I am wondering a bit about how an "industrialised earth orbit" is sometimes portrayed, and I thought it would be cool to have a discussion about it here.
What I don't want to discuss is how we get there. There's plenty of models around, all with their own issues, but for this I really want to get a better idea of what it might look like.
For that purpose, I'm going to outline some assumptions without going into any nitty-gritty details about how they came to be:
Also, when thinking "industry", don't think "metal and machines", just think "manufacturing stuff, any kind of stuff".
Things I am interested in:
What I don't want to discuss is how we get there. There's plenty of models around, all with their own issues, but for this I really want to get a better idea of what it might look like.
For that purpose, I'm going to outline some assumptions without going into any nitty-gritty details about how they came to be:
- costs of Launch to LEO is much cheaper, but still significant, let's say 0.5 million dollars per ton (not quite a factor of 10 more expensive than current-day international airfreight)
- There is a sizable population (100'000+) living on the moon.
- There is a growing outpost on Mars with some light traffic (mostly supply runs scheduled on launch windows).
- Mining NEOs is a thing, and mining in the belt is starting to pick up.
- There are regular unmanned scientific missions to the outer planets and preparations for establishing a permanent base on ganymede
- Earth is, obviously, still the major industrial and economic centre.
- Some reliable solution for long-term zero-g effects has been found, be that medical or engineered (e.g. rotating habitats).
Also, when thinking "industry", don't think "metal and machines", just think "manufacturing stuff, any kind of stuff".
Things I am interested in:
- Most prominently, the shape of the whole thing. Earth has radiation belts, and they're not healthy places to be in for longer times. In fact, the GEO-band lies inside a radiation belt. So do you think that bands with higher radiation would just simply be avoided and filled with satelites, or do you consider it likely that a simple and good enough solution would be found to make this only a minor setback?
- What industries would make sense to have in earth or lunar orbit that could produce things from lunar materials for off-earth use (cutting the launch costs)
- What industries would make sense for producing goods for earth?
- Tourism from earth would be present but limited from earth, but what potential is there for tourism from the moon or from other habitats in orbit themselves?
- Is it even remotely imaginable that there would be something akin to cities, where people live in orbit permanently and found families, or do you think the orbital population would always be cycling?
- What science would be done in orbit?
- Where would most of the food consumed in orbit come from? Earth, Lunar farms, or specialised habitats in orbit?
- Who would organise and regulate the entire thing? Do you consider it likely that a central authority would start to charge "rent" for orbital spots as things start to get crowded? Who makes traffic regulations and keeps the place cleaned up? Who enforces law?
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