News Predictions Estimate a Discovery of an Earthlike Planet by May 2011

[fireballs619]

A new paper estimates that an earth-like, habitable planet will be found by May 2011.

From the Gizmodo Article:

Using the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, we developed a simple metric of habitability for each planet that uses its mass and temperature to rate it on a scale of 0 to 1, where 1 is Earth-like, and 0 is so very not Earth-like. Plotting these values over time and taking the upper envelope yields a nice march towards habitability.

Using a simple bootstrap sampling analysis, we calculated when a logistic curve fit to such an upper envelope would get to a habitability of approximately 1. And the likeliest time is early to mid-2011, or more precisely, early May 2011.

I am somewhat skeptical of this, but I still find the news exciting. I have not had time to read through the paper (which is included in the links below), but after a quick overview, it seems to be mathematically sound. Of course, they are basing this claim off of extrapolations, but that does not diminish their claims.

The paper is only seven pages long, so it shouldn't take to long to read. I have no doubt that it will be way over my head, but I will still find it enjoyable. The paper will be published on PLoS ONE (Not sure how reliable this is, but still cool) on October 4th.

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Samuel Arbesman's Blog (Co-author of the paper)
Greg Laughlin's Blog (Co-author of the paper)
Gizmodo Article
A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth (the paper itself)

 

[Zatnikitelman]

Sounds kind of like a Moore's law for exoplanets
Didn't people not take that law seriously at first?

 

[Linguofreak]

The thing is that that only says that a suitably located and sized planet for habitability is likely to be found in the next few years. It says nothing about whether the actual conditions on that planet (atmospheric density, presence of water, presence of photosynthesizing life (necessary for oxygen), etc.) will be habitable.

 

[jedidia]

If the prophecy is wrong, may we burn the prophet? :focus:

 

[Lucy]

That's not news, IMO. Report the planet when it's found, don't just predict when we might find one.

 

[RisingFury]

I was hoping for December 12 2012...

 

[Pyromaniac605]

Why 12/12/12? According to some guy who everyone thinks is smart who has been dead for hundreds of years chances are we should be dead by then. IMO finding the actually planet is useless unless you have the technology to get there, and I agree with Xyon this isn't news until they find the planet.

Darren

 

[RisingFury]

Why 12/12/12? According to some guy who everyone thinks is smart who has been dead for hundreds of years chances are we should be dead by then.

If by "some guy who everyone thinks is smart" you mean the guy that claimed to have an alien chip in his head so the aliens could communicate the impending doomsday, then yes, we're thinking of the same guy...
And my previous post was a joke...

IMO finding the actually planet is useless unless you have the technology to get there, and I agree with Xyon this isn't news until they find the planet.

Darren

That's like saying that finding microbial life on Mars would be useless because you can't talk to them...

 

[fireballs619]

I was hoping for December 12 2012...

I believe you mean December 21 2012. You conspiracy theory-ignorant bunch :lol:

 

[jedidia]

You know, if Palin gets elected in 2012, an encounter with Nibiru might be for the best...

 

[garyw]

Are these the same people that claimed we would be living on the Moon by 2000?

As people have already said, it isn't news until it's happened. This is a nice possibility but it's a lot of guesswork based on space assets we might have available in 2011.

 

[jedidia]

just stumbled over this blog post, while looking for something else:

http://lifeunbounded.blogspot.com/

If you ask me, this Scientometry sounds a bit like asimovs psycho-history...

 

[Izack]

If by "some guy who everyone thinks is smart" you mean the guy that claimed to have an alien chip in his head so the aliens could communicate the impending doomsday, then yes, we're thinking of the same guy...

Nostradamus??

 

[Rtyh-12]

That's not news, IMO. Report the planet when it's found, don't just predict when we might find one.

Even saying that we might find a planet that has some sort of life on it is great news.

I was hoping for December 12 2012...

:lol:

The thing is that that only says that a suitably located and sized planet for habitability is likely to be found in the next few years. It says nothing about whether the actual conditions on that planet (atmospheric density, presence of water, presence of photosynthesizing life (necessary for oxygen), etc.) will be habitable.

Thanks for ruining all our hopes.

 

[orbitingpluto]

I was hoping for December 12 2012...

:woohoo:
My birthday is December 12!

 

[Moach]

OMG! a mathematical coincidence!! we're DOOOMED!!!!!!!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!! :facepalm:


i too agree... it ain't news if is hasn't happened yet - but it would be cool if we really do find an earth-like by then :thumbup:

 

[Ghostrider]

Nostradamus??

No. Nostradamus had a chip on his shoulder, not in his head...

 

[docabn]

IMO finding the actually planet is useless unless you have the technology to get there, and I agree with Xyon this isn't news until they find the planet.

I agree it is not news until you find it, but finding it may reinforce romantic investment in space travel amongst those who otherwise would not invest (not just fincial investment but emotional and educational as well). It would also help projects like SETI.

 

[Izack]

:woohoo:
My birthday is December 12!

"Happy birthday! We got you a planet!" :lol:

Edit: "And it's not gonna hit us!"