News COVID-19 pandemic

[Urwumpe]

Many people in Europe behave like mules... the governments put some carrots in front of them so they carry on with the trot, unable to realize that they will never reach their goal, simply because the goal post is moving all the time. Evidence? Changes next week. Metrics? Numbers will move willy-nilly. Medics or vaccines available? New mutation or viruses pop up suddenly.

(I find this insulting for mules, which are pretty intelligent animals, but thats another topic...)

That is exactly what you get if you react too slow.... While you are still discussing the problem of the engine flame-out, the problem of crashing into the next mountain suddenly becomes more urgent. So change the metrics. Instead of RPM, you now have to talk about FPM and feet above ground.

Any infected person is one lab vat more for the virus to evolve, the more people are infected, the more successful mutations you will find. Nobody talks about unsuccessful mutations, likely trillions of those never made it. Its all simple math. Instead of talking how we make sure that the virus stays contained, we can now discuss how to prevent a much better adapted virus from rolling over us, that is already widespread in the country - because our way of governance failed.

We did not kick the butt of the first politician to even suggest opening ski resorts in Tyrol midway into an epidemic wave. Because it was utterly stupid. No, we treated this idea like it was a valid argument among many. Now we have people talking ${excrement} about opening schools again because children are not getting ill that often. In a few weeks, we can discuss why we allowed to let our children get permanently disabled or killed, because the new strains do not behave like the old one. That is sure worth it, but that is what you get when idiots even treat measles as if it is a completely harmless disease.

Also, we did not kick those politicians and "experts", who suggested that a permanent state of epidemic and mild lockdown is better for our economy than shutting everything non-essential down for some weeks and then stay alert. It is not. It is maybe better than not doing anything at all. But that is easy in the current situation.

So, you want to complain about never reaching a goal? What are you expecting if nobody is even doing anything for getting towards this goal?

 

[N_Molson]

Well, the thing is that, at least in France, we had a relatively "quiet" Summer. Some say it was only thanks to the hard lockdown in Spring 2020, others say its seasonality. So I was curious if it correlates. Seems it doesn't, or maybe its another "trait" the virus acquired/de-acquired.

I agree very much it doesn't look good. Now yes people behave like mules, that's not new. The fact is that things are relatively under control in France, there's no much more unrest that there has been those last years. The situation and the social order is probably extremely volatile. I study Philosophy and one of our teachers made an interesting parallel yesterday with Thomas HOBBES masterpiece the Leviathan (1651). The drawing on the cover is a quite complex and heavily symbolic representation of a sovereign State and its people. The empty and "clean" city is the symbol of (extreme) social order, and its interesting to notice that the only characters present in the city are 1) a group of soldiers, with guns on the shoulder (police, security provided by enforcing law and order) 2) two weird characters with "long noses" : those are plague doctors, which were wearing in the middle ages and later such strange masks sort of supposed to protect them (security, global health, sanitation, plague control - usually obtained by locking diseased up in their houses and even setting fire -).



The idea HOBBES and later other put forward and many modern states are built upon is that people consent to many sacrifices, to work hard and obey law in exchange from security against violence (thieving, murdering, rioting...) and disease (bubonic plague outbreaks were still common by HOBBES time, and locking up the diseased plus providing basic sanitation in big towns was the only thing to do).

So yes, it seems that the way things are going right now, that last "condition of obedience" is getting violated : to say it in different words, people might at some point revert to indivdualistic survival if they feel they are doomed and the State can't help them. HOBBES would say that extreme measures like hard lockdowns, martial order and closing borders not only between countries but also cities and regions (physically, laying barbedwire and soldiers across them) is a indeed cruel thing, but nevertheless necessary in order to maintain the integrity of the social pact and the State itself...

Having worked and lived in Marocco last year (authoritarian "divine right" monarchy, like you had in Europe by HOBBES time) I have the feeling that democracies will have much more trouble dealing with the current situation than more authoritarian countries ; because they will hesitate taking "cruel" measures that alas are a matter of life and death, and people are used to a "luxury" of individual liberties ; even though its often only an illusion.

That's... not... good...

 

[Face]

(I find this insulting for mules, which are pretty intelligent animals, but thats another topic...)

IF it is ever possible in my life-time to go to a zoo again, I will find the next mule and apologize .

So, you want to complain about never reaching a goal? What are you expecting if nobody is even doing anything for getting towards this goal?

Oh, I don't want to complain, just saying what I am observing lately around me. To be honest, I never expected much more from my fellow citizens than to behave like individual humans. It just seems like some governments expect them to act more like ants or bees: sacrificing themselves for the greater good of the hive. Just as if similar social experiments in the past with the same premise (e.g. communism) were such incredible huge success-stories.

On the topic of tyrolean mumbojumbo: let's see if we get another Andreas Hofer now that our own military is ordered to assist in enforcing the local "borders". It is really starting to look like a bad joke there.

 

[Urwumpe]

It just seems like some governments expect them to act more like ants or bees: sacrificing themselves for the greater good of the hive.

Yeah. Hug a virus, save the economy.

 

[Urwumpe]

A nice summary of what went wrong in Germany:

Opinion | How Germany Lost Control of the Virus (Published 2021)

The country excelled during the first wave. What went wrong the second time around?

www.nytimes.com

 

[4throck]

Nice article. As they say, it's down to politics.

The same happened here with elections in January.
Restrictions were lifted in December because of Christmas, but even though cases rose immediately, no action was taken until the elections.
The official slogan was "voting is safe" .
Once the elections were over, total lockdown. Lol, I wonder how many of those that voted are now dead !

 

[Urwumpe]

It could even explain, why exactly those minister presidents, whose state have no upcoming elections or have really stable political conditions (= no fear to lose the next election), have the most reasonable position there.... For example Markus Söder, who usually, like tradition in the CSU party, is extremely volatile in bavarian exceptionalism and xenophobia, but in the pandemic is playing the voice of reason (despite not all going well in Bavaria as well - but better than elsewhere).

Maybe out of the motivation to increase his chances of becoming successor of Merkel - he is way more popular than the candidate of the CDU, Armin Laschet. (Explaining the relation between CDU and CSU might take a while longer, its German political history).

 

[Screamer7]

@Screamer7: speaking of which, did the Southern Summer help with the pandemic ? Right now its mid/end Summer for you, right ? Here in Europe many hope that thing will ease in Summer...

Not sure. But I suspect it might help a little.
Plenty of sunshine and warm weather.
We tend to be outside in the open versus locked down in our houses because of the cold weather
The virus doesn't like UV rays as much.
I fear the looming winter months.
But again, the South African winters are not as cold as in Europe or the USA.
It is cold, but there is plenty of sunshine.
Only the daylight is much shorter than in the summer months.

 

[jedidia]

those are plague doctors, which were wearing in the middle ages and later such strange masks sort of supposed to protect them

A bit OT, but the masks did offer some protection them from certain diseases, possibly better than our masks are protecting us (considering they were full-face leather masks). The strange "Beak" is nothing esotheric. It was filled with strongly scented herbs to neutralise the stench of decay, since they quite often worked around dead people. Being able to not throw up in such a contraption is a rather important usability feature.

(I find this insulting for mules, which are pretty intelligent animals, but thats another topic...)

From my time in Bosnia, I can tell you that there's pretty much nothing a Mule will take offense at...

 

[N_Molson]

We tend to be outside in the open versus locked down in our houses because of the cold weather

I think that one is especially important.

 

[Sbb1413]

I'm afraid there isn't much hope for older people. Their immune system doesn't respond to the vaccine that well.
And because vaccination is slow, the virus will be around for some time.... and during that time they will also get older...

The more the time moves forward, the more the wonders of COVID-19 appear. However, olden people don't make much of the population of the Earth. I am thinking of pre-adolescents whose immune systems are incomplete, and they make much of the population.

 

[Urwumpe]

The more the time moves forward, the more the wonders of COVID-19 appear. However, olden people don't make much of the population of the Earth. I am thinking of pre-adolescents whose immune systems are incomplete, and they make much of the population.

And which have a higher threat by the new strains.

 

[Face]

However, olden people don't make much of the population of the Earth. I am thinking of pre-adolescents whose immune systems are incomplete, and they make much of the population.

Do you mean young people? Is there scientific news that the virus or one of its mutations changed mortality distribution?

 

[Sbb1413]

Do you mean young people? Is there scientific news that the virus or one of its mutations changed mortality distribution?

Yeah, I meant children who are yet to reach the stage of adolescence. Also, there is a doctrine that oldens and youths are worst affected in a viral disease.

 

[Face]

Yeah, I meant children who are yet to reach the stage of adolescence. Also, there is a doctrine that oldens and youths are worst affected in a viral disease.

Well, doctrine... but is there a difference now to the scientific consensus in the past year, that the mortality age distribution is heavily skewed into higher age direction with COVID-19? AFAIK, young people have an extremely low chance of dying from it, whereas old people have a much higher. Which is in contrast to e.g. regular influenza or the spanish flu.
Or do you mean chance of infection per se?

 

[Urwumpe]

Do you mean young people? Is there scientific news that the virus or one of its mutations changed mortality distribution?

Mortality not yet, but from Israel we know so far, that the reproduction rate among children skyrocket with the prevalence of the new strain.

Also: That you are not dead does not mean, that you are not disabled for at least multiple months. The LongCOVID observations just have started.

 

[Urwumpe]

AFAIK, young people have an extremely low chance of dying from it, whereas old people have a much higher.

You also have a much lower chance of dying, if you get proper best practice care in a hospital, O2 without your relatives organizing bottles for you, etc.

Short: Mortality depends on the real standards and capacities of your health care system.

It is no surprise, if mostly older people die, since even the best ICU care means a terrible stress for the body and is not good for your health (unless you are infected by something worse). So, the more important question is: How many of a group of similar age end in hospital and ICU? That more old people die in ICU than young people is not helpful, since more old people also die of car accidents compared to younger people with the same injuries.

Should there ever be a signficant increase in mortality for children, it would be a major SNAFU in that light, because the nature of the illness changed.

 

[Face]

Mortality not yet, but from Israel we know so far, that the reproduction rate among children skyrocket with the prevalence of the new strain.

Also: That you are not dead does not mean, that you are not disabled for at least multiple months. The LongCOVID observations just have started.

We also know from Israel so far, that the vaccination works as predicted, because they have close to zero deaths among those who've got the shot. However, this is far from being scientific news.
That you are not dead also doesn't mean that you are disabled for months instead, it doesn't even mean that you get ill at all. As you wrote, the observations only started, so following a doctrine now in saying the youths are worst effected by it is a bit over the top.

What certainly happened to the youths is that they developed psychological issues from the measures, not from the disease. And that they are looking into a dark future with killed economy and a society slowly changing to totalitarianism.

 

[Urwumpe]

What certainly happened to the youths is that they developed psychological issues from the measures, not from the disease. And that they are looking into a dark future with killed economy and a society slowly changing to totalitarianism.

RANT WARNING

What I first of all observe is, that people, who should be pretty smart, turned into full-scale idiots. Like people pretending (in a very idiotic way*) that they are caring for the well-being of children, after not giving a damn about this for the past 50 years. Or complain about totalitarianism, while ten thousand people died because astoundishly smart people failed to follow very simple rules by their own reason and care for each other. Like "Hey, your grandfather can die with 80, so that I can buy christmas presents downtown because of my damn freedom of being an idiot is important." Or "Nobody needs to be able to run a marathon, I don't care that you lost your hobby because of an infection. I need to sit drunk in the snow and celebrate apres ski, without ever even thinking about skiing." Is egoism the pinnacle of human evolution? Is that what liberalism is about? Being free to harm others?

It used to be funny, when self-proclaimed ecologists burned lots of wood in a primitive oven for maximum pollution, because burning wood is more green than burning oil. Or think that eating a bit of sugar that got in touch with randomly contaminated water is better than going to a doctor or at least follow the recommendations, that medicine has developed in the past 100 years. But now, these kind of small idiocies kill people. Not just by COVID-19. Everytime we lie, we incur a debt on the truth. Sooner or later, this debt is repaid. Often in form of human lives.

Yeah, I also see a dark future. There are not many adults around that can claim to be any kind of role model for the younger generations when it comes to responsible, adult behaviour - who are we to complain about teenagers, after seeing what 50 year olds do? There are not many new modern industries surviving, because we shove all our money desperatly into companies that had been technically bankrupt for the past 15 years without any signs that more money ever solved a problem there. We complain about transparent democratic processes and science being totalitarianism and celebrate dictators and tyrants, who kill people without letting the media mentioning it (Sputnik V is great. Nobody died of it. Just a high number of patients disappeared afterwards from the records.).

I also fear an end of science. Because we don't need science for telling us things, that we already know or for giving us the answer that we want to hear. The middle ages had been bright compared to what comes in the future, if we don't start getting back to reason.


* School should be open, where the children should not talk with each other or play with each other, but all freetime options for children to interact with other children get banned so that the schools can stay open. And now, are you going to lecture me about what harms the mental health of children more? A dysfunctional school system, that is documented of harming the mental heath of children for at least 70 years is worth dying for, so our children will be as stupid and mentally ill as we have become?

 

[Face]

What I first of all observe is, that people, who should be pretty smart, turned into full-scale idiots.

Yeah. Hug a virus, save the economy.

Yeah, speaks for itself.