News Category 5 Hurricane Matthew threatens Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas and the US

[Traveller]

Unfortunately,I live an hour away from KSC.

I got you beat. I'm fifteen. Wait, that might not be good.

 

[DaveS]

This is the latest from the KSC EOC:

The KSC EOC is activated in support of Hurricane Matthew.

KSC is in HURCON II as of 0900L on 05 Oct 2016.

KSC is currently closed to all non-essential personnel and will remain closed
through at least Friday 07 Oct 2016.

Gate 2 will be closed on Thursday October 6, 2016 at 2:00 p.m. and remain closed until Tuesday October 11, 2016 at 5:30 am. When Gate 2 is closed, personnel must use Space Commerce Way and enter Gate 3 on S.R. 405 (NASA Parkway) to enter or depart KSC.

 

[Kyle]

Right now the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is showing Matthew making landfall with winds of 130mph. Considering how much damage was done to the VAB in 2004, there could be structural damage this time around.

 

[Urwumpe]

Good news are, that the storm is weaker than feared now, there is only a lower chance of 74 mph winds at the Space coast now (50%-60%).

 

[Interceptor]

I got you beat. I'm fifteen. Wait, that might not be good.

Yeah we evacuated to Crystal river last night,I hope,I have condo to come back to.

---------- Post added at 10:49 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:36 AM ----------

Good news are, that the storm is weaker than feared now, there is only a lower chance of 74 mph winds at the Space coast now (50%-60%).

I had just read that the storm has gained speed,and could be a category 4,or,5.

 

[Urwumpe]

I had just read that the storm has gained speed,and could be a category 4,or,5.

The latest advisory (34A) is like that:

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

Corrected reference point for location from Nassau to Freeport.

...HURRICANE MATTHEW RELENTLESSLY POUNDING THE BAHAMAS...
...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 78.4 West.  The hurricane is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north-
northwest tonight or early Friday.  On the forecast track, the eye
of Matthew should be near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the
next few hours, and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible,
and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches
the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas reported 97 mph (156 km/h)
sustained winds earlier today when the northern eyewall moved over
that island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of the
central Bahamas and are already spreading across the northwestern
Bahamas.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...4 to 6 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible along the Atlantic
coastal area of north and central Florida tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.  These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

Category 4 is bad. But if you remember we had been seeing a category 5 coming around, its better than feared.

 

[DaveS]

SpaceVids.tv is running a live feed from a webcam in Jacksonville, FL:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjIDWTG6-CQ"]Live from Space - YouTube[/ame]

Edit: Now they switched over to a feed of the ESA ISS orbital tracker.

 

[Urwumpe]

Down to Category 3, right in front of Cape Canaveral. Eyewall is approaching it.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...WESTERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE
CANAVERAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Jupiter Inlet south to Boca Raton has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued south of Boca Raton, as well as for
Lake Okeechobee. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued
south of Anna Maria Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Jupiter Inlet to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City
* Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew. The Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this
morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 80.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as
it moves near the coast of Florida today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).  During the past hour, a sustained wind of 49 mph
(80 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was reported at Vero
Beach, Florida.  A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust
to 69 mph (111 km/h) was reported at Melbourne, Florida.  NOAA buoy
41009 off Cape Canaveral recently reported a sustained wind of 65
mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today.  Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside
during the day.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South
Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River,
South Carolina.  There is the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee
River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the northwestern Bahamas...with
isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over
the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.  These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

---------- Post added at 01:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 PM ----------

Sadly, it looks like webcams around KSC are down.

---------- Post added at 01:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:42 PM ----------

000
WTNT64 KNHC 071055
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
700 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...7 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WESTERN EDGE OF MATTHEW'S EYEWALL CONTINUES TO BRUSH CAPE
CANAVERAL...

During the past hour, a wind gust of 107 mph (170 km/h) occurred on
the tip of Cape Canaveral.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

 

[Traveller]

The center of the storm passed by me at 6:30AM this morning, at a distance of about 50 miles. I had sustained tropical storm force winds, with hurricane force gusts, I'm sure. I have a few more hours until the rain field completely clears me.

 

[steph]

Some model runs show it doubling back on the Florida coastline in the +48 h timeframe,. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are showing it , but it's still unlikely, since it's such an unusual trajectory.

 

[Urwumpe]

Some model runs show it doubling back on the Florida coastline in the +48 h timeframe,. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are showing it , but it's still unlikely, since it's such an unusual trajectory.

Well, the Fujiwhara effect applies in this case, because of tropical storm Nicole nearby.

 

[Zatnikitelman]

Some model runs show it doubling back on the Florida coastline in the +48 h timeframe,. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are showing it , but it's still unlikely, since it's such an unusual trajectory.

There is broad model consensus that it's going to loop. The specifics may differ, but there's more than enough agreement to indicate some kind of loop will happen: http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14

 

[Donamy]

Probably will just curly-q back to the east and give Bermuda a good soaking.

 

[Urwumpe]

How many loops can a Hurricane make? :hmm: