legions of armored vehicles across the country, mostly on trains, I'd say anyway he had to do that to prove that Russian forces are capable of doing more than defending positions. That's what military drills are about, NATO does that too. Sure T-72s eat a huge lot of gasoil and some spare parts, but they have centuries of spare parts from the Soviet stock and petroleum is not a big issue for Russia, they have plenty of natural resources. What lacks is the cash, and well there soldiers were "underpaid as usual", at least they had something to do which was probably an happy change for them.

The fate of Ukraine remains undecided. A status quo is a possiblity. Even if the country doesn't join NATO officially, they now have NATO support, and that includes up-to-date weapons and ammunition. USA, France, Germany will be more than willing to supply weapons, even for free. It helps their industry, and they'll charge the ammo and maintenance later. On the other hand, Russia won't give up Crimea and Dombass. The western world can accept the loss of those genuinely pro-russian provinces, and Ukraine is just happy to live the day.

I was anxious this week-end, because Putin could have felt something like despair, and tried to use a "shock and awe" tactic using a couple of tactical nukes and exposing the troops to some limited fallout. NATO wasn't ready for this, and it could easily have escalated to a nuclear armaggedon. I'm happy I'm still here to share those thoughts tonight, and feel rather confident about the weeks to come

 

[Urwumpe]

I think this is over, Russia is not going to try anything like a full-scale invasion now.

I disagree there. None of the conflicts between Russia, Ukraine and other stakeholders in this mess are resolved now, Russian propaganda including Putin had been busy forming a huge level of hostility against Ukraine (which is more or less hostile to Russia for about 8 years now, for some reason). Russia does still have 70% of its army ready to march on Ukraine.

I suspect, that there is a small difference between what the German chancellor said to the press and what was really discussed with Putin. The official position is a reminder about the joint responsibility of european statemen to not let another war happen in Europe. Yes, the usual stuff. Putin managed to not mention the German chancellor at all in his speech. Not unexpected, yes, that cold is the relation between Germany and Russia after many years of Merkel. Putin must have been very surprised, that Scholz is not at all like some former German chancellor how working for the Russian government (despite being from the same Party), but much more similar to Merkel. Still even Putin dogwhistled by describing the situation in Ukraine as "close to a genocide". You can't tell your population horror stories about genocides in Ukraine over years and then choose to not do anything about it.

So, risk of war over? Not at all. But it is possible, that attacking the Ukraine is now appearing as painful as not attacking it. Or even more painful than that. If Putin has some Generals that are worth their money, he won't attack Wednesday. He will wait for Thursday. Calm weather over Ukraine, pretty clear sky... and storm over western Europe preventing large-scale NATO air operations.

 

[N_Molson]

He will wait for Thursday.

And what will be the excuse not for attacking after that ? You can be wrong too. ?

 

[Urwumpe]

And what will be the excuse not for attacking after that ? You can be wrong too. ?

An attack is no Japanese train. There can be many factors that can delay an attack - and still the plan to attack prevails.

What we need to pay attention to, is not a specific date, but if the ability to attack within the next 24 hours is gone. That would already mean a major reduction of the threat level, even if Russia would still have the ability to attack within a week. If the situation normalized to a purely defensive position at the border, Russia could still attack - but not without days of preparations to get the logistic chains setup again.

Right now, Russia has enough front-line and support troops around for a sudden attack. Once the bases begin to be less occupied, the risk will drop. Of course, we will also pay attention to WHERE the many weapons and vehicles are going to. Its easy to hide reinforcements for the rebels in the Donbas when many units are moving back home.

The next best opportunity would be Thursday, especially if the weather in Europe could make Global Hawk flights from Sicily harder or impossible.

 

[Linguofreak]

Western media reports that Russia is pulling out troops now. Seems like Putin is going to try to look the Western world like a fool and saying that it was just our war propaganda...

Could also be the setup to a false flag:

"Those @$#& attacked us while we were withdrawing! Now we have to invade!"

 

[TheShuttleExperience]

I think this is over, Russia is not going to try anything like a full-scale invasion now.

This is only over in case NATO does not expand I think. Russia is there. They are watching and they could act quickly. That‘s what this big show is made for...

 

[Urwumpe]

This is only over in case NATO does not expand I think. Russia is there. They are watching and they could act quickly. That‘s what this big show is made for...

Except that if it expands, it would be too late. But as long as Russia can block a peaceful solution to the territorial conflicts of Ukraine, Ukraine can't join the NATO anyway under the current rules. Making an exception for Ukraine, while Georgia AND North-Macedonia had to go the full MAP tour, would also lead to more conflicts and would need way better arguments than back in 2008, when Condolezza Rice suggested exactly that.

So, its really doubtful it will happen under the tenure of any politician active today. Including Putin. And if it happens, its at least tolerable for Russia, because Russia had been accepting a peaceful settlement with Ukraine as well then.

 

[steph]

Still going on. Not sure what the 'retreat' was about, but it doesn't look to be happening. Around 7000 more troops arrived. Turns out Ukraine (or NATO) discovered a pontoon bridge in Belarus, leading to the Ukraine border, in the radioactive exclusion zone. And, as of Thursday morning, there's shelling in Luhansk (I think) .Pro-russians say it's the Ukrainians , they say it's the Russians. They hit mostly civilian areas, including a kindergarten (of course).

Also, Putin recently held a press conference where he bragged that the US is agreeing to Russia's demands, again claimed that Ukraine didn't exist before 1922 and was 'created' by Lenin, and said that RUssian economy is going so well that they're gearing it towards social aid. Oh yes, and RUssia's 'foreign agent' laws are liberal compared to those in US.

Edit: forgot to mention the obsessive yapping about how NATO supposedly 'promised' not to extend eastwards, although I think that would break the 1975 Helsinki Act

 

[clipper]

Russian media has been fixated for the past couple of days on 'mass graves' in Donbas and talks of genocide going on against the pro-Russian populace there and beyond on behalf of Ukrainian forces and the likes of Azov Battalion, drawing comparisons to Bosnia in the 90s among others (which ironically they helped facilitate in more than one way but that's another can of worms). I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the ultimate justification for an invasion (whether limited to separatist regions or a full-blown one targeting Kyiv and beyond) which might prove easier than bothering to come up with an elaborate false flag operation of sorts like the US intelligence had warned about on multiple occasions by now.

I'm afraid this sh*tstorm is far from over.

 

[TheShuttleExperience]

Looks like the most dangerous situation for decades.

 

[steph]

Russian media has been fixated for the past couple of days on 'mass graves' in Donbas and talks of genocide going on against the pro-Russian populace there and beyond on behalf of Ukrainian forces and the likes of Azov Battalion, drawing comparisons to Bosnia in the 90s among others (which ironically they helped facilitate in more than one way but that's another can of worms). I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the ultimate justification for an invasion (whether limited to separatist regions or a full-blown one targeting Kyiv and beyond) which might prove easier than bothering to come up with an elaborate false flag operation of sorts like the US intelligence had warned about on multiple occasions by now.

I'm afraid this sh*tstorm is far from over.

I don't know exactly, but in the chaos that was there in 2014, stuff like that could have happened. Let's not forget, thousands died there. But that doesn't automatically mean that the ukrainians did it. In these cases, it's usually the majority 'cleansing' the minorities, and the majority there is russian. One could easily imagine, during the lawlesness that followed, one ' leader' or another trying to purge former Ukrainian govt institutions or settling their debts with former Ukrainian authorities etc Edit : especially since at least some of the new 'leadership' seemed recruited from the local mob

Edit:; as far as the republics go, I think letting pro-russians grab them like that was the worst way to do it, but they could have had increased independence through federalisation etc. I have a feeling Ukraine, like other former soviet countries, was far from being a beacon of equality, even before Euromaidan. There is this thing, it's sort of immoral to keep hold of regions that are not only majoritarily russian, but pro-russian as well. and Ukraine had this problem before. Ideally solved by impartial referendums and increased autonomy, but that ship has sailed. On the other hand, Russia doesn't really 'want' those areas, they just want to break them apart.

I know, I know, eastern Ukraine is the industrial 'heart' of Ukraine, but one could envisage a peaceful split along ethnic lines WITHOUT the thing going full DMZ all over again. Western Ukraine with Kyiv etc goes on its merry way to EU and NATO, and the east remains pro-Russian. They could do a passport thing like Romania did with Moldova, so that instead of trying to re-unify, the eastern ukrainians could get west-ukrainians passports easily and just move over.

But that probably won't work either, since Putin doesn't even want the 'finlandization' of a neutral Ukraine. Ukraine, as it is, is already a buffer state and joining NATO and EU is a long way away not only because of Russia, but because there are many internal reforms to be done to be eligible. The real danger for him is Ukraine starting to take its own decisions without phoning the Kremlin first, be it economically or otherwise. The risk isn't Ukraine getting 'estranged' or peeled off from Russia, the risk is that they're so close anyways culturally etc that Ukraine becomes an example of democracy and outperforms Russia, thus making him look bad.

 

[clipper]

...aand Russia just expelled the US deputy ambassador.

Россия выслала заместителя посла США Гормана

Заместителя посла США в Москве Барта Гормана выслали из России, заявил РИА Новости пресс-секретарь дипмиссии Джейсон Ребхольц. РИА Новости, 17.02.2022

ria.ru

 

[jedidia]

drawing comparisons to Bosnia in the 90s among others

Comparisons to Bosnia in the 90s are very appropriate indeed. Milosevic, too, justified the actions of the JNA on the grounds of (mostly fictional and partly fabricated) violence against serbs. The situation was a bit more confusing back then because they were at that point still all technically the same nation, but Putin has been using the exact same playbook in the Krim as Milosevic used back then. So, not surprising he'd do it again. The darn thing just works...

 

[steph]

Comparisons to Bosnia in the 90s are very appropriate indeed. Milosevic, too, justified the actions of the JNA on the grounds of (mostly fictional and partly fabricated) violence against serbs. The situation was a bit more confusing back then because they were at that point still all technically the same nation, but Putin has been using the exact same playbook in the Krim as Milosevic used back then. So, not surprising he'd do it again. The darn thing just works...

Did you say Bosnia? Weird, it seems like they're in the news again for some reason https://euobserver.com/world/154363

 

[jedidia]

Weird, it seems like they're in the news again for some reason

It's an election year. Pretty standard stuff...
It's getting worse though, as could be expected when you hype everybody up for secession every four years. One of these times, Dodik will drop the ball and it'll snowball right out of his control. Maybe it's this year... maybe not. It would be rather earlier than I anticipated, I'll admit. I wasn't expecting another bosnian war for at least 10 years.

 

[clipper]

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone willing to fight a war these days in Bosnia; people are permanently leaving each year by tens of thousands. Even your hardcore Serb nationalists in Bosnia who keep a picture of whoever their favorite war criminal is under their pillow would jump on the first opportunity to live in Austria or Germany rather than risk dying for a territory their rapidly shrinking population doesn't even need and for a leader whose children are living in some Western capital in luxury as courtesy of taxpayer money.

 

[jedidia]

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone willing to fight a war these days in Bosnia

I'm not quite so sure. Yes, there's precious few who will fight for anything idealistic. I do think however you will find enough that will just fight out of spite, frustration, anger or hatred. It's not going to be a war as big as the last one, of course. WIthout the JNAs heavy artillery there won't be that much fireworks at the party, and Serbia propper is certainly not going to put its foot into that mess (though some serbian "freelancers" quite probably will, as will some random Jihadis...).

 

[steph]

 

[N_Molson]

A ferry boat Euroferry Olympia from Grimaldi Lines (ITA) sailing the Ionian sea was on fire tonight around 4:30 and had to be evacuated. All the 237 passengers and 51 crew members successfully boarded the lifeboats, no casualties reported.

It sure looks quite bad, fire at sea is always a very serious problem !

 

[Urwumpe]

What happened, some bad cargo on a truck? Luckily all made it into the lifeboats, I hope they are already ashore.