Could Comet C/2013 A1 impact Mars in 2014?

[RGClark]

Even if the comet does not hit in 2014 it will be interesting to see if the close pass is accompanied by actual impacts. This will be a good test of the theory that close passes are accompanied by increased meteor impacts.

Bob Clark

 

[Screamer7]

I think that IF this comet hit Mars, MSL would be in far a hard time.
And the MER rover Opportunity might as well not survived at all.
There will be a lot of dust in the atmosphere for a long time, and Opportunity solar panels might not produce enough power at all.
Although it may be awful to watch, let's hope it do not happen for the sake of the rovers on Mars.
BTW, why did it take so long to accurately predict this comet orbit?

 

[Athena]

BTW, why did it take so long to accurately predict this comet orbit?

It wasn't discovered years ago...it was just discovered...just this January 3,(yes, this year) And it takes a bit of time to calculate its trajectory...even with modern technology.

 

[garyw]

It wasn't discovered years ago...it was just discovered...just this January 3,(yes, this year) And it takes a bit of time to calculate its trajectory...even with modern technology.

Correct, C/2013 A1

C=Coment
2013=Year of discovery
A1 = The first one found in that year.

It takes quite a few observations to work out the orbit. I think in this case there have been about 102 observations so it's orbit is know but can still be refined.

 

[Urwumpe]

Correct, C/2013 A1

C=Coment
2013=Year of discovery
A1 = The first one found in that year.

It takes quite a few observations to work out the orbit. I think in this case there have been about 102 observations so it's orbit is know but can still be refined.

Actually

C = unperiodic comet = Orbit period bigger than 200 years and no known other perihelion passage in history.

Such comets are in highly eccentric or even hyperbolic orbits and extremely fast in the inner solar system, and as such, only spend a short period of time in our observation zone.

The A also means: Discovered in the first two weeks of the year. The first one found in a year could actually in theory also be a C/2013 Z1 - in a very unlucky year (Z = last two weeks of the year).

 

[RGClark]

It would be spectacular event if it hits. Imagine all the scientific data that could be gathered from monitoring the impact in real time. Some of the Mars terraforming scenarios calls for bomabrding Mars with comets to heat it up and relese CO2. A natural impact would show if it is viable or not. An impact of that size would launch some Martian debris above escape velocity so it is possible Earth would get fresh samples of Martian rocks. And a crater would expose fresh rock layers making the impact site a treasure for any future missions.

Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/


Bob Clark

 

[RisingFury]

Hundreds of comets and asteroids have struck Mars throughout its history, as shown by its many craters. Still no Martians waving at us. What could possibly make you think that this impact would make Mars habitable?!

You might not want to quote sources that confuse the words "habitable" and "inhabitable".

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Hundreds of comets and asteroids have struck Mars throughout its history, as shown by its many craters. Still no Martians waving at us. What could possibly make you think that this impact would make Mars habitable?!

You might not want to quote sources that confuse the words "habitable" and "inhabitable".

I think the feeling is that this impact will be much harder & higher energy than any previous ones, possibly releasing enough frozen volatiles to give mars something of an atmosphere again. I'm pretty skeptical of that too, though. I hope it doesn't impact, saving the exploration for us (or our descendants more likely)

 

[Athena]

Remember, Mars can't hold all of that gas even if theres enough ice to evaporate into a thick atmosphere..

 

[RisingFury]

I think the feeling is that this impact will be much harder & higher energy than any previous ones, possibly releasing enough frozen volatiles to give mars something of an atmosphere again. I'm pretty skeptical of that too, though. I hope it doesn't impact, saving the exploration for us (or our descendants more likely)

No, no it won't be. Mars has been nearly destroyed in its past. Its irregular shape is believed to be the result of a very large impact.

Hell, a very large impact in its past is currently the best explanation we have for its LOSS of atmosphere.

 

[RGClark]

Hundreds of comets and asteroids have struck Mars throughout its history, as shown by its many craters. Still no Martians waving at us. What could possibly make you think that this impact would make Mars habitable?!

You might not want to quote sources that confuse the words "habitable" and "inhabitable".

Like flammable and inflammable they can be used interchangeably. It does not mean inhabited.
The number of nuclear bombs this is equivalent to is in the range I seem to recall to terraform Mars.


Bob Clark

 

[Athena]

Like flammable and inflammable they can be used interchangeably. It does not mean inhabited.
The number if nuclear bombs this is equivalent to is in the range I seem to recall to terraform Mars.


Bob Clark

 

[RGClark]

While Aragorn has a great deal of expertise in battling orcs, I would not say it extends to terraforming planets.


Bob Clark

 

[Ghostrider]

While Aragorn has a great deal of expertise in battling orcs, I would not say it extends to terraforming planets.

That's Boromir. Please let's not mix our Dúnedain up.

 

[Quick_Nick]

Even if the comet does not hit in 2014 it will be interesting to see if the close pass is accompanied by actual impacts. This will be a good test of the theory that close passes are accompanied by increased meteor impacts.

Bob Clark

Not exactly. This is specifically a comet, not some rocky asteroid. We already know that comets are the cause of major meteor showers as it is.
(Someone correct me?)

 

[RGClark]

That's Boromir. Please let's not mix our Dúnedain up.

I bow to your superior LOTR knowledge.

Bob Clark

---------- Post added at 12:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:09 PM ----------

Not exactly. This is specifically a comet, not some rocky asteroid. We already know that comets are the cause of major meteor showers as it is.
(Someone correct me?)

The relation between comets and asteroids is evolving. Indeed the distinction is blurring.


Bob Clark

 

[Screamer7]

IMHO Mars will never be able to retain a atmosphere ever again.
It is to small and it's gravity is to weak.
It looks like Mars lost it's magnetic field a long time ago, making it venerable to the Sun constantly bombarding it with radiation, and slowly erode it's atmosphere into space.
But I think we are heading to an off topic direction now...........

 

[BruceJohnJennerLawso]

Love that, but it would help if the text was not on top of his face. :thumbup:

 

[Athena]

The latest trajectory of comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) generated by the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicates the comet will pass within 186,000 miles (300,000 kilometers) of Mars and there is a strong possibility that it might pass much closer. The NEO Program Office's current estimate based on observations through March 1, 2013, has it passing about 31,000 miles (50,000 kilometers) from the Red Planet's surface. That distance is about two-and-a-half times that of the orbit of outermost moon, Deimos.

Scientists generated the trajectory for comet Siding Spring based on the data obtained by observations since October 2012. Further refinement to its orbit is expected as more observational data is obtained. At present, Mars lies within the range of possible paths for the comet and the possibility of an impact cannot be excluded. However, since the impact probability is currently less than one in 600, future observations are expected to provide data that will completely rule out a Mars impact.

During the close Mars approach the comet will likely achieve a total visual magnitude of zero or brighter, as seen from Mars-based assets. From Earth, the comet is not expected to reach naked eye brightness, but it may become bright enough (about magnitude 8) that it could be viewed from the southern hemisphere in mid-September 2014, using binoculars, or small telescopes.

Source: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/comet20130305.html

 

[Mister Mxyzptlk]

Yes Screamer 7 I too understood that Mars lost it's atmosphere from solar wind bombardment due to a weak magnetic field (because the core is more or less solid) and of course low gravity. If any of the more learned Orbinauts would care to expound I am all ears.