Updates ISS Progress flights updates

[Artlav]

That is so cool-looking. I would love to see those antennae tracking in choppy seas.

Not exactly in choppy seas, but here is the old reel about the ship:

https://vimeo.com/119259002

A couple more links:
http://www.svengrahn.pp.se/radioind/Ships/Ships.htm - in english
Some pictures - http://korabley.net/news/2009-01-26-148
Full list of the video reels - http://niskgd.ru/video/index.htm

---------- Post added at 05:00 ---------- Previous post was at 04:47 ----------

It's quite a fascinating listening, actually - they even had to account for the ship flexing in order to keep the antennas pointed correctly, and the whole ship had a roll dampening system - decoupling the hull from the internals or something to that effect.

 

[Andy44]

Not exactly in choppy seas, but here is the old reel about the ship:

https://vimeo.com/119259002

A couple more links:
http://www.svengrahn.pp.se/radioind/Ships/Ships.htm - in english
Some pictures - http://korabley.net/news/2009-01-26-148
Full list of the video reels - http://niskgd.ru/video/index.htm

---------- Post added at 05:00 ---------- Previous post was at 04:47 ----------

It's quite a fascinating listening, actually - they even had to account for the ship flexing in order to keep the antennas pointed correctly, and the whole ship had a roll dampening system - decoupling the hull from the internals or something to that effect.

That's great stuff. Gotta love the old school electronics, too.

 

[Ravenous]

Reentry Roulette! Around and around she goes, place your bets! The winner gets showered with a plethora of singed dehydrated food packets and clean underwear.

Now that's funny, and infinitely preferable to the alternative! :rofl:

 

[Soheil_Esy]

Images of Progress M-27M tumbling

Brazilan astronomer's May Day images of the ill-fated Russian resupply spaceship

Out of control tumbling period of 2s clearly captured. Magnitude +3 with variations up to +2.5 through 10x50 binoculars

Pass prediction by Heavens-Above.com (Progress M-27M, COSPAR id. 2015-024-A)

Observer: Alex Amorim, latitude= -27.66039, longitude = -48.54396
Canon 1100D, 55mm f/5.6, exp. 4s
http://www.geocities.ws/costeira1/

 

[Frilock]

I think the trampoline might need some adjustment. *ducks*

 

[RisingFury]

Joking aside, how many failures is that for Russia recently?

 

[Urwumpe]

Joking aside, how many failures is that for Russia recently?

What do you consider "recently" and what kind of failure you count - if you mean since they switched to domestic Russian electronics around 2010, quite many.

 

[Soheil_Esy]

Progress 59 decay estimate

MASTER-SAAO: last images and coordinates of PROGRESS M27M

MASTER-SAAO auto-detection system detected Russian Space Ship Progress M27M on 2015-05-05 17:05:52.524 UT.

The position of MASTER-SAAO (K95 observatory) is the following:
LONG 20.810682
LAT -32.379369
Altitude 1760m

PROGRESS M27M astrometrical positions are the following

         Date,Time                       Ra           Dec             mag 
 
    2015-05-05.7124134722222222  84.8057334895609 37.4282150664347     9.4 
 
    2015-05-05.7124250462962963  84.9080081171341 37.3756685252052     7.5 
 
    2015-05-05.7133435763888889  95.8331960143204 31.3990586458172    12.3

Photometry shows fast rotation.

The part of the detection image (5-s exposition) is available at http://www.pereplet.ru/lipunov/images/MASTER_SAAO_ProgresM27M.jpg

The video is available at http://www.pereplet.ru/lipunov/images/PROGRESS_MASTER.gif

http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=7475

Progress 59 decay estimate

USSTRATCOM PREDICTION

Issued as of 7 May 2015

08 May 2015 03:32 UTC +/- 18 hours

http://www.n2yo.com/progress-cargo-reentry.php

AEROSPACE PREDICTION

Published May 7, 2015

Reentry Prediction
Predicted Reentry Time: 08 May 2015 05:40 UTC ± 5 hours
Prediction Epoch: 07 May 2015 09:17:29.936 UTC
Prediction Ground Track:

http://www.aerospace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-024A_127.png

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2-2/2015-024a/

TED MOLCZAN PREDICTION

Sun, 3 May 2015

Using the numerical integrator in GMAT 2014a, I found that Cd=2.2 and A/m=0.00253 m^2/kg are sufficient to account for
the decay over the span of USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch 15118.86793256 and 15123.89779004.

Allowing the propagation to continue until decay, results in impact (10 km altitude) on 2015 May 09 near 01:50 UTC. The
uncertainty is 25 h, based on the rule of thumb of 20 percent of the estimated time remaining to decay, measured from
the epoch of the latter of the two TLEs.

I converted the epoch 15118.86793256 TLE for propagation by GMAT using TLE Analyzer 2.12. I configured GMAT to use the
Dormand-Prince 78 numerical integrator, with the EGM-96 gravity model (degree 90, order 90), and the MSISE90 atmosphere
model. For the solar flux and geomagnetic index inputs required by MSISE, I used the daily mean values from Apr 29
through May 03 UTC.

http://satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0037.html

6 May 2015 21:59:29

Using the numerical integrator in GMAT 2014a, I found that Cd=2.2 and A/m=0.0032 m^2/kg are sufficient to account for
the decay over the span of USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch 15125.98285285 and 15126.89953602.

Allowing the propagation to continue until decay, results in impact (10 km altitude) on 2015 May 08 near 03:17 UTC. The
uncertainty is 6 h, based on the rule of thumb of 20 percent of the estimated time remaining to decay, measured from the
epoch of the latter of the two TLEs. Taking into account the USAF's space weather forecast for this period (much lower
geomagnetic activity than today, and a small increase in solar flux), moves the time of impact to 05:41 UTC on the same
day.

I converted the epoch 15124.87998146 TLE for propagation by GMAT using TLE Analyzer 2.12. I configured GMAT to use its
Dormand-Prince 78 numerical integrator, with the EGM-96 gravity model (degree 90, order 90), and the MSISE90 atmosphere
model.

http://satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0060.html

7 May 2015 08:44:22

Using the numerical integrator in GMAT 2014a, I found that Cd=2.2 and A/m=0.0037 m^2/kg are sufficient to account for
the decay over the span of USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch 15126.77762021 and 15127.44781874.

Allowing the propagation to continue until decay, results in impact (10 km altitude) on 2015 May 07 near 23:33 UTC. The
uncertainty is 3 h, based on the rule of thumb of 20 percent of the estimated time remaining to decay, measured from the
epoch of the latter of the two TLEs. For both the calibration of A/m and propagation to impact, I used a rough average
of observed and forecast space weather.

I converted the epoch 15126.77762021 TLE for propagation by GMAT using TLE Analyzer 2.12. I configured GMAT to use its
Dormand-Prince 78 numerical integrator, with the EGM-96 gravity model (degree 90, order 90), and the MSISE90 atmosphere
model.

http://satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0065.html

MARCO LANGBROEK PREDICTION

07 May 2015 10:35:56

With Alan Pickup's SatAna and SatEvo (with past and predicted solar flux and
some "secret" custom settings) and the same tle's as input, I currently get 5:12
+- 6 hrs UT, rather similar.

http://satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0062.html

ROKOSMOS PREDICTION

07/05/2015 14:13

8 May 2015 at approximately 00:45 to 6:36 Moscow Time

http://www.federalspace.ru/21470/

07/05/2015 17:26

8 May 2015 at approximately 01:13 to 04:51 Moscow Time

http://www.federalspace.ru/21471/

17:51 07.05.2015

reentry over the Indian Ocean, and its debris could fall north of Madagascar.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150507/1021833861.html

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

A reminder: that poor Progress will re-enter Earth's atmosphere within the next 12 hours or so: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-m27m.html#reentry

Looks like I will have to avoid praising Progress like I did below because now I can't prove that I didn't jinx that ship before launch. :shifty:

If you are making a quick delivery of a package, there are many logistics carriers to choose from: Fedex, UPS, DHL and many more, all of which have dozens of years of experiences.

But if your package is heading to the ISS, the number of ways of delivery is limited. And of the many methods available today, only one can be said to be proved so many times that it has become essentially a "scheduled flight service" that rarely got derailed.

Its name is Progress.

 

[Ripley]

Reentry confirmed:

http://www.spaceflight101.com/progress-m-27m-re-entry.html

The wayward Progress M-27M spacecraft that lost control shortly after its launch last week re-entered Earth’s atmosphere on Friday over the Pacific Ocean, several hundred Kilometers off the coast of Chile. The fiery demise of the Progress spacecraft after eleven days of flight likely scattered a number of surviving debris over South America, traveling as far as the Falkland Islands. No reports of any sightings of the re-entry of Progress or any debris were made in the aftermath of the re-entry of the cargo spacecraft that was planned to visit the Space Station.

 

[Artlav]

And that proves the old proverb:
Spaceflight is boring. If it ever gets exciting, it means you are about to die.

 

[boogabooga]

Reentry confirmed:

http://spaceflightnow.com/2015/05/06/out-of-control-progress-cargo-craft-to-fall-back-to-earth/

Isn't that more or less where UARS come down in 2011? :blink:

 

[Ripley]

Sorry, I pasted the wrong link.

This is the one I meant:
http://www.spaceflight101.com/progress-m-27m-re-entry.html

Previous post updated.

 

[Astro SG Wise]

I think I finally got the reason the spin was "slow". (P.S. I watched video of Gemini 8 Spin up).

 

[dman]

Reentry Roulette! Around and around she goes, place your bets! The winner gets showered with a plethora of singed dehydrated food packets and clean underwear.

Clean underwear sure beat being showered with dirty underwear.........

 

[boogabooga]

Will you pay a prize if I bet now....:rofl:

 

[Astro SG Wise]

Reentry Roulette! Around and around she goes, place your bets! The winner gets showered with a plethora of singed dehydrated food packets and clean underwear.

Clean underwear sure beat being showered with dirty underwear.........

Yeah. Now I understand why you loose everything to gambling. :dynamite:

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Yeah. Now I understand why you loose everything to gambling. :dynamite:

Yeah, the folks on the ISS lost their shirts! BADUM TSHH! :lol:

Try the veal folks! I'm here all night!

 

[orbitingpluto]

Looks like the investigation into whatever doomed the last Progress will be delaying the next crew rotation, keeping Cristoforetti, Virts, and Shkaplerov on the station til June(originally due to leave May 13th). The next three were due to launch May 26th, but now that looks like it will launch sometime in July.

 

[MattBaker]

Sometime in late July probably because they're sending a Progress up first in early July.