News China Invited to Join ISS

[Urwumpe]

I'd rather supplement the "skill set" table above with...

Correct me if I'm wrong somewhere.

OK, my try to fix the data a bit:

Technology|China|USA|Russia\USSR|Europe
Lunar probes|Present|Advanced|Lost|Advanced
Lunar Landers|R&D|Advanced|Lost|R&D
Interplanetary probes|No|Advanced|Lost|Advanced
Interplanetary landers|No|Advanced|Lost|R&D
Interplanetary rovers|No|Advanced|Lost|R&D
Automatic reentry capsules|Present|Present|Present|R&D
Non-pressurized platforms|Present|Present|Poor|Present
Civilian optical remote sensing|Poor|Advanced|Poor|Advanced
Civilian radar remote sensing|No|Present|No|Advanced
Civilian scientific satellites|Present|Present|R&D|Present
Civilian GEO broadcasters|Present|Present|Present|Advanced
Civilian weather satellites|Present|Advanced|Poor|Advanced
Civilian satellite navigation|R&D|Advanced|Present|R&D
Military IMINT remote sensing|Present|Advanced|Poor|Advanced
Military radar remote sensing|Advanced|Advanced|Poor|Advanced
Military ELINT satellites|Present|Present|Present|Present
Military missile attack warning (MASINT) satellites|?|Present|Poor|No
Military naval targeting satellites|Present|No|Lost|No
Milstar-like satellites (GEO)|Present|Advanced|Present|Present
TDRS-like satellites (GEO)|No|Present|Present|Present
LEO inspection spacecraft|No|Present|No|No
GEO inspection spacecraft|No|R&D|No|R&D
Military weather satellites|Present|Advanced|Poor|No
Military satellite navigation|R&D|Advanced|Present|No
Annual LEO lift frequency|~4 times/y|~ 8 times/y|~20 times/y|2-3 times/y
Annual GEO lift frequency|~2 times/y|~ 5 times/y|~6 times/y| 4-5 times/y
Cryogenic upper stages|Present|Present|R&D|Present
Space monitoring capability (NORAD-like)|?|Advanced|Present|Present
Ballistic Missile intercept capability|Present|Advanced|Present|Present
Launch sites (active + being built)|3+1|6|2+1|3

One aspect you for example have wrong is ballistic missile intercept - China has, like Russia, still a tactical ballistic missile intercept capability, but only Russia has also a present theater ballistic missile intercept capability, while the USA and China are still R&D there.

Also, I split the interplanetary category... Mars is not the same as Moon.

Also, China has actually no true civilian remote sensing program and Europe does not make use of dedicated military weather satellites, like the USA do.

The inspection capability has also been reduced - even if you include manned spacecraft, there is a difference between cooperative docking and uncooperative. Only Russia can be considered "Present" there, since the Soyuz and Progress spacecraft can both rendezvous with uncooperative targets. The Space Shuttle could theoretically do the same, but it no longer done for the last flights until it is phased out.

The European launch rate was too low - It was seven launches last year, this year will be seven as well. Once Vega starts to launch, there will be also many launches of LEO payloads, that currently go to Russia.

Chinas rates had been greatly overestimated by you:

http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/log2009.html

Also, if you include also the suborbital launch sites and small orbital launch sites of the USA and China, you should do the same for Russia and Europe as well - we have also two minor launch sites in Scandinavia. Baikonur is now not owned by Russia, but still the Russian spaceport.

Also, the definition of "lost" is a bit hard for technology, I now tried to apply it to technology that would effectively require a clean sheet design for being revived.

 

[SiberianTiger]

The inspection capability has also been reduced - even if you include manned spacecraft, there is a difference between cooperative docking and uncooperative. Only Russia can be considered "Present" there, since the Soyuz and Progress spacecraft can both rendezvous with uncooperative targets. The Space Shuttle could theoretically do the same, but it no longer done for the last flights until it is phased out.

To comment on that, I have to mention MiTEx USA program as what I think is a demonstration of developed GEO spacecraft inspection capability and the very recent Chinese SJ-12 manoeuvres that can be accounted for exercising an inspection in LEO.

 

[Urwumpe]

To comment on that, I have to mention MiTEx USA program as what I think is a demonstration of developed GEO spacecraft inspection capability and the very recent Chinese SJ-12 manoeuvres that can be accounted for exercising an inspection in LEO.

The SJ-12 maneuvers could also have been a primitive rendezvous technology test, the number of maneuvers for getting close are not looking very advanced. It is possible that the bumping of the spacecraft into each other had actually been an accident and not desired. 50 days for a plane alignment is a far too long time for anything useful. Maybe it was also just a ruse, raising fears in the USA about much more advanced technology in China.

Didn't hear much about MiTex there, but it seems cooperative and thus more like remote satellite repair.

 

[SiberianTiger]

One aspect you for example have wrong is ballistic missile intercept - China has, like Russia, still a tactical ballistic missile intercept capability, but only Russia has also a present theater ballistic missile intercept capability, while the USA and China are still R&D there.

I was thinking of kinetic interceptors here, also suitable for LEO satellite interception. The "nuclear barrage" A-135 is only to be used at last resort during a nuclear missile attack, and it certainly has a reachable saturation point...

The European launch rate was too low - It was seven launches last year, this year will be seven as well. Once Vega starts to launch, there will be also many launches of LEO payloads, that currently go to Russia.

Or appearance of operating Vega will cause a considerable cost drop for Dnepr launches (which thus far only consist of operating and collateral costs, rockets come for no cost from the store).

Chinas rates had been greatly overestimated by you:

The current final estimate for 2010 is 14 Chinese space launches, which may exceed USA rate. And they mostly launch government payloads.

Also, if you include also the suborbital launch sites and small orbital launch sites of the USA and China, you should do the same for Russia and Europe as well - we have also two minor launch sites in Scandinavia. Baikonur is now not owned by Russia, but still the Russian spaceport.

Let me count orbital launch facilities, USA: KSC(1), Cape Canaveral(2), Vandenberg(3), Wallops(4), Kodiak(5), Kwadjalein(6); China: Jiuquan(1), Taiyuan(2), Xichang(3), Wenchang(4, under construction); Russia: Plesetsk(1), Baikonur(2) and, okay, Yasny/Dombarovsky(3). Kap'Yar & Svobodny are retired. I will believe in Vostochny when I see pictures of a launch complex under construction. Europe: Kourou(1) - have any orbital launches been performed from the Scandinavian sites?

 

[Urwumpe]

I was thinking of kinetic interceptors here, also suitable for LEO satellite interception. The "nuclear barrage" A-135 is only to be used at last resort during a nuclear missile attack, and it certainly has a reachable saturation point...

No, you also have the S-300/S-400 which has limited ballistic missile capabilities (not ICBMs, but IRBMs or SLBMs). Also, any russian SAM past 1964 had a useful effectivity against IRBMs. Not perfect, but useful.

Europe: Kourou(1) - have any orbital launches been performed from the Scandinavian sites?

No, but there had been San Marco and Woomera before ESA was founded and Kourou was selected as prime space launch complex.

China does also not do launches from every launch complex, what I can read.

 

[SiberianTiger]

China does also not do launches from every launch complex, what I can read.

From http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/log2010.txt:

10/31/10 CZ-3C             CZ3C6  Beidou 2-G4                     [COLOR="Red"]XC 2[/COLOR]       GTO
10/06/10 CZ-4B             CZ4B17 Shijian 6 4A/4B         ~2.0    [COLOR="Red"]TY 2[/COLOR]       LEO/S
09/22/10 CZ-2D             CZ2D14 Yaogan Weixing 11               [COLOR="Red"]JQ 4/L[/COLOR]     LEO/S

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

Roscosmos PAO: "11th Meeting of the Russian – Chinese Space Cooperation Subcommittee Began in Beijing".

The 11th meeting of the Russian–Chinese Space Cooperation Subcommittee began in Beijing today, on Nov. 2. The Subcommittee deals with preparation of the Heads of the Governments.
The meeting is attended by the delegation of Federal Space Agency led by Roscosmos Head Anatoly Perminov.
The Subcommittee is to conclude on the results of actions taken at the previous meeting, as well as to define specific steps in further evolution of the bilateral initiatives.
Roscosmos Head, who chairs the Subcommittee on the Russian side, Anatoly Perminov made an introductory speech at the meeting. On behalf of the Federal Space Agency, he greeted Administrator of Chinese Space Administration Chen Qiufa and Chinese colleagues on successful launch of lunar exploration station Chang-E2.
Speaking about Russian-Chinese space relationship, Perminov noted that this cooperation had a long history which had been developing permanently. The Subcommittee plays important role here, as a bilateral organ established in the framework of the regular negotiations between Russian and Chinese Premiers. A key element in cooperation of the two Governments, it initiated activation of the Russian – Chinese collaboration which evolves in mutually beneficial manner.
Roscosmos Head also emphasized that cooperation with the Chinese party is built today taking into account significant results achieved by the country in space exploration. Space agencies of Russia and China cooperate more and more in new advanced branches, some of which are/will be implements as joint projects.
These objectives have been reflected in Russian-Chinese Space Program of 2010–2012 approved in Oct. 2009 during the 14th meeting of the Russian and Chinese Governments.
The Program lays reliable grounds for further development and intensification of cooperation for the upcoming years, as it implies mutually beneficial collaboration aimed at improving space science and products.
In general, the results of Russian-Chinese space cooperation provide the way for further development of the relationship of the two countries in this industry.
Chairman of the Subcommittee Anatoly Perminov also expressed his assurance of the 11th meeting to become one more significant milestone in enhancement of the Russian-Chinese space programs.