News COVID-19 pandemic

[Notebook]

Government new measures to aim for excess deaths to be under 20K.
Better than the 200K forecast worst-case.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302


Bosnia has declared State of Emergency.

 

[Linguofreak]

Except that it isn't over yet in China.

Not quite, but close enough. New case numbers are in the single to low double digits per day, down from a peak of nearly 4k per day in early February, and the number of active cases has dropped significantly. My 90 day figure may be on the low side for total duration, depending on what you count as the beginning and end, but the numbers out of China certainly rule out a peak at 300 days in a given nation (and likely also the 6 million infected figure from the Modi-SARS scenario).

It's not panic to implement quarantine measures in response to Covid, it is panic to treat the Modi-SARS scenario as applicable without adjusting it to match the behavior of the actual virus.

 

[Urwumpe]

Sooo... If I got that study right, we might be looking forward to a year or more of standstill? That would be very concerning...

Yes. 360 days of social distancing in the simulation. Unless we are lucky and less days are necessary to get the infection down. But right now, we have not seen the first peak yet.

---------- Post added at 16:20 ---------- Previous post was at 16:18 ----------

Not quite, but close enough.

I want to wait two weeks before I celebrate, I hope you understand. The chinese reacted very harshly to the virus and isolated the country well - but the virus could still have its reservior.

 

[Linguofreak]

Sooo... If I got that study right, we might be looking forward to a year or more of standstill? That would be very concerning...

I'd estimate 2 or 3 months of strict quarantine measures, and then maybe another month or two of milder measures. A year isn't supported by the data we're seeing on the behavior of the real-life virus that we're actually dealing with. That's not to say that is impossible for a SARS-like Coronavirus to match the Modi-SARS scenario, just that this particular virus is very unlikely to match that scenario. The scenario that we're actually presented with is bad enough, though.

---------- Post added at 10:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 ----------

I want to wait two weeks before I celebrate, I hope you understand. The chinese reacted very harshly to the virus and isolated the country well - but the virus could still have its reservior.

We'll see. China has some options that western governments don't have, but they also have weaknesses that western governments don't have.

 

[Ripley]

It's probably to avoid riots, specially from family members that are on the outside.
Another example of the disruptive effect of this virus.

Exactly what we had going on for some days in Italy.

---------- Post added at 15:33 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

...And surprisingly it is almost precisely following the scheme of a fictional virus called "Modi-SARS" which was used in 2013 to check the civil protection mechanisms in Germany for such a fictional scenario...

That's rather worrying.

 

[Sbb1413]

Re: Epidemic of coronavirus

The above graph shows how coronavirus on 2020 affect more people than the influenze on 2018-19. However, the epidemic of coronavirus is "nowhere near as widespread as previous epidemics such as swine flu or the Spanish flu":

Source: Forbes and Snopes.com

Interesting fact

Although the flu of 1918 is called "Spanish flu", it is not originated on Spain.

 

[Buck Rogers]

Although the flu of 1918 is called "Spanish flu", it is not originated on Spain.

IIRC it started on a poultry farm in Wisconson USA. As presently accusations fly between Washington and Beijing!

An interesting perspective on pandemics from the virtual world:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/world-of-warcraft-coronavirus-corrupted-blood
Unfortunetaly the final solution is not applicable in the real world...

 

[Linguofreak]

Interesting fact

Although the flu of 1918 is called "Spanish flu", it is not originated on Spain.

Specifically, it was thought to have originated in Spain because Spain was one of the earlier countries it hit that wasn't a belligerent in WWI. The belligerents all censored news of it to keep up morale.

 

[Frilock]

Well, hell just froze over, Wisconsin ordered the closing of bars and sitdown restaurants!

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, hell just froze over, Wisconsin ordered the closing of bars and sitdown restaurants!

You think this is still possible for hell to freeze over? Guess what Ireland did on St Patricks Day...

 

[Quick_Nick]

Simulate #FlattenTheCurve in your browser

https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

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[Notebook]

BBC has suspended continuous drama productions(soaps to you and me). Also, suspending audience shows.
Rest of UK broadcast channels doing much the same.
Quite a hit to the industry, though its been casualised for some years now.

 

[4throck]

Shows here were suspended last Friday. That was really important for people to realize that this is serious. Specially older people.

Daytime TV shows are now based on Skype interviews, with the channels running with a skeleton crew.

 

[Notebook]

Eurovision Song Contest definitely cancelled this year in Rotterdam.

Tragic, we were in with a good chance.

Also Glastonbury it seems.

Sellafield nuclear site is shutting down its magnox reactor.
Thought it was closed a few years ago?

 

[Fabri91]

An interview [German language] with Bergamo's mayor on the current situation.

 

[Urwumpe]

Our Chancellorette will speak to the nation today. I doubt she will announce much bad news, but people are already fearing a full curfew of the country.

 

[Sunhillow]

Our Chancellorette will speak to the nation today. I doubt she will announce much bad news, but people are already fearing a full curfew of the country.

Curfew would have been rational already on friday. I think Macron did it better, and he has the advantage of a central government compared to our (german) federal organisation of the state.

To my taste the german curve shown here:
https://de.statista.com/statistik/d...ch-laendern-seit-erreichen-der-100-infektion/
looks too similar to Italy. France is less rampant and South Corea looks comme il faut. It's a pity they don't show Japan there.

The explanatory text is in german. The curves show the development of case numbers after the hundredth case.

Example from today:

 

[4throck]

Very interesting data. Is it absolute numbers or by population?

 

[kuddel]

Very interesting data. Is it absolute numbers or by population?

Good point. That's why I don't like those "meta-data sites", that require you to register when clicking on "sources"...
The data-source seems to be Johns Hopkins University, so one might have to look there for the numbers.

 

[Quick_Nick]

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is on CNBC right now giving perhaps the most emotional fear mongering speech I've ever heard.

The market is toast today, and probably double when the video/audio starts getting shared across the Internet.

I'm not saying he's even totally wrong, but he could not be trying harder to induce panic.

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