post 9/11 world

jedidia

shoemaker without legs
Addon Developer
Joined
Mar 19, 2008
Messages
11,318
Reaction score
2,786
Points
203
Location
between the planets
I found this to go into an interesting direction, but I didn't want to hijack the moon-thread for good, so I opened up a new one. here was the last post by Urwumpe:

I don't subscribe the civil war theory. Before Iraq, the major pattern was provoking the western world, especially the USA, into military action. All civil war provoking actions took place when Shias and Sunnis started killing each other in Iraq. While all islamists aim for a caliphate, as ultimate ratio, attacking the decadent monarchies of the Arabian peninsula could have been more effective for causing a civil war.
It might look like it, but the statement of Bin Ladin was just too clear... for someone bothering with Wahabi theology at least (which I do only superficial, but I have a lot of friends who are pretty specialiced in this area).

It might be that the militaric action were counted upon to definitaly inflame the whole thing (after all, the bombings you mentioned wouldn't have occured if the U.S. wouldn't have taken Afghanistan and Iraq). It is also possible that they wanted the U.S. as an outside threat with which muslim nations could associate and eventually unite. Hard to tell.

While all islamists aim for a caliphate, as ultimate ratio, attacking the decadent monarchies of the Arabian peninsula could have been more effective for causing a civil war.
If you're thinking of the Saud family in particular, forgett it. They are the ones financing the whole thing, and they'd be top candidates for the caliphate. After all, the current Isalmistic Ideology is derived from Abdel Wahhabs teachings, who in the middle of the 19th century allied with the Saud tribe, granting them to become caliphs when they spread his "true islam". They were delayed a bit, eventually succeeded, and with the oil findings got everything they could ever need to promote wahabism all over the (islamic) world. They invested BILLIONS in missionary activities through the last years.

If you're thinking of others, I don't see how it could have helped the cause. The kind of civil war the islamists have in mind is not waged like we'd wage it. We would establish a different state and them remove those who don't fit, while they rather start killing those who don't fit, which will in the end result in the desired state (at least they seem to think like that).

Apart from that, pressure from Wahabism on gouvernements in islamic nations is increasing steadily. Look at egypt for a very nice example how things can turn when someone manages to convince a people that their leaders are not following the ways of god. The more they manage to convince the average muslim that their teaching is the only real one, the more gouvernements will have to give in.

And why is the activity in Iran pretty limited, though it is the worst stepping stone for a caliphate?
First, Iran is Shiite (very homogen), and therewith only involved in the conflict as a potential victim. Shiia theology is in some points quite different fron Suni theology, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the caliphate. A caliph, after Shia teching, can only be a direct descendant of Ali, son-in-law of Muhammed. Therewith, the Saud family is disqualified. On the other hand, Shia Islam is not recogniced as Islam by the Islamists. They are infidels, and would be exterminated if the Islamists ever reached their goals (which they won't. Their strategy simply cannot succeed...).

With all the current trouble with Ahmadinedshad we too lightly forgett that Iran is still a Theocracy, and the true power lies not with the prime minister, but with the Ayathollas. I can't quite figure out what Ahmadinedschad is currently doing. For one, he has to find a way out of the oncomming economical crisies, for which they'd need a lot they can't get due t embargoes, on the other hand he might have to demonstrate that he is on the same political side as are the Suni nations (otherwise it might happen that they become a target for terrorist activity too), and on a third hand he might just like the attention. Difficult to say with a man like him. We can be pretty sure about one thing however: Iran does not support the Isalmists. Their theocracy might look similiar, but they're still Shiites, a fact that can't be taken lightly in an islamic context.
 
It might look like it, but the statement of Bin Ladin was just too clear... for someone bothering with Wahabi theology at least (which I do only superficial, but I have a lot of friends who are pretty specialiced in this area).

My personal analysis is, that you can't trust Bin Ladens statements to expose his plans. He follows his own agenda.

It might be that the militaric action were counted upon to definitaly inflame the whole thing (after all, the bombings you mentioned wouldn't have occured if the U.S. wouldn't have taken Afghanistan and Iraq). It is also possible that they wanted the U.S. as an outside threat with which muslim nations could associate and eventually unite. Hard to tell.

Possible, and the USA would be a good enemy to unite against for the Arabian world. Almost as good as Israel.

If you're thinking of the Saud family in particular, forgett it. They are the ones financing the whole thing, and they'd be top candidates for the caliphate. After all, the current Isalmistic Ideology is derived from Abdel Wahhabs teachings, who in the middle of the 19th century allied with the Saud tribe, granting them to become caliphs when they spread his "true islam". They were delayed a bit, eventually succeeded, and with the oil findings got everything they could ever need to promote wahabism all over the (islamic) world. They invested BILLIONS in missionary activities through the last years.

Exactly. And they are called one the best allies of the USA. As long as they sit on oil.

If you're thinking of others, I don't see how it could have helped the cause. The kind of civil war the islamists have in mind is not waged like we'd wage it. We would establish a different state and them remove those who don't fit, while they rather start killing those who don't fit, which will in the end result in the desired state (at least they seem to think like that).

They follow standard guerilla doctrines. A war of attrition. Not only against the official enemies, but also against people who are not choosing sides.

First, Iran is Shiite (very homogen), and therewith only involved in the conflict as a potential victim. Shiia theology is in some points quite different fron Suni theology, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the caliphate. A caliph, after Shia teching, can only be a direct descendant of Ali, son-in-law of Muhammed. Therewith, the Saud family is disqualified. On the other hand, Shia Islam is not recogniced as Islam by the Islamists. They are infidels, and would be exterminated if the Islamists ever reached their goals (which they won't. Their strategy simply cannot succeed...).

Even more important, in Shia teaching is a strict research of the accuracy of the Hadith. They even call some witnesses of these outright liers, which the Sunni islam regards equally holy. Most stuff, the terrorists base their religious views on, is herethy in Iran - and shia parts of Iraq.

The problem in Iran is actually only the division of state and religion,which is to be seen critical. But that development was also pushed by the USA actions. In a less reactionary athmosphere as the late 1970s, Iran might have settled for the supreme leader having representative and ethic functions inside the government, instead of also having control over legislative and justice.

Iran is not a supporter of Terror, exactly and also only a minimal target of them. They are actually in the same boat as we are - the latest detection of drug smuggling from Afghanistan to Iran only shows that.

The terrorists recruit themselves from sunni islamic communities, based on the fact that their religious views are not wrong in sunni islam - and also not the whole truth.

With all the current trouble with Ahmadinedshad we too lightly forgett that Iran is still a Theocracy, and the true power lies not with the prime minister, but with the Ayathollas. I can't quite figure out what Ahmadinedschad is currently doing. For one, he has to find a way out of the oncomming economical crisies, for which they'd need a lot they can't get due t embargoes, on the other hand he might have to demonstrate that he is on the same political side as are the Suni nations (otherwise it might happen that they get a target for terrorist activity too), and on a third hand he might just like the attention. Difficult to say with a man like him. We can be pretty sure about one thing however: Iran does not support the Isalmists. Their theocracy might look similiar, but they're still Shiites, a fact that can't be taken lightly in an islamic context.

A small presentation about the balance of power inside Iran:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/BoroujerdiTheViewFromTehran.ppt

Well researched and detailled, tells you a lot what to expect from Ahmadineshad and afterwards.

Things could maybe become known better, if we really start talking. The Vatican is already further in diplomatics with Iran, as the USA or Germany.
 
My personal analysis is, that you can't trust Bin Ladens statements to expose his plans. He follows his own agenda.
Hmmm, interesting... I never saw it like that. Very well possible indeed.

They follow standard guerilla doctrines. A war of attrition. Not only against the official enemies, but also against people who are not choosing sides.
I'm not very educated in the art of war, but now that you mention it I recognise the pattern.

Even more important, in Shia teaching is a strict research of the accuracy of the Hadith. They even call some witnesses of these outright liers, which the Sunni islam regards equally holy.
Indeed, I forgott to mention that one. They have a rather different collection of traditions, which accounts for most of of the theological differences.

and also not the whole truth.
nah, the whole truth is never a good source for propaganda... :dry:

thanks a lot for the link, I'll look into it as soon as I find the time.

Edit: Just did... oh my, what a mess. And I thought the swiss system was complicated! It's no miracle the participation in the votes is so low...
 
Edit: Just did... oh my, what a mess. And I thought the swiss system was complicated! It's no miracle the participation in the votes is so low...

Hehe. Yeah, a complex system of twisted turns. ;)

Allahs will is sometimes not easy to understand. :cheers:

I think we are not in the post 9/11 world, but still in the post-coldwar world. Most stuff which keeps us busy now, are the products of the cold war, which got out of control once the balance of power got disturbed.
 
Natural disasters have killed more people than global terr orism in the last 50 years.
Cigar has killed more people than wars too.
I think politicians exaggerate their importance.
Probably they were frustrated in their dreams of becoming pop stars and that's why they became politicians.

I also believe that politicians have too much spare time that is being used in global games of "geopolitical power", for if they had not, they would be busy doing their job: reducing poverty, making their country to improve.
In 2000 years a country could not even exist.
 
I DO DOUBT rather strongly that this is correct!

Yeah, I also doubt that. Even cigars, cigarettes and alcohol have not yet claimed as many death as WW1, WW2, Sudan and the 30 years' war in Germany.
 
From wiki... in the time period of around 10 years 69,000,000 people died from WW1 and WW2 combined.
From some other site that i forget. Today around 4,000,000 people die from cigarette related illness' each year. Multiply that by 10 years and thats 40,000,00. Now from knowing that I can pretty sure tell you that cigarettes have killed more people than WW1 and WW2 combined. But all the wars put together, I dont know about that.
 
comparing the relatively young habit of excessive smoking and the absolutely ancient habit of banging each others heads, I'd say smoking stands no chance... ;)

Anyways, we really have a nack for sidetracking on these boards it seems.
 
Today around 4,000,000 people die from cigarette related illness' each year.

I would not trust this value, if I were you, not because it is statistically wrong, but because you don't know the model used for making the statistic. When a smoker dies because of a type of cancer, which might be caused by smoking, but can also be caused by more natural causes, he gets counted as "death by smoking". A heart infarct also gets counted as smoking death, when the person is smoker. Also, heavy air pollution causes almost exactly the same deaths as smoking can.

Direct deaths by smoking are very rare. So the statistics can't be accurate, regardless how good you do them - the numbers are either far too high or far too low.

Also, you can't extrapolate the 2006 number of smoking deaths for the past - the number of smokers grew quite fast in the world. 100 years ago, it would have been 208000 deaths at constant growth rate of 3%. Or 128.2 million death in 100 years.


And now, sum up all wars in the last 100 years... worldwide the 69 million of WW2, the 20 million of WW1, the 20 million of the second sino-japanese war, the 9 million of the Russian civil war, the 2 million military deaths in Korea (not counting the unknown number of civilian deaths), the approximate 4 million death in Vietnam, the 5 million of the second Congo war, 4 million in Afghanistan since 1979, 6 million in the chinese civil war, the 2 million of the Bangladesh liberation war, 1.5 million in the mexican revolution, one million in the iran-iraq war....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War#List_of_wars_by_death_toll
 
How many people have been murdered by their own governments in the last 100 years...

Many. Of course always for the greater good. Then also add people who died because the government did not do it's constitutional duties.
 
Back
Top