News COVID-19 pandemic

What will happen after the Corona epidemic?


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tl8

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And we're lucky COVID did not coincide with the flu season. Europe is starting to see a rise in cases again and it's really bad in the US. If this continues, we'll push the epidemic into the flu season and really stretch our resources.


Early data on that.
Australia had 440 deaths due to Flu last year, this year to date it is 40.


The measures that defeat COVID-19 also defeat the flu.
 

Linguofreak

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It's not just about the height, but width as well. The "height" is also deceptive. It displays all causes of death, with heart disease and cancer being the two leading ones in US. During the height of the epidemic in hard hit areas, COVID became the leading cause of death for Americans by far and even averaged across the country, it was the leading cause of death for a while.

But death rate is at least somewhat of a proxy for health care load, as dying people are fairly likely to end up in ICU whatever the cause of death. So if instantaneous death rates remain comparable to those observed in past events that did not overload the health care system, then even if they remain fairly high for an extended period, things will remain more or less under control. Compare this to the situation in NYC, where the health care system collapsed under the strain.

The big difference between TX, FL, CA today and NY a few months ago is that most of the NY cases were concentrated in NYC, whereas the cases in the other three states, though similar in number to NY, are spread out.

So the height of the curve relative to previous heights matters quite a bit.
 

jedidia

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Outch! After discovering a bug that lead to places of infection ending up in the wrong category, the Swiss government will have to revise its entire strategy. The data was reconstructible, so after assuming for the past month that Covid-19 spread foremost through partying in clubs, it now turns out that clubs account for a minimum of infections, while family gatherings are spearheading the new wave.

Well, I'm glad they found out before locking down all the clubs, condemning them to bankruptcy. I'm also glad I work on software that is mostly inconsequential... :shifty:
 

Notebook

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But during any winter, deaths always increase by many thousands.

The worst one of recent memory(of Winter Flu) was three years ago when an extra 15,000 more people died in England and Wales than had on average in the previous five winters.

It was a cold winter, the strain of flu was a little more virulent than normal and the vaccine available was not particularly effective.

This year in the fight against coronavirus there is no vaccine and very limited immunity.

Keeping the death toll anywhere near zero is, sadly, going to be impossible.

If there's any more cheery news...
 
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Urwumpe

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We now have a seven day incidence of 66.7 cases per 100,000 people in our rural district (233 persons/km²).

So much to the plans of the daughter to celebrate her birthday in some weeks with her friends from school.

Damn Covidiots!
 

soumya-8974

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It is very uncertain how the world will look like after the COVID-19 era. I will be surprised to wear masks and follow distancing after the COVID-19 era. Due to the tough days of 2020, many people are eagered to see the appearance of the world in 2021.

COVID-19 vaccine (excluding the Russian Sputnik 5, named after an orbiting ball that shook the USA) will never takeoff in 2020. We have to wait until March 2021 for a shot of the vaccine. Until then, any COVID-19 vaccines will be limited to the rich and prosperous people, IMO.

Also, look at our reaction towards swine flu in 2009: https://www.orbiter-forum.com/threads/who-declares-first-21st-century-pandemic.7686/
 
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Urwumpe

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Same in Germany - we are faster since the end of the fall holidays than the simple extrapolation that Merkel used for explaining the urgency (She predicted 19000 new infections per day on christmas using simple math - we are at it now).

We are going into a 4 week circuit break from next week on. Many businesses and public institutions will get closed or restricted, no tourism in Germany. But the big places to catch the disease and share it with your best friends will remain open: Schools & Kindergarten, no further special restrictions for workplaces, its all up to your employers definition of work safety now.
 

jedidia

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But the big places to catch the disease and share it with your best friends will remain open: Schools & Kindergarten

Same in Switzerland, though honestly I'm glad for that... Being locked up 24/7 with a special needs child and his "normal" brother (I do not really believe in the concept of a normal child anymore...) almost drove me and my wife crazy. We'd probably survive another such period, but honestly even the literal end of the world sounds temptingly inviting when faced with that perspective again.

Also, reopening schools in Switzerland had virtually no impact on the case numbers, while opening up other areas lead to measurable increases, so the little buggers do seem to be more resilient against catching and spreading the virus.
 
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