Can anyone enlighten me on the progress in providing off-site power to Units 3 and 4? The IAEA release of March 23 (
http://www.iaea.org/press/?p=1621) says progress is uncertain, while the CNN link posted by
steph has this:
That the lighting in the control rooms is restored is confirmed also by other sources now.
Essentially, without any power supply, including batteries, there is no control over the reactor in the control room. All sensors and actuators are dead. But you still have manual controls in the reactor building, but outside the containment. Most important valves are operated by pneumatic power, that can also be switched manually by valves, as long as there is enough pressure stored in the system. That happened in Fukushima from the first day on, as far as I can tell, even the emergency pressure relief valves had to be operated manually.
But you fly blind. You can't measure any quantity of the core anymore, except temperatures outside the containment. You can't even enter the primary containment anymore by workers, because the pressure and temperature inside it grows rapidly during the process.
And by the way, what can be the latent + acute death toll under two competing scenarios:
a) Seawater cooling as it is done now
b) Localisation a la Chernobyl (with boron, dolomite and lead).
Only one victim is guaranteed - the truth.
Otherwise, I wouldn't know, and I am sure, nobody could really tell in advance. Fukushima is not Chernobyl, and compared to Chernobyl, there is a huge lack in resolve by TEPCO to give up their reactors completely in favor of reducing the damage to the world around the plant.
If more than 20 people die by acute radiation poisoning, this would be an extraordinary surprise, especially now. I would rather expect something along maximal 12 workers getting radiation poisoning, but not directly lethal. The cancer rates, especially among young children in the whole region around the plant, up to 400 km along the coast, will skyrocket. Even less radiation has already deadly effects on children.