News Dozens dead and more missing in Europe flooding.

[Urwumpe]

Some numbers I just found out while researching the open data sites for the water levels in the rivers:

Many sensors are dead now. They failed, for some critical stations, the offices provide estimates, others just ceased to work after delivering extreme record values.

Bad Bodendorf, at the River Ahr, failed to function on the 15th July at 03:45 in the night, with a record level of 483 cm. Past record was from 2016, at "merely" 313 mm.

At Altenahr, it measured 495 cm - past record was again from 2016 there, at 371 cm.

While the Mosela so far records high levels, but not new record values, the situation was much dire at the smaller rivers. Which quickly got overwhelmed by the floods.

 

[GLS]

Now, we have more deaths and missing in Erftstadt, further down the Erft river, after the flooding caused a series of landslides in the quarter of Blessem.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415925994800701441

The cause seems to be a local gravel pit, which got flooded through a sand layer underground and where the rapid subterranean flow eroded the soil above.

Looks like we get the full menu delivered for such a flashflood event. Its now 58 deaths and 1300 missing.

We also got informed from friends that there is now a emergency warning in place in regions of southern Sweden, they also expect massive rainfall and flooding in the next hours.

Just "snapped out" of the work-blender daily cycle and started to pay attention to this... holy ****... spent maybe 10 minutes staring at the insanity that is image on the right.

 

[Urwumpe]

Now it has hit parts of Heinsberg, after a levee failed near it. Part of the problem seems to be, that a floodgate that controls the inflow of the Rur river into the Meuse is closed. Well, the Meuse has also new record water levels, I can understand why nobody wants to make this worse.

 

[N_Molson]

Well it seems that the weather system is moving south towards Italy, so things should slowly get better (well, water levels should start to decrease) in North Germany / Belgium / Netherlands ?

 

[N_Molson]

. spent maybe 10 minutes staring at the insanity that is image on the right.

That one is very dramatic but also a specific case : that area was an old gravel pit that has been filled to build a football field on top of it. Sadly it seems to have completely collasped as the water took the "filling material" (likely sand) away, resulting in a gaping hole.

 

[Urwumpe]

That one is very dramatic but also a specific case : that area was an old gravel pit that has been filled to build a football field on top of it. Sadly it seems to have completely collasped as the water took the "filling material" (likely sand) away, resulting in a gaping hole.

Actually not the gravel pit is further away. All the erosion is inside the former natural riverbed it seems - or at least one of them. Some people with more knowledge of the region say, that the river actually passed righthand of the old castle not lefthand as it does now.

 

[Urwumpe]

And now, new floodings - but this time in the east of Germany, in the "Saxon Switzerland" region. Cause is heavy rainfall in excess of 100l per square meter. Multiple villages are cutoff from the outside world.

Also, there are news of floodings from Austria.

 

[N_Molson]

Also, there are news of floodings from Austria.

That makes sense, and I fear there might be some in Northern Italia (valleys) too. In France the alert shifted from the North-East to the extreme South-East (border with Italy), where severe weather is expected. Good news is that most of the country is enjoying a high-pressure system - that hopefully will shift a bit eastwards.

 

[Urwumpe]

OK, now after some dust settled, things look much worse on an organisational perspective as expected.

The county of Ahrweiler was warned in advance. In the afternoon, and authorized signed mail from the responsible state department warned of a record-breaking 7.0m flooding. Nobody reacted.
In the early evening, this prognosis was reduced a bit, but was still way beyond the "once-in-a-century" flood of 2016.
On 21:30, an email warned that a 6.9m flood will arrive, which really arrived shortly before midnight.

A bit after 23:00, the county decided to declare an state of catastrophy and ordered an evacuation of the lowest parts of the town. But it was already too late, the water was already too high, more of the town was affected than planned to be evacuated.

Most victims in Germany lived in Ahrweiler, even if you include the human ability to act a bit erratic, quite many victims could have been prevented, if the warnings had been taken serious. There was enough time, the warning was precise, there had been no history of false warnings in the past.

 

[Notebook]

Sounds like straight forward negligence.
Why have these systems if no-one reacts?