News COVID-19 pandemic

[LowEarthOrbit]

Well, it's getting pretty bad in Serbia. Worse than it was back in April. I'm really having mixed thoughts about COVID-19 :hmm:

 

[GLS]

The Coronavirus Is Crippling Baikonur, the City That Sends Humans Into Space

Covid-19 came late to the Kazakh city rented by Russia. It now threatens to overrun the vital spaceport.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/07/20/the-coronavirus-is-crippling-baikonur-the-city-that-sends-humans-into-space-a70927

 

[Notebook]

A pet cat has tested positive in the UK for the strain of coronavirus that is causing the current pandemic.

Experts say it is the first confirmed case of infection in an animal in the UK but does not mean the disease is being spread to people by their pets.

It's thought the cat caught coronavirus from its owner, who had previously tested positive for the virus. Both have now recovered.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53552557

Watch out if your moggie starts coughing!

 

[Urwumpe]

Advantages of Corona - suddenly its no problem to use the smartphone for buying tickets and gaining entrance.... even to the local public indoor pool. (Because of the entry limitations because of the pandemic, no entry without buying tickets in advance, with defined time of entry and fixed duration, 30€ fine, if you exceed your time)

 

[SUPA-FNX]

How much does Russia, India and China lie about their death numbers ?

Any links or data...or educated guess ? :huh:

 

[Urwumpe]

How much does Russia, India and China lie about their death numbers ?

Any links or data...or educated guess ? :huh:

Not yet - but I am sure, some scientists will deduce how likely the official numbers are correct next year. Now it is too early to notice any suddenly disappearing persons or high number of permanently disabled people dropping out of work.

I would also include the USA to that list - since the numbers go to the White House and not to the CDC, the number of new cases suddenly stagnates after climbing rapidly. Could be a random event... but who trusts this?

 

[Artlav]

For Russia, i expect the numbers to be close for Moscow and SPb, as many different sources (including medical side of my family) match up.
I know them to be fake for several notorious regions, from purely mathematical impossibility of having so many identical numbers as well as reputation of making stuff up.
For the bulk of the country, i find them plausible.

Friends from India tend to mistrust their numbers, saying the country is simply too big and testing too limited in proportion.
Serological surveys seem to show 57% antibody prevalence in Mumbai slums, which suggest the numbers are way below the fact.

No idea about China, other than their reputation of keeping stuff secret.

 

[Linguofreak]

No idea about China, other than their reputation of keeping stuff secret.

Yeah, my view is:

1) China's numbers are almost certainly doctored.
2) I can't imagine them being doctored to the tune of more than one order of magnitude, which means they still got off incredibly lightly and really adds to the catastrophe: they remain strong while the west is crippled.

Also, "SPb": is that Saint Petersburg?

 

[Artlav]

Also, "SPb": is that Saint Petersburg?

Yeah, a standard abbreviation for it here. Maybe not as common in English.

 

[Linguofreak]

I would also include the USA to that list - since the numbers go to the White House and not to the CDC, the number of new cases suddenly stagnates after climbing rapidly. Could be a random event... but who trusts this?

You have to keep in mind that this is only for federal reporting. The White House doesn't have too much freedom to depart from the real numbers, because their number has to be within spitting distance of the sum of state numbers.

This second spike in the US is largely a matter of the epidemic peaking in other states several months after it peaked in the NYC area. Those states all had recently been showing linear increases and are now sublinear. Now, the national numbers do appear to be leveling off somewhat more rapidly than the state numbers, which is concerning, but at the same time, the state numbers I'm seeing are smoothed, and the national numbers aren't (showing a cycle on a weekly scale), which makes direct comparison in the short term difficult.

I have heard allegations of certain states doctoring their numbers, but this appears to mostly have been stuff like overcounting negative test results, as opposed to undercounting positive cases.

---------- Post added at 14:27 ---------- Previous post was at 14:23 ----------

Yeah, a standard abbreviation for it here. Maybe not as common in English.

Not really. I don't think the city is spoken of often enough to have an abbreviation.

NYC has enough world prominence that I'd expect that abbreviation to be internationally known, but probably not DFW (Dallas - Fort Worth)?

 

[Notebook]

Yes, DFW, but not SPb.
Did get it with the context eventually.

 

[Quick_Nick]

Handy plotting tool for death stats:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

This is what I think will matter most for looking back on the whole pandemic.

Debate all you like about whether COVID was over or under attributed to illnesses and death.
But try to explain why TOTAL deaths went so damn far above normal. Real bodies in real graves.
And this is WITH lockdowns.
Not looking forward to schools opening...

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk

 

[SUPA-FNX]

There seems to have been a trend where pneunomia related deaths have not been put into COVID-19 category as the victims have not reached the hospital and not been diagnosed with Covid-19.
Some very big eastern ( of Finland ) cities have had 6 x more pneumonia related deaths than normally.
In Wuhan 47 000+ urns were returned to relatives ( after pandemic was battled out ) when only 4 000 + Covid-19 related deaths were reported.

Links to these can be found.

 

[4throck]

But try to explain why TOTAL deaths went so damn far above normal. Real bodies in real graves.

Similar graphs here for world countries:

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

 

[Notebook]

England isn't the place to be this year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53592881

 

[Linguofreak]

Interesting observations from the US data excess death data:

1) There is something of a yearly cycle in death rates.
2) The peak in 2018 was unusually high.
3) The 2020 COVID peaks in most US jurisdictions other than NY, even those that are fairly hard hit, aren't that much higher than the 2018 peak.
4) The COVID peak in those jurisdictions, however, is out of phase with the normal peak, so the associated number of excess deaths is greater.

 

[mahdavi3d]

 

[RisingFury]

1) There is something of a yearly cycle in death rates.

Flu.

2) The peak in 2018 was unusually high.

Particularly bad flu season.

3) The 2020 COVID peaks in most US jurisdictions other than NY, even those that are fairly hard hit, aren't that much higher than the 2018 peak.

It's not just about the height, but width as well. The "height" is also deceptive. It displays all causes of death, with heart disease and cancer being the two leading ones in US. During the height of the epidemic in hard hit areas, COVID became the leading cause of death for Americans by far and even averaged across the country, it was the leading cause of death for a while.

4) The COVID peak in those jurisdictions, however, is out of phase with the normal peak, so the associated number of excess deaths is greater.

And we're lucky COVID did not coincide with the flu season. Europe is starting to see a rise in cases again and it's really bad in the US. If this continues, we'll push the epidemic into the flu season and really stretch our resources.

 

[tl8]

And we're lucky COVID did not coincide with the flu season. Europe is starting to see a rise in cases again and it's really bad in the US. If this continues, we'll push the epidemic into the flu season and really stretch our resources.

Early data on that.
Australia had 440 deaths due to Flu last year, this year to date it is 40.


The measures that defeat COVID-19 also defeat the flu.

 

[Linguofreak]

It's not just about the height, but width as well. The "height" is also deceptive. It displays all causes of death, with heart disease and cancer being the two leading ones in US. During the height of the epidemic in hard hit areas, COVID became the leading cause of death for Americans by far and even averaged across the country, it was the leading cause of death for a while.

But death rate is at least somewhat of a proxy for health care load, as dying people are fairly likely to end up in ICU whatever the cause of death. So if instantaneous death rates remain comparable to those observed in past events that did not overload the health care system, then even if they remain fairly high for an extended period, things will remain more or less under control. Compare this to the situation in NYC, where the health care system collapsed under the strain.

The big difference between TX, FL, CA today and NY a few months ago is that most of the NY cases were concentrated in NYC, whereas the cases in the other three states, though similar in number to NY, are spread out.

So the height of the curve relative to previous heights matters quite a bit.