K_Jameson
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The size and weight of the projectile does not really equate to armor penetration, velocity and AP cap density is more important (See: Newton)
We must say another thing: different velocity means different trajectory.
A flat trajectory means that the shell has more chances to pierce the belt, but the belt is a relatively small target; in turn the shell has more probabilities to bounce on the armored deck.
A more rounded trajectory is quite the opposite, with more chances to penetrate the deck, and hence, under some circumstances, the 406/45 of NoCal and SoDak is better than the celebrated 406/50 of Iowa.