Astro SG Wise
Future Orion MPCV Pilot
After watching that video, I am not so convinced that is a "slow spin" like NASA says. :uhh:
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IronRain
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From Twitter:
@ISS101 said:
Cosmic Penguin
Geek Penguin in GTO
...and as expected from the data above (announced at a Roscosmos press briefing) Roscosmos chief has declared LOM and is looking at how to do a controlled de-orbit.
This incident sounds even more serious than before - it seems that either the Progress main engine blew up or it got hit by the Soyuz rocket's third stage during separation. Who knows what would happen had this happened on a crew mission? :blink:
Artlav
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It would be hilarious if it falls near Moscow right on the victory day (it was supposed to deliver the flag to the ISS).
The crew would have to suffer for a week in a cramped space, then do a bone-bruising ballistic re-entry in a random spot on the planet and fend off sharks for the couple of days it would take someone to get there.
Or maybe not. Cosmonauts are great problem solvers, and there might have been just a flick-of-a-switch worth of damage.
...Or SpaceX might have to do an improvised rescue mission.
Cosmic Penguin
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Here's a full English translation of the Roscosmos press briefing:
Urwumpe
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Or Putin would ride up there barechested on his horse and bring the capsule back....
No, seriously, its VERY good that it happened on an unmanned flight. With the unified propulsion system, such a damage could be devastating.
Astro SG Wise
Future Orion MPCV Pilot
Yeah, that sounds better. A rescue mission could come up, an unmanned Soyuz even, then the crew could transfer through an adapter, or EVA, to the other vehicle.
Notebook
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Andy44
owner: Oil Creek Astronautix
Yeah, it would look like the movie "Marooned". Which is something to be avoided...
N_Molson
Addon Developer
Who would pay the US-erm SpaceX for that ? Putin ? I'm certain he would prefer to rush a TMA launch even with the risk of the issue striking again. Soyuz have already flown unmanned in the past so a rendez-vous is certainly feasible.
However, the uncontrolled fast spin would be a problem for any rescue, making docking impossible and any EVA very hazardous (its already would be very hazardous to use a Sokol suit for an EV crew transfer, its designed to protect the crew in case of SA loss of pressure). Also making it through the narrow Soyuz BO EVA hatch would be another challenge for the poor cosmonauts. Admitting they can "jump" away from the spinning TMA, and that remote ground (or ISS) operators are good enough to position the rescue TMA right on their path. Or they could put one pilot in the rescue Soyuz and "pile" the 4th crewmember on the others, instead of usual extra ISS cargo packages. Provided an handrail has been installed. That's a huge lot of "if".
Also, I guess that the fast spin and the loss of orientation control would quickly become a problem, making the batteries charge insufficient. That already happened.
That's a bad situation, indeed.
But I'm pretty certain that Energia gives more care to the TMAs quality checks (translate : pays those workers better).
Challenge : using Thorton's addons and the scenario editor, put a Soyuz-TMA in orbit using the struck Progress parameters (including the spin rate), remove any fuel from it, then try to rendez-vous and dock another one before the orbit decays. Or use a Dragon if you prefer, that isn't going to make it easier. Good luck !
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Star Voyager
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Hurricane season is coming up too...
This is certainly a dilemma, but at least the crew can come home if the worst should happen.
orbitingpluto
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There's a article on Space News about how this Progress problem will affect the ISS, and there's a chart from a April 9th NASA presentation in that article that shows how long current supplies will last, without and also with the upcoming Dragon supply run. Here is that chart:
Artlav
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Well, they have more oxygen, and the station is occupied. It might be possible to try to move something from the station to them.
Also, the orbit is already quite low - all it might take is some well-timed venting to push the perigee deep enough into the atmosphere.
A Soyuz can land uncontrolled in a survivable fashion, afaik.
Indeed.
How hard is it to stop, i wonder.
Would climbing outside with a gas canister and venting counter-spinwards be enough?
Andy44
owner: Oil Creek Astronautix
About docking with a tumbling object: it's not impossible, you just have to think a little about how you want to do it. If you are launching a rescue mission from the ground you have some time to load equipment that might help you with it. I can think of a few crazy ideas for this; maybe I'll start a new thread. I have thought about it since they decided to put that docking adaptor on Hubble...
Were it manned I would more concerned with things like crew health, especially at that high spin rate. Over a few days that's gotta be bad for you. Then there are things like sun-pointing for power and thermal considerations, all of which are attitude-dependent.
Were it manned I would more concerned with things like crew health, especially at that high spin rate. Over a few days that's gotta be bad for you. Then there are things like sun-pointing for power and thermal considerations, all of which are attitude-dependent.
Thunder Chicken
Resident Lua Script Rabble-Rouser
Just getting used to zero g after orbital insertion is enough to make many astronauts queasy for a bit. Being thrown into a head-over-heels 60 deg/sec rotation right at insertion, I'd say the crew would certainly lose effectiveness quickly
Any chance that the stage did not completely separate somehow, and that a third stage burn put the whole stack spinning? It would be interesting to know if NORAD has identified the separated second stage. Perhaps that might explain the debris?
Uggh...what a mess. They will certainly need to examine whether this could affect manned Soyuz.
The second stage doesn't enter orbit. The second stage is the long central core stage which has more or less remained the same since its creation for the R7 ICBM. Same for the four boosters which serve as the first stage. The third stage was a new addition to create the Soyuz from the R7. The Soyuz has undergone modernizations and upgrades throughout the years but in design it's essentially the same launch vehicle that was used to launch Soyuz 1 on April 23 1967.
The State Commission that has been assigned to investigate this has been given until May 13th to present a preliminary report. There's a Soyuz 2-1A (same LV used in this launch) to be launched from Plesetsk on May 15 with Kobalt M recon spacecraft so they like to know what if anything the launch vehicle had to to do with the loss of the Progress.
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