Even odds on the launch. I remember a quote from a newscaster (not Cronkite) years ago during a launch attempt that "NASA is doing what they do best, hold". The '9 is still a new rocket (to me anyway) so better to get it right, than, well... not get it right.
As far as a 1st stage recovery; they've proven that they can hit the target (pun intended). So if it can be done, I'm sure they'll get it. With the added hydraulics maybe-maybe not. Nothing ventured-nothing gained. I'm keeping in mind that they are attempting to do what most others have said can't be done. I certainly wish them all the best of luck.
I just wonder how steady the whole thing will be if they do recover. How long would it take the support crew to approach the drone ship, and secure the stage; and the whole shebang be transported back to J-ville.