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orbitingpluto

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They could have used that HL-10.

Something based on X-24 could've been a possibility too, not only having been flight tested like the HL-10 from the Mach 1.4 to landing, but it also could draw on the testing done by the similarly-shaped X-23 from reentry to Mach 2.
 

MaverickSawyer

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Something based on X-24 could've been a possibility too, not only having been flight tested like the HL-10 from the Mach 1.4 to landing, but it also could draw on the testing done by the similarly-shaped X-23 from reentry to Mach 2.

Since we're on the "what if" game...

X-20.

*mic drop*
 

Linguofreak

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Face it: The Shuttle program management had been unsafe. If you use the same management on a capsule, it will be unsafe too.

Of course the Shuttle program management was unsafe: STS was such an accident waiting to happen that it never would have flown under safe management. But given equal management, the capsule will still be safer, not because capsules are heroically safe, but because STS was such a monumentally stupid and reckless idea.

Bad management might man-rate a seriously flawed capsule, or try something stupid with a good design, but good management would never man-rate an STS-type system built with current or plausible near-future technology.

Just repeat the "capsules are inherently safe" nonsense a few times more, and I bet capsules will even be less safe than the Shuttle ever was, because managers will also believe in that religious statement and trust the capsule way past its real capabilities.

It's not so much "capsules are inherently safe" as "STS-type systems are inherently dangerous".

(Especially if you look at what the STS meant for the US launch rates back then: A Saturn V had a 5 month launch campaign as minimum, the Shuttle really managed less than 30 days)

But we're not talking Saturn V, we're talking Saturn IB, and we're talking refinements for routine LEO operations rather than just continuing with unmodified moonshot hardware.
 

Urwumpe

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Of course the Shuttle program management was unsafe: STS was such an accident waiting to happen that it never would have flown under safe management. But given equal management, the capsule will still be safer, not because capsules are heroically safe, but because STS was such a monumentally stupid and reckless idea.

Monumentally stupid and reckless like leaving the safe ground behind at all? :p

Also, just to crash some fairy tale again: Every real system with less than 100% reliability is waiting for an accident. That's plain math. Even a perfectly safe system with a perfect management can have deadly accidents - but instead of one accident every 60 flights, we might be talking about one every 120 flights. And call that great in reality.

Bad management might man-rate a seriously flawed capsule, or try something stupid with a good design, but good management would never man-rate an STS-type system built with current or plausible near-future technology.

Wrong. We had it this discussion often before and again, you are just talking about things that you perceive as "That can't work", without even knowing it. Obviously the STS did work. And it was not even extremely unsafe, if you look at the pure number of LOCV events. Of course, you have a different statistic if you compare the number of deaths caused by a 777 and a C172 - even if both would be crashing equally seldom.

Just look at Apollo: Even if you ignore Apollo 1 as ground testing accident, would the Apollo 13 event happened on Apollo 8, the crew would have been dead as well, the LM as available lifeboat and a lot of excellent management saved the day. Was Apollo inherently safe? Of course not. It had been a very lucky program with luckily a small number of flights, that is insanely glorified by todays NASA managers and spaceflight fanboys without brain. The biographies of Gene Krantz or John Young tell you a much different story there from their own perspective. Same with Soyuz. Orion will maybe be safer because of the experience.


It's not so much "capsules are inherently safe" as "STS-type systems are inherently dangerous".

Is it? Do you even know what "inherently dangerous" means, aside of just saying it, because it sounds impressive?


But we're not talking Saturn V, we're talking Saturn IB, and we're talking refinements for routine LEO operations rather than just continuing with unmodified moonshot hardware.


Sorry, wrong. First of all, the Saturn IB was a much different launcher, in performance as well as in necessary complexity. And still, the Saturn IB had the same long check-out times as the Saturn V, because it was based on the same process technology. Only because you are only flying in LEO with a Shuttle, that does not mean that Apollo with a Saturn IB could have done the same job.

And if we would go back to the beginning of my post: The Shuttle had statistically one deadly accident every 60 flights. Apollo CSM had just 19 flights and already 2 failures, one of it deadly. There had been just 6 LEO missions with the Apollo CSM (because it was way more expensive to operate than the Space Shuttle. Yes, today you would not believe it), two of it had been near deadly accidents (Skylab 3 almost needed a rescue mission and ASTP had only not killed the crew by plain luck again). Apollo was rated with a 1 deadly accident in 18 flights statistic in a NASA report after STS-107, the Shuttle with a 1 in 55 - the CEV (and thus the new Orion capsule) was expected to reach a 1 in 120 statistic on a SRB stick in the same report.
 
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Linguofreak

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Obviously the STS did work. And it was not even extremely unsafe, if you look at the pure number of LOCV events.

It suffered the only LOCV event in history that was the result of a launch vehicle failure, because, unlike any other launch vehicle that has ever flown manned, it had no provision, and, because of its design, could have no provision, for crew escape during the relevant phase of flight.

It also suffered the only LOCV event in history that was the result of debris from the launch vehicle impinging on the spacecraft, once again because of a launch stack arrangement unique among manned vehicles (Buran doesn't count as it was canceled before a manned launch was attempted), and something that could not have been corrected without turning it into another vehicle entirely.

That's what I mean by "inherently" dangerous, BTW. The design flaws that caused the two LOCV events were not correctable by any means other than building a different spacecraft, whereas the failures that caused the Apollo and Soviet LOCV events could be corrected with incremental changes to the spacecraft.
 

Urwumpe

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It suffered the only LOCV event in history that was the result of a launch vehicle failure, because, unlike any other launch vehicle that has ever flown manned, it had no provision, and, because of its design, could have no provision, for crew escape during the relevant phase of flight.

It also suffered the only LOCV event in history that was the result of debris from the launch vehicle impinging on the spacecraft, once again because of a launch stack arrangement unique among manned vehicles (Buran doesn't count as it was canceled before a manned launch was attempted), and something that could not have been corrected without turning it into another vehicle entirely.

That's what I mean by "inherently" dangerous, BTW. The design flaws that caused the two LOCV events were not correctable by any means other than building a different spacecraft, whereas the failures that caused the Apollo and Soviet LOCV events could be corrected with incremental changes to the spacecraft.

And? Would it be safer if it would just suffer from the same failure modes that we already know? And did you even bother reading about the "abort envelope" of a capsule before ranting about the Shuttle? A LAS effectively means, that you are now sandwiched between explosives, which will kill you more effective than the rocket behind, if you trigger an abort in 70-80% of the first stage flight, because of aerodynamic and structural constraints. Yes, a LAS gives you more abort options than no LAS. For a capsule, it is also the only way to abort because it can't fly away from the rocket by other means. The Shuttle can pull a Nz maneuver from SRB separation on, if you need a contingency abort. If you are not scared of damaging the heatshield more, you can even do a risky abort from 92 seconds in flight on (which was really an option if the orbiter will crash into the ocean anyway). The more you try to land the Shuttle intact, the less abort options you get and the smaller the abort windows get. But the window for ensuring crew survival is not much smaller than it was for a Saturn V launch. The pad abort capability was the only thing that was really missing, but most astronauts agree that in case of a Saturn V explosion, it would have been barely adequate. The Shuttle on the other hand was much safer in that category because it can't explode like the Saturn V. It can only catch fire because of the low density of the hydrogen (Think of the Hindenburg there).

Yes, the Shuttle has a larger heat shield which is more exposed to debris from the ET and the SRB nose cones. By design. It needs this heat shield for its mission, which includes being able to travel 1500 km cross-range, since it was suppose to land on one of two primary runways for faster and cheaper recovery (which it achieved. Even a transfer flight with a 747 is cheaper than renting a full aircraft carrier battle group for multiple weeks). But the real big issue is, that the known shedding of debris by the ET was simply accepted and assumed that it will never hit one of the RCC panels (debris strikes on the black tiles are actually no big problem, it takes massive damage their to compromise the heat shield). The heat shield was never the problem, actually 99% of it was way more robust than the heat shields of previous spacecraft (Apollo 13 for example would have failed fatal, if the heat shield was really cracked by damage at the outer edges - luckily the damage on it was maximal superficial).

The debris by the ET was the problem, since the ET dropped way more debris than previous launchers, and it did so because management wanted to keep costs on the only fully expendable part of the shuttle as low as possible. It was a negligence by management for years, that neither the heat shield was improved to be more robust at the fragile RCC, nor the ET improved before STS-107 (which had massive effects on the debris events then), nor that a EVA repair option was possible. Even simply creating a dual layer RCC panel would have been an option (which would still have been lighter than the OBSS in its sum) when the first debris events had been noticed - instead NASA management decided to resort to "don't ask, don't tell" - and after STS-107, pressure to finish the ISS was too high and the end of the Shuttle decided, so a long-term solution to fix this problem ultimately was no option any more.

The big issue of STS-51-L was not the lack of abort options. No abort option would have helped there. Similar accidents cause LOCV even in capsule+LAS simulations because you can't trigger the abort as fast as the rocket disintegrates around you. Don't fall prone to the fallacy "If the capsule sits on top of the launcher, it is safe". On top of the launcher is not the safest place, though it often buys you extra time that you can badly need. When rocket tanks disintegrate at the bottom dome, you can't fire the LAS as fast as the capsule is pushed into the rocket debris by drag while the disintegrating tank accelerates by Newtons third forward. Yes, a LAS is there better than just letting the accident go on. But a side mounted spaceplane has actually more chances to evade such an accident, if you get the abort signal at the same time and with enough time to react at all. Not really given on any SRB (they fail rarely, but when they fail, then it is fast and violent).

STS-51-L was doomed already on launch. Even a capsule would have failed to protect the crew on such a situation, any crew survival of a capsule in such an accident would have been plain luck. A proper emergency detection system in the Shuttle could have triggered an abort 3 seconds before, when the chamber pressures in both SRBs diverged massively. The problem is just: Neither a LAS, nor the Shuttle orbiter had been in their window to allow an abort. The LAS would have had too high dynamic pressure to fire, same for separating the orbiter in emergency - the LAS would have been available again about 85 seconds after launch, the shuttle orbiter could have separated earliest after 92 seconds.

And sorry, but "incremental changes" is something that does not even work out easy in software and is often impossible in real hardware. In the fairy tale world, engineers will sit together and improve the hardware with magic. In the real world, engineers will sit together and often simply write into the manual "Don't try this again.".

As you can again see: Just being the first to fail in a specific mode, does not mean that others would not have failed so. Every design decision has its price in different chances of failures to happen and the danger of these failures.
 

Urwumpe

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Hitchbot was bruised and battered in the streets of Philadelphia...
 

Andy44

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LOL I had to look that up, never heard of Hitchbot before.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/hitchbot-destroyed-in-philadelphia-ending-u-s-tour-1.3177098

A robot that depends on people being nice may work fine in Canada, but in the US, especially Philly of all places? LOL good luck with that! :lol:

He probably insulted the Eagles, or failed to properly insult the Dallas Cowboys...

iu
 

Urwumpe

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A robot that depends on people being nice may work fine in Canada, but in the US, especially Philly of all places? LOL good luck with that! :lol:

It even worked in Germany this spring. He even survived the Cologne Carnival - which says a lot about the forces needed to destroy this robot.
 

Thunder Chicken

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A robot that depends on people being nice may work fine in Canada, but in the US, especially Philly of all places? LOL good luck with that! :lol:

He probably insulted the Eagles, or failed to properly insult the Dallas Cowboys...

hitchBOT got a heaping helping of Brotherly Love :lol:.
 

jedidia

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Yo dawg, I heard you like surveilance...

So my boss tasked me with writing a program keeping an eye on our surveilance cameras. I have never thought about PTerry so much while at work :lol:
 

n122vu

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Regarding the TSA discussion a few pages back...

picture.php
 

fsci123

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The hitchbot got killed in a generally shady area south of the club district.
 

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Scary landing in Nuuk:

There's a link to the final report of the incident on YouTube.

A momentary failure of the right hand power lever micro switch causing a momentary activation of the right hand propeller beta backup protection in combination with a divergence between reported and effective braking action coefficients on runway 23 had a negative effect on the flight crew’s ability to maintain directional control, which resulted in the aircraft running off the side of the runway.
 

n122vu

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If that had happened in the US, the final NTSB report might have read something like: Probable Cause: The flight crew's failure to maintain directional control following equipment failures during the rollout phase of the landing.
 
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