Heavy fighting in South Ossetia.

[Notebook]

Yes, as a full Nato partner ( I don't know if there are other types, but I have heard the phrase used, so maybe there are), Nato would have been drawn into the fighting.

I can't see any military intervention from the West, Georgia got that wrong, if thats what it was counting on. With two unpopular conflicts at the moment, it would be political suicide for any politian to suggest it.

I see the French President is off to Moscow and Tiblisi, hope he has more success than his Foreign Minister.

The UK Foreign Office was advising UK citizens not to travel to Georgia, unless they had urgent business. Now they are advising UK citizens to leave as soon as possible.
In their normal understated way, that means things are likely to get worse before they get better.

N.

 

[SiberianTiger]

.

President Medvedev declares the end of the 'peace-enforcing operation'.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7555858.stm

Looks like no siege of Tbilisi will happen anytime soon. The Russian troops aren't leaving from the Georgia's strategic roads either.

 

[Urwumpe]

Things are not over yet. We just have a few hours of cease fire, and just a small error can be reason to let war start again.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Things are not over yet. We just have a few hours of cease fire, and just a small error can be reason to let war start again.

Let's see. Look, I'm probably sitting two miles away from Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev and still can hardly read their minds.

 

[Urwumpe]

Let's see. Look, I'm probably sitting two miles away from Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev and still can hardly read their minds.

I don't even want to imagine Putins thoughts. He sure is somebody who can say good dog and at the same time look for a large stone...

But at least one aspect is interesting: Who governs Russia really? :lol:

 

[ar81]

It looks like weapon manufacturers must be making lots of money with Russian and Georgian taxpayer's money...

 

[Eagle]

It looks like the ceasefire may hold until a solution is found. (I really really hope I'm not wrong there).

:study:
I'm trying to think about why Russia decided to invade. It certainly wasn't for positive PR. I'm not sure if it really does involve the oil pipeline (except maybe a temporary spike in oil prices).

Maybe this is a warning to NATO not to accept Georgia as a member. That seems possible. Annother reason would be to show that Russia is still quite capable militarily and isn't to be trifled with.


Meh, that's my idle speculation. I'm not trained in psyc or international affairs so I should probably hand out grains of salt with ideas (but I can't b/c the salt went on my dinner instead :lol.

 

[Urwumpe]

Eagle: You have to include the tunnel which connects north and south ossetia and is an important strategic resource, as it allows crossing the Caucasus quickly (the alternative is the long and winding road around the black sea coast).

Also, it is not about material stuff, Georgia does not have much, which is worth the trouble. It is just about one thing finally: Prevent that Georgia becomes a NATO member and that the NATO surrounds Russia from all four directions.

 

[Eagle]

Eagle: You have to include the tunnel which connects north and south ossetia and is an important strategic resource, as it allows crossing the Caucasus quickly (the alternative is the long and winding road around the black sea coast).

Really I don't see that tunnel as terribly important unless you plan on moving things through it.

Of course its being used to move men and material now. But in peacetime the only thing to do is run trains through it. Even if Russia controlled the tunnel, they would still need to run trains through Georgia to get anywhere else.

Only change would be who charges tolls and does upkeep. Either side could still restrict traffic to and from the tunnel.


I do wonder if the supposed goal of keeping Georgia out of NATO succeeds. If Georgia is admitted this incident is not likely to be repeated... But I do foresee some NATO nations deciding that Georgia is too risky, exposed, unstable or whatever to be admitted. :dry: An interesting thought when the purpose of NATO is brought to mind.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Eagle: You have to include the tunnel which connects north and south ossetia and is an important strategic resource, as it allows crossing the Caucasus quickly (the alternative is the long and winding road around the black sea coast).

Please, don't overemphasize, there are several alternative mountain passes and tunnels through the Main Caucasus Ridge.


-----Posted Added-----

Meh, that's my idle speculation. I'm not trained in psyc or international affairs so I should probably hand out grains of salt with ideas (but I can't b/c the salt went on my dinner instead :lol.

I will try to put here together my thoughts on this when the things calm down a little. Until now, every other day has been derailing previous suppositions of many.

 

[Notebook]

First repercussions of the Georgian conflict:-

http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKN1252079220080812

N.

 

[Urwumpe]

Please, don't overemphasize, there are several alternative mountain passes and tunnels through the Main Caucasus Ridge.

As far as I know, not or at least no similar economic passage.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Official casualties reports of 8/13/2008

The deputy head of the Russian Joint Staff reported to media today that Russia lost 74 soldiers and officers as casualties during the conflict and 19 more are missing in action. 171 servicemen were wounded.

According to earlier reports, Russia accounted 4 warplanes lost: 3 Su-25 and 1 Tu-22M3. There are no data on armor/artillery and other losses yet.

Meanwhile, Georgia acknowledges 175 casualties, most of whom they claim to be non-combatants. This is obviously far from truth, however, because there are still many wrecked Georgian vehicles on the streets of Tskhinvali that hadn't undergo salvaging, and those vehicles are full of the dead bodies.

As of earlier reports, more than 1500 Ossetians were killed during the first day of the Georgian onslaught on Tskhinvali and adjacent settlements. Operational brigades of Russian Prosecutor's General Office are working in South Ossetia to register the damage done according to the legal procedures.

Today is declared a mourning day both in Russia and Georgia.

 

[n122vu]

According to President Saakashvili, the fighting has not stopped, and Russia is violating the cease fire by continuing to advance in three locations:

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=4346903n

 

[Notebook]

UK ITV News reporter in Georgia has identified the 42nd Motorised Infintary Division outside Gori. I assume these are Russian regular troops?

N.

 

[GregBurch]

I just did a check of three of the leading anti-war groups in the West -- MoveOn,org, International A.N.S.W.E.R and United for Peace and Justice -- and at least on the front pages of their websites, I didn't see any mention of the military action between Russia and Georgia.

How strange ....

 

[Urwumpe]

How did the Tu-22M get lost? Isn't it an exclusive naval bomber? The Su-25s are not unexpected, as they get thick into the fighting.

 

[SiberianTiger]

How did the Tu-22M get lost? Isn't it an exclusive naval bomber? The Su-25s are not unexpected, as they get thick into the fighting.

Basically, we are short of recon drones, so it was sent on a reconnaisance mission in the first day of the conflict. The air division staff did not expect the Georgian side to be armed with Tor-M SAM's (which could only come there from Ukraine, which is a current point of quarrel).

 

[ar81]

Ossetia is the worst show of political incompetence I have ever seen from Russia.
If you need a buffer zone around the country, the worst thing you can do is to attack those who should be your ears and eyes.
Now Georgian population have reasons to be the eyes and ears of enemies.
Whoever planned and executed this is all but a brilliant mind.

I presume they are imitating USA.
But if you follow the path of USA, guess what the result will be.

My bet is that it happens just like with the competition between McDonald-s and Burger King in this country. They focused to much in responding to moves of their competitor and tried to imitate each other, that they forgot about what was the most appropriate action. In the end Taco Bell and Hamburger Factory gained a share of market that used to belong to both.

It is like having two guys fighting for a girl, while a third guy comes to her and offers her flowers. You bet who has higher chances to win.

 

[Urwumpe]

Basically, we are short of recon drones, so it was sent on a reconnaisance mission in the first day of the conflict. The air division staff did not expect the Georgian side to be armed with Tor-M SAM's (which could only come there from Ukraine, which is a current point of quarrel).

Ah, OK. I like the Tor-M missiles, really impressive technology, too bad they are usually on the wrong side. :rofl:

But aren't they build in Russia and not in the Ukraine? So, when Russia does not want to, both Ukraine and Georgia run out of ammo?



-----Posted Added-----

I presume they are imitating USA.
But if you follow the path of USA, guess what the result will be.

A stable democracy with many flaws and follies, but generally a better ally as many other countries in the world?

EDIT: BTW on McDonalds - this morning I saw a reporter speaking in front of a historic (looked like neoclassicism) official looking building. And then I noticed the tiny "McDonalds" sign on it's roof.