Science What will computers be like?

[Wishbone]

If we don't find ways to make designers THINK before writing down algorithms and TESTING before, during, and after coding, we're in for a large heap o'trouble.

Re: Bond movies - they did not strike me as paragons of technical competence, compared to the real state of the art of the period.

 

[T.Neo]

If we don't find ways to make designers THINK before writing down algorithms and TESTING before, during, and after coding, we're in for a large heap o'trouble.

Design is actually an area where a generalist AI would be immensely useful- it would be an extension of today's concept of CAD software or simulation tools.

Of course, real, useful applications such as these are tossed aside by many people, in favour of the Superintelligent AI God Cult. :dry:

Re: Bond movies - they did not strike me as paragons of technical competence, compared to the real state of the art of the period.

Probably not, but I certainly enjoed the self destruct car security system. :lol:

Would be perfect in South Africa. :shifty:

 

[Jarvitä]

I remember a warm and fuzzy little piece of fiction, that had a lot of posthumans in it- miniscule worm-people, blind cavedwellers, and sapient quadrupeds with no way of usefully interacting with their environment, the results of radical genetic engineering following an alien invasion. The label of 'posthuman' was rightly applied, but very different from the ubermensch idealism that a lot of people seem to have.

You seem to be confusing posthumanism with transhumanism. The ideals you ascribe to all posthumanists are actually just a branch of transhuman extropianism and extropism.

See this video for reference:

 

[T.Neo]

You seem to be confusing posthumanism with transhumanism. The ideals you ascribe to all posthumanists are actually just a branch of transhuman extropianism and extropism.

I am not confusing anything. From

 

[Polaris]

We can only hope that SHODAN does not become a reality.

 

[Pyromaniac605]

We can only hope that SHODAN does not become a reality.

Look at you, hacker. A pathetic creature of meat and bone, panting and sweating as you run through my corridors. How can you challenge a perfect, immortal machine?

 

[jedidia]

We have made computers the size of a room multiple times in the past few years, but to be honest, they're never really that spectacular.

Actually I think room-sized computers are the future. Big mean super-machines, in centralized locations. Then all we need is bandwith, and we'll have their power available on any cellphone by direct streaming. The computing power to reinterpret the data stream into audio, video and other signals would be pretty low, so you'd be able to run anything from anywhere, because your "receiver" wouldn't be doing any work apart from interpreting the stream.

It's called the cloud, btw, and Apple already starts testing it. All we really need to make it work even for high-performance aplications is more bandwith, which should not be too much of a problem, since bandwith is pretty much increasing month by month.

I find the thought of not having my own processor and having all my apps stored on an anonymous server totally disturbing, btw, but I'm pretty sure that this concept will become standard in 10 to 20 years. No more personal computer, only personal access device to shared supercomputers, which makes a personal computer rather superfluous, I'm afraid. On the upside, stuff will get cheaper...

 

[Urwumpe]

Big mean super-machines, in centralized locations.

IBM already went almost bankrupt because of this concept in the past. (or why do you think IBM created the PC 30 years ago?) I really wish people would learn from history instead of trying to repeat it.

Is the Internet one big computer somewhere? No, it is many small(er) computers spread out and connected by multiple networks and open standards.

Even if you would reduce your dream to just one big computer per house and many small portable terminals (tablets?) - you will quickly find out that you can get much more computer system out of having smarter tablets, instead of just collecting money to update the single central big computer.

Just to say it: Cloud computing is a big hype, not more, propagated by the big software companies, who really finally can take the money out of your pocket per use of their software, instead of selling licenses. It is one great way to make money with you, instead of you making the money.

 

[Artlav]

Actually I think room-sized computers are the future. Big mean super-machines, in centralized locations. Then all we need is bandwith, and we'll have their power available on any cellphone by direct streaming. The computing power to reinterpret the data stream into audio, video and other signals would be pretty low, so you'd be able to run anything from anywhere, because your "receiver" wouldn't be doing any work apart from interpreting the stream.

It's called the cloud, btw, and Apple already starts testing it. All we really need to make it work even for high-performance aplications is more bandwith, which should not be too much of a problem, since bandwith is pretty much increasing month by month.

Are you aware that this happened before, and cloud concept lost?

Back in USSR in 60-70's, there were two directions in making computers - one group was making the BESM, a big universal types of machines for centralized computing, with the philosophy that anyone would go to or connect to the central computing resources and do their tasks there.

The other group was making the ES series of machines in range from almost-personal and up to large supercomputer ones, to be installed at the institutions and factories, decentralized.

The decentralized kind won, because nobody wanted to do their processing at a place where anybody else could have access to their data.

Now the history repeats itself worldwide, with similar arguments and better technology.
My bet is on the private property.

 

[jedidia]

I hope you guys are right. As I said, I don't like the Idea one bit. But so far it seemed like an unavoidable developement to me.

 

[Urwumpe]

I hope you guys are right. As I said, I don't like the Idea one bit. But so far it seemed like an unavoidable developement to me.

if you asked managers of big companies in the 1980s, how the future will be like, they would have said big servers and dumb terminals for all.

The private user was happy to buy a small computer for himself and bought the best he can afford usually.

When the private user became owner of a small company, he still rather looked for small computers instead of buying a big server, because the small computers had been easier to acquire, in some applications more capable (especially text processing and spreadsheet calculations became quickly better than the terminal versions) and also scaled better with the company. One PC wasn't enough for the work of your three office assistants? Buy a second one for cheap. or a third one, why not have one PC for every office assistant. Until you had 50 people in your management doing calculations and paperwork, even buying the cheapest mainframe computers around (the smallest System/370 for example) had been more expensive.

 

[Capt_hensley]

We (US Army) still use a distributed database simulation called WARSIM, strangely I always thought we would move to a simulation mainframe, and use dumb terminals.

We instead use a server farm, and PCs for terminals. The PCs still have some of the processing work, but for the most part they are still just terminals.

This will be the MO for the Army, and the cooperative players for the next 20 years.

Today I heard that HP will give up the PC market to move towards the mobile market. Dell will probably make the move later, they will want to capitolize on the reduced market for as long as they can.

Can't say where we'll be in 50 years, but centralized, terminal access may be all that remains of the PC, Looks like mobile will take over the second gen Yuppie market. Who knows how the Army will react.

 

[Keatah]

I'd like to know what an alien computer is like.. what type of elements does it use? Does it even have a memory as we know it? Perhaps it uses something other than electrons?

 

[T.Neo]

Does it even have a memory as we know it?

I think a computer without the ability to store information would be rather like a launch vehicle without propellant tanks...

 

[John_L]

It's pretty fruitless to try to look ahead. It's impossible to determine because as the technology progresses, new possibilities that were not previously considered come into play. Shopping in a 3D environment, by the way, exists now... not 50 years from now. Visit www.secondlife.com. There's mainly virtual goods there, but real world businesses, educational institutions, and more conduct business in "an immersive 3D environment".

 

[Capt_hensley]

I'd like to know what an alien computer is like.. what type of elements does it use? Does it even have a memory as we know it? Perhaps it uses something other than electrons?

I should imagine something organic, or 3D holographic. Probably "thought" processed commands and not so tactile or GUI. Vision may not even be used. A collective mind may push things over the edge, but what ever it uses it will be far simpler then anything we have.

Electrons are a basic construct of an atom, so you can't have anything without an electron or two. But wire on the other hand may not be wire, it may not be solid. Genetically altered slime may be the new preferred circuit medium.

 

[FADEC]

if you asked managers of big companies in the 1980s, how the future will be like, they would have said big servers and dumb terminals for all.

Back then managers even had to be convinced that home/desktop computers will sell better than dumb calculators. Managers even were afraid that Commodore offered a computer that had the same capabilities as Apple computers, but for half-price. Today one still can find a C64 literally in any US household (if you just rummage lockers and garages) of course beside modern laptops, desktop computers, ipads etc.

But there is actually no real innovation in the PC and laptop market anymore. There are nice case designs today, and maybe an increase of CPU/GPU speed and RAM while Windows has become the most boring OS. The ipad and iphone is something I would call innovations these days. And I think that's where the future is heading to: small mobile devices that can do everything. I must say that Apple products have become quite attractive anyway.

 

[T.Neo]

I should imagine something organic, or 3D holographic. Probably "thought" processed commands and not so tactile or GUI. Vision may not even be used. A collective mind may push things over the edge, but what ever it uses it will be far simpler then anything we have.

This assumes far too many sci-fi cliches about aliens, I think.

It'd be interesting to see alien user interfaces though... how they would be designed, around their physiology.

Genetically altered slime may be the new preferred circuit medium.

Wasn't a cultured mass of rat brain cells taught to fly an F-22 simulator once?

 

[SandroSalgueiro]

The way I see it, the only critical point ahead in the computers evolution graph would be caused by the release of the Cloud. If that confirms to be a failure, I don't see anything else stopping our current devices from becoming more advanced and independent machines.

 

[Capt_hensley]

This assumes far too many sci-fi cliches about aliens, I think.

It'd be interesting to see alien user interfaces though... how they would be designed, around their physiology.

Wasn't a cultured mass of rat brain cells taught to fly an F-22 simulator once?

I suppose that's one view, but I know we have experimented with wet wiring a monkey brain, so why not.

I didn't want to get too sci-fi, but you have to admit, voice systems, and disabled access have become far better than in the 80's. Back when Stephen Hawking had the most advanced system that spoke for him, they ran over $5000 USD, now text to voice systems are free on the web.

I'd like to see alien stuff, but who knows what the US Air Force is developing, back when Fire Fox was made, a thought capturing helmet was in deep research. It didn't go far, but hey they threw some serious bucks at it for a couple of years.

I thought it was "F-16" or MS Flight sim with some jet??? :rofl:

On a different note, how about 3D holographic touch displays? Popular Science did an article that blew my mind. I'm ready for it.

The biggest swing in the paradigm of computing for me was when I moved into my I7 before they were fashionable, I even bought a SSD, and extra ram. Now they are common place. I'd like to see a swing like that again.

PS where's the Cray desktop everyone was promised, that could be a practical leap...