News COVID-19 pandemic

[insanity]

Their parents and grandparents that they live with on the other hand... :facepalm:




MIT did a study of the COVID-19 virus load found in the Boston sewage system and inferred an infected population of approximately 115,000 for a system that serves about 2.3 million. There are only 650 confirmed tested cases for that same region.

Also, I think schools have these adults who work in them. I can't remember what they call them... teachers, maybe?

So Ron DeSantis says, "Educators are disposable in Florida." COVID-19 is a sickness. The GOP is a cancer.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Here's a link to MIT's Underworld lab that is doing the testing of Boston's sewage:

http://underworlds.mit.edu/

And a pre-print of their study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20051540v1.full.pdf

Interesting method. Order of magnitude are valuable here - this disease seems to have spread far wider than our testing indicates.

 

[Artlav]

TL;DR: "The reason for the discrepancy is not yet clear, and until further experiments are complete, these data do not necessarily indicate that clinical estimates are incorrect."

So let's not fall into the hands of a much more lethal disease called optimism.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

TL;DR: "The reason for the discrepancy is not yet clear, and until further experiments are complete, these data do not necessarily indicate that clinical estimates are incorrect."

So let's not fall into the hands of a much more lethal disease called optimism.

Optimistic about what? They are presenting information about the prevalence of the disease in the population possibly being higher than that captured by testing. It's neither optimistic or pessimistic - it addresses the need to determine the prevalence of this disease by a different means.

 

[Urwumpe]

Optimistic about what? They are presenting information about the prevalence of the disease in the population possibly being higher than that captured by testing. It's neither optimistic or pessimistic - it addresses the need to determine the prevalence of this disease by a different means.

Still, it could be wrong. Remember the early research, that the virus survives very long on certain surfaces? The detection method actually caused this, it was impossible to infect cells with the material found on the surfaces, it was just particles of a virus, but no complete virus.

 

[Linguofreak]

Also, I think schools have these adults who work in them. I can't remember what they call them... teachers, maybe?

So Ron DeSantis says, "Educators are disposable in Florida." COVID-19 is a sickness. The GOP is a cancer.

The following doesn't apply to DeSantis, who is 40, but the attitude of a fair portion of the older conservative population is "I've enjoyed my life, I'm not afraid to die, so why screw things up for the young folks to keep me alive?"

Of course, filial piety is also one of the traditional virtues, so even if the old folks are raring to exit stage left, it's not entirely a conservative thing to do for the younger folk to push them, and not *all* of the older folks will want to exit, so it isn't great for the older folks that are fine with the prospect to pull them, either (c.f. Dan Patrick here in TX, age 70, who has said some things that are rather ghastly, and would be downright monstrous if he were much younger).

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Still, it could be wrong. Remember the early research, that the virus survives very long on certain surfaces? The detection method actually caused this, it was impossible to infect cells with the material found on the surfaces, it was just particles of a virus, but no complete virus.

Agreed, but they are pretty forthright about that. It's an interesting idea though. In-line monitoring of a sewer system for viral load could be a useful proxy measurement for the temporal status of a disease in a large population. Individual testing is rarely going to be comprehensive enough in time or space resolution to capture how endemic a disease is in large populations.

 

[richfororbit]

The figures so far, are quite high, there are a number of recoveries from this virus.

It is a big possibility that stability will be achieved by october. Some experts have said up to a year, until the current situation changes. I thought five months when the lock down began, and that wasn't based of numbers or academic study or anything like, just the knock on effect, debt, and all the rest of it.

I guess the governments will continue to pay wages until perhaps october.

 

[Screamer7]

Still, it could be wrong. Remember the early research, that the virus survives very long on certain surfaces? The detection method actually caused this, it was impossible to infect cells with the material found on the surfaces, it was just particles of a virus, but no complete virus.

Very interesting. My biggest concern was to catch the virus from contaminated surfaces. So airborne particles are still the biggest source of catching the virus. Like somebody is couching or sneezing?

 

[jedidia]

Remember the early research, that the virus survives very long on certain surfaces? The detection method actually caused this, it was impossible to infect cells with the material found on the surfaces, it was just particles of a virus, but no complete virus.

Can I have sauce with that? Most FAQs I can find still suggest to disinfect frequently touched metallic surfaces.

 

[Notebook]

Bill Gates: Few countries will get 'A-grade' for coronavirus response
Speaking exclusively to BBC Breakfast Bill Gates has said we are "in uncharted territory" due to a lack of investment and preparation for such a pandemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world...ies-will-get-a-grade-for-coronavirus-response

 

[fort]

Can I have sauce with that? Most FAQs I can find still suggest to disinfect frequently touched metallic surfaces.

By the fact and for all that I have read, and I have read a lot, nobody really knows what to think about all this, in terms of duration, and in terms of contagiousness. Duration: from a few hours to two to three days, depending on the materials, but the few studies produced did not use the same experimental conditions. Contagiousness: we should say "virality" and almost "viral quantity" (... of virus). So yes, as Urwumpe says, rather fragments of virus, like those found by those who had tried to detect it in the air *. Notion of: "viable virus".

But a little alcohol or bleach on surfaces like taps, door handles (all doors), switches, it can be useful.

* https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf

and

* https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2

Ah and, another subject:
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/



Good day

 

[4throck]

Contagiousness: we should say "virality" and almost "viral quantity" (... of virus).

Yes, nobody knows the amount needed to get you infected.

So far it seems that you reach the needed amount faster on surfaces through touching.
Some surfaces are touched by many people repeatedly, and you touch you face/mouth all the time without noticing.

Through air it will be a random spread, so unless you are in a place full of infected people coughing all the time, the load should be lower.

 

[Notebook]

Summary
A further 737 people have died with coronavirus in UK hospitals, taking the total recorded death toll to 10,612
Health Secretary Matt Hancock calls it a sombre day and says future of virus is unknowable
UK PM Boris Johnson is discharged from hospital after being in intensive care with Covid-19
Christians are celebrating Easter, despite lockdowns that have left hundreds of millions confined to their homes
Pope Francis broadcasts Easter Sunday Mass online from empty St Peter's Basilica
Italy records its lowest daily death toll in more than three weeks
Some 1.8 million cases have been confirmed globally, according to Johns Hopkins University
More than 112,000 people have died while 415,000 have recovered

PM BJ is out of hospital. Unless he is a very good actor he seems to be a bit humbled and grateful to be here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52259683

 

[fort]

Boris Johnson. As we say for a boxing fight: can be a little "sounded" ? And part of the world with him. And the economy as much. Next ? India? Africa, but which one? It seems here that things are calming and that the progression of the Covid has slowed down for a few days. Around 100,000 confirmed cases (severe cases diagnosed in hospitals) but many others, less serious, untested, and around 15,000 people died (hospitals, retirement homes). It is likely that full containment will be extended from 15 days to a month from Monday. But: it seems that the disease has currently affected only 10 to 15% of the population. And for the moment we have only few screening tests, few seropositivity tests (detecting antibodies / anticorps), few masks beyond hospital needs. Therefore a return to the "open air" will take time. The decompression chamber is not ready.

 

[4throck]

The decompression chamber is not ready.

Public perception can change in a day.
When the public became aware and scared, politicians closed everything the next day. The threshold was different for each country, but the change was overnight.

The reverse will be true.
When the public thinks "let's move on", and accepts nn deaths per day as normal, politicians will follow. Again, it will be overnight.

 

[Urwumpe]

Public perception can change in a day.
When the public became aware and scared, politicians closed everything the next day. The threshold was different for each country, but the change was overnight.

Not really overnight here, unless you think Germans consider a period of four weeks "overnight"



Even for my employer it took us effectively three weeks of transition from the first health recommendations to the current state of 80% of the employees working from home.

 

[Linguofreak]

The US has seen three days straight of the number of new cases declining.

 

[fort]

Public perception ...

I keep a little astonishment as to the speed with which, here, the idea and the putting into practice of containment was accepted. It seems to me that it was the people themselves who were more persuaded of this than anyone's speech to that effect.

How will we look at this in ten months, in two years ?

On the other hand, when I see how the shops were invaded from the first day - but curiously still the shelves of toilet paper robbed - I can believe that in the minds of some people, things, far from being looked at with reason and pragmatism, should be seen as a remake of the war years. It is true that this is the very word that the President had just used. But from there to understand it thus ...

 

[Urwumpe]

How will we look at this in ten months, in two years ?

I doubt we will even remember it well. Who still knows what happened in April 2019? Or April 2018?



I hope, the right people will learn from the pandemic and when ever somebody questions the bigger reserves and new playbooks for a once in a lifetime event, all that will be needed will be "Because we want no second COVID-2019"



Also I hope more people will now realize, that the internet is not for spreading hatred and kitten movies, but actually is a critical infrastructure, since the internet solved many problems that would have been a big mess in the time before it. Maybe teaching children online will become a new channel, that supplements the classic classroom and can mostly compensate it, when similar problems happen again.


The blunt capitalism failed again. There are things, that are no market. Not traded on a big bazar. We should keep that in mind. Capitalism is maybe the best theory of economics we have right now, but its shortcomings are getting visible again. We need a new evolution there.



This one was much worse than SARS. And still, there are some things around that make me optimistic for the future. The citizens can do astounding things, if you tell them in calm, simple words what the problem is. Much better and faster, than if you would have needed to force them to a behavior by police and miliary. We should keep this spirit alive in good times. Having smart empathic citizens is a great asset. If you have enough of them, even the usual mass of huge idiots is not harmful.


And we need bigger boots for kicking the lies. When Hungary gets a huge aid package from the EU, they should fear the consequences of cheating it (again), lying to their own population that the EU did not help, only the tyrants of Russia, China and Turkey. The EU did 200 times more then those did. Much faster than they did, silently and professionally.



The tyrants need willing liars to celebrate them. The democrats are expected to only get satisfaction in doing their best duty. That must change. We must celebrate the good guys again. Especially we need to pay proper wages to health care workers, because we expect a lot from them in good times and we expected at least heroic performances in the past months.