Updates ISS Progress flights updates

Cosmic Penguin

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Roscosmos have reported on their conclusions about the cause of the accident 2 days ago:

On June 1, 2015, Roskosmos published a press-release entitled "Cause of the Failure Determined." It went as following:

...After a thorough analysis of the failed launch and the completion of full-scale experiments, members of the commission came to the following conclusion:

The damage to the ship during its abnormal separation from the third stage of the Soyuz-2-1a launch vehicle resulted from a particular property of the joint use of the cargo spacecraft and the launch vehicle. This design property was related to frequency and dynamic characteristics of joint vehicles.

This design property was not fully accounted for during the development of the rocket and spacecraft complex.


Limitations on further flights of the Soyuz-2-1a rocket with other spacecraft had not been found.

Currently, Roskosmos is developing an action plan for conducting further flight tests of this space complex.

On June 9, Roskosmos will finalize the new flight manifest for human missions in 2015, including launches of cargo ships.

:facepalm:

(BTW the investigation wasn't straight-forward with another cause - explosion of the kerosene tank on the rocket's third stage - very nearly declared the cause. See the article in the link for details :uhh:)
 

boogabooga

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So, they saying that it was a KSP-style wobbly rocket?

:blink:

Anyway, this seems to be another "design flaw." Considering Proton as well, I am not understanding why so many design flaws are being uncovered in 45 year-old spacecraft designs.

Was the new Soyuz launcher actually quite different in vibration characteristics, but they assumed it would not be, didn't check, and this happened? Or was this a possibility on the old Soyuz launcher as well?
 

Cosmic Penguin

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So, they saying that it was a KSP-style wobbly rocket?

:blink:

Anyway, this seems to be another "design flaw." Considering Proton as well, I am not understanding why so many design flaws are being uncovered in 45 year-old spacecraft designs.

Was the new Soyuz launcher actually quite different in vibration characteristics, but they assumed it would not be, didn't check, and this happened? Or was this a possibility on the old Soyuz launcher as well?

Not "wobbling" as in sudden movement around the 3 axis, but more like internal harmonic oscillations and vibrations. The Soyuz-2 and Progress combination was only on its 2nd flight after the 1st last October, and the rocket has new upper stage tank designs and completely new control systems such that there could be different vibration characteristics. Same thing that now might need to be checked for F9 and Dragon.

Speaking of which.....the maintenance of the ISS supply line now lies heavily on the back of the RTF of Progress, coming up this Friday July 3rd at 04:55 UTC. Be afraid, be very afraid..... :uhh:
 

Fabri91

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Supplies are projected to last until October, with another supply flight, this time by the Japanese HTV, scheduled in August.

If the crew had to be brought down it would be especially a bummer due to the one-year mission being interrupted.
 

Frilock

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They wouldn't HAVE to, but they probably would.
 

DaveS

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What happens with ISS if this flight fails? Will they have to bring the crew back down?
Not yet. There's an HTV going up in August so that one will decide things. If the Progress is a no-show then supplies will last through September. Progress will add another month on to that, so the line in the sand then is end of October.
 

Donamy

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Any of you boys seen a shuttle lying around somewhere. :shifty:
 

Kyle

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We've had those fail too, but we could certainly do with an MPLM run right about now!
 

Thunder Chicken

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Maybe they should consider starting some potato plants on the ISS, just in case? :shifty:
 

Kyle

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Yea, I don't think I've ever been more nervous for a Progress launch before. Here's to a good return to flight!
 

Cosmic Penguin

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Report on Progress M-28M

To avoid anything written here causes the butterfly effect that jinxes the 60th Progress flight to the ISS, I'm not going to say anything except for the table below this time. :p :rofl:

rkk-energia-logo.png
9b9e1ab13256d07f258b26cea8c29643.jpg


Launch location:

Baikonur Launch pad no. 1/5 45°55'12.85"N, 63°20'32.27"E

baikonur.jpg


Launch dates and times:

{colsp=6}Launch times

Time Zone |
Australia - Sydney/AEST (UTC+10)
|
Baikonur / UTC+6
|
Moscow / MSKS (UTC+3)/
|
Universal / UTC
|
Washington / EDT (UTC-4)
Launch time (Primary):
|
14:55:50​
|
10:55:50​
|
07:55:50​
|
04:55:50​
|
00:55:50​
on:
|
Jul. 3, 2015
|
Jul. 3, 2015
|
Jul. 3, 2015
|
Jul. 3, 2015
|
Jul. 3, 2015
Launch time (Backup):
|
14:07:35​
|
10:07:35​
|
07:07:35​
|
04:07:35​
|
00:07:35​
on:
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015

{colsp=6}
[highlight][eventTimer]2015-07-03 04:55:50?before|after;%dd% Days %hh% Hours %mm% Minutes %ss% Seconds %c%[/eventTimer] Progress M-28M Launch[/highlight]​

{colsp=5}Docking times

Time Zone |
Australia - Sydney/AEST (UTC+10)
|
Moscow / MSKS (UTC+3)/
|
Universal / UTC
|
Washington / EDT (UTC-4)
Docking time (Primary):
|
17:13:02 ±3 min​
|
10:13:02 ±3 min​
|
07:13:02 ±3 min​
|
04:13:02 ±3 min​
on:
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
|
Jul. 5, 2015
Docking time (Backup):
|
15:28 ±3 min​
|
08:28 ±3 min​
|
05:28 ±3 min​
|
01:28 ±3 min​
on:
|
Jul. 7, 2015
|
Jul. 7, 2015
|
Jul. 7, 2015
|
Jul. 7, 2015

{colsp=5}
[highlight][eventTimer]2015-07-05 10:13:02?before|after;%dd% Days %hh% Hours %mm% Minutes %ss% Seconds %c%[/eventTimer] Progress M-28M docking to ISS[/highlight]​

Live Coverage Of The Launch:


Progress M-28M (industry id 11F615A60 #428, NASA id Progress 60P) cargo spaceship

Cargo Manifest

Code:
Total mass of spacecraft at launch    7282 kg

Propellants for the propulsion system (KDU) 880 kg
Propellants in the refueling system     520 kg

Air                                       22 kg
Oxygen                                 26 kg
Water in Rodnik ("Creek") system tanks  420 kg

Pressured section cargo (total mass 1393 kg)

Equpiment for systems:
* SOGS atmosphere composition control    12 kg
* SVO water supply control               38 kg
* SOTR heat exchange control            10 kg
* STOR maintenance and repair           30 kg
* SUBA control system accessories     6 kg
* SEP power control                       105 kg
* KSPE crew support equipment        44 kg 
* BITS2 on-board information and telemetry system 1 kg
* MBRL antenna connectors               3 kg

*SGO Hygiene and sanitation items      273 kg
*Food rations, fresh products            430 kg
*Medical equipment, underwear,
personal hygiene and care, station
air purity checking and cleaning        137 kg
*Crew support equipment                  44 kg
*Science experiments and apparatus
equipment                                     21 kg
*Maintenance equipment                 3 kg 

*FGB Zarya equipment                    39 kg
*US Segment equipment                55 kg
*US goods for Russian crew            186 kg

Total cargo mass                       2381 kg

Mission Profile

Ascent Chart:
shema_vivedenija_pr28m.gif


1. Approach and Docking Chart:
shema_m28m.gif


The times below are in Moscow Standard Time (UTC+4):

The expected payload separation time: 08:04:39.18

2. Orbital Parameters of Progress M-28M and the ISS

Parameter|Designation|Prorgess-M-28M on 7/3|ISS on 7/5
Orbital Period|T, min|88.59 ±0.37|92.69
Inclination|i, degrees|51.66 ±0.06|51.66
Min altitude|h, km|193 +7 -15|402.85
Max altitude|H, km|245 ±42|426.87
Phase angle between the space ship and the ISS is about 338.8 degrees
Projected life time of the space ship at the nominal orbit is no less than 20 orbits (~30 hrs)

3. Transfer manoeuvres
(two days long approach scheme applied)

* Nominal two-burn manoeuvre forming a phasing orbit
Date|Burn at|Orbit #|Delta V, m/s|Burn duration, s|post-burn T,min|post-burn i,deg|post-burn h,km|post-burn H,km
03.07.15|11:36:07|3|15.63|40.0|89.11|51.65|216.9|258.1
03.07.15|11:59:35|3|22.94|57.7|89.91|51.65|256.4|304.5

* The 2nd day's one-burn correction
Date|Burn at|Orbit #|Delta V, m/s|Burn duration, s|post-burn T,min|post-burn i,deg|post-burn h,km|post-burn H,km
04.07.15|09:40:11|18|2.00|29.3|89.96|51.64|261.3|303.5

Autonomous approach program is initiated at 07:51:02.

4. Approach at the Close range

Fly-around, station keeping and docking procedures will be used on July 5, 2015 from 09:51:20 ±3 min to docking contact

5. Docking

Contact and capture will be performed on July 5, 2015 at 10:13:02 ±3 min

Docking is to DC-1 Pirs -Y docking port

Launch Vehicle:

{colsp=2}Characteristics

soyuz-u.jpg
|
{colsp=2}
Soyuz-U
Prime contractor:​
|
  • Samara Space Sentre (Energia Holding enterprise)
    22460-1-.gif
GRAU Index:​
|
  • 11A511U
Height:​
| 51.1 m

Diameter:​
| max 10.3 m

Liftoff mass:​
| 313 metric tonnes

Payload mass:​
| 6.95 tonnes at ISS orbit from Baikonur

1st stage (boosters B, V, G, D):​
|
  • 4 X RD-117 engines
  • Propellants (T-1 Kerosene and LOX)
  • Thrust/ISP in vacuum - / 316 s
  • Thrust/ISP at sea level 79.4 tonnes / 253 s
  • Total 1st stage's thrust at sea level: 411.1 tonnes
2nd stage (core A):​
|
  • 1 X RD-118 engine
  • Propellants (T-1 Kerosene and LOX)
  • Thrust/ISP in vacuum 102 tonnes / 314 s
  • Thrust/ISP at sea level 83.5 tonnes / 257 s
3rd stage (block I):​
|
  • 1 X RD-0110 engine
  • Propellants (T-1 Kerosene and LOX)
  • Thrust/ISP in vacuum 30.38 tonnes / 359 s

The vehicle's reliability statistics according to http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/log2015.html#rate:

Code:
================================================================ 
Vehicle     Successes/Tries Realzd Pred  Consc. Last     Dates    
                             Rate  Rate* Succes Fail    
================================================================
Soyuz-U          751   771x   .97  .97     14    8/24/11  1973-

x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.

Weather forecast for Baikonur, Kazakhstan on July 3, 2015 (11 a.m.)

Plentiful sunshine. High near 35C. Winds NW at 15 to 30 km/h.

Time|Temps|Dew Point|Relative Humidity|Precip|Snow|Cloud cover|Pressure|Wind|Weather
11 AM|32°C|10°C|25%|0%|0%|0%|1010 hPa|19 km/h NW|
clear.svg
Clear
 

orbitingpluto

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Liftoff through first stage separation went well, and everything is thus far is good. Waiting on second stage sep.

---------- Post added at 05:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:01 AM ----------

Separation went well, now on the third stage.
 

orbitingpluto

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Everything reported deployed, and things look a-okay for the rendezvous on Sunday.
 

MaverickSawyer

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Most importantly, the camera view showed a stable spacecraft. No tumbling.
 
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