Low dollar: Mostly caused by speculation, not by real economic situation. While the economic situation is pretty bad (with the high finance being badly damaged and the dependency on oil making things worse), it is not as bad as represented in the low dollar.
Foreign problems: Actually, the USA have now less foreign problems - and more domestic. Afghanistan is now a domestic US problem, as much as Iraq. It might look like different countries, but actually, it is the US citizen which has to pay the bills for both.
Iran is a constant, but also in Iran, things slowly move, thanks to a stronger EU becoming a important third way in the middle east. The USA might do well with forcing the EU to take more responsibility, which is what both Obama and McCain plan to do.
Russia is also no foreign problem for the USA. Russia might be a rival in many fields, but they are no longer the enemy. China is more a economic problem, as a foreign politics problem. They are closer to the USA in their politics, as it is good for the USA.
So, the foreign problems both candidates would have to tackle are:
- Remove Iraq from the US budget. Ideally with making a profit to offset the huge costs into this project.
- War against terror. The Bush way of total anti-terror warfare failed. Not only technically, but also morally. Both candidates not only have the chance to do it different - they need to do it. It is time to become the good guys again. The major supporters of international terrorism hide behind long-term US allies. Maybe it is time to evaluate their loyalty.
- The slow death of the UN. The UN was already weak because of the abusive politics of their members, and the latest US politics of ignoring it did not improve the situation. If this symbol should be left to die, it is required to find a replacement of multilateralism.
- Cuba & South America. Things are changing quickly there. More and more countries react with open hostility to US influence. How to deal with this tendency and maybe reverse it? Charm will be needed more than power now.
- Africa: Many important resources are in the hands of hostile kleptocraties. The African Union is even weaker as the UN, so it will be no aid of improving the situation. Without social peace and economic freedom in Africa, these resources will fall into the hands of smugglers, terrorists and (even worse) China.
- Afghanistan. It's only one step away from becoming a new failed state and kleptocraty. The time of using military power for fixing political problems there are gone, now it is time to ensure, the efforts of the last years don't get killed by corruption and smuggling.
- EU: No problem, but pretty US critical. Again, more charm will be needed here. Without a believable USA, the chance that people in Europe will believe in a strong, federalist EU will be near zero.
- Kosovo: A EU problem. The US only have to make sure it stays one and Russia let's it be one.
Did I miss something in my analysis?
From an outsider POV, I think that the reason why Obama was chosen over Clinton (even though she conceded) was that American people are looking for a leader who has not come from a 'Power' base, but is more in touch with the Average American and has less spin. Therefore I think Obama would be the next president. Question is, do you want the presidency in the current low dollar and foreign problem that the USA have?
