News UARS about to fall from the sky

[N_Molson]

Statistically, you have a 70% chances that any de-orbiting object falls into an ocean, a sea or a lake... It ain't the "Blue Planet" for nothing

 

[Scav]

Well. That was exciting.

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Just for kicks I made a scenario with the last available elements for UARS from Heavens Above, about an orbit before its alleged reentry:

BEGIN_DESC
Scenario based on the last available TLE for UARS:
1 21701U 91063B   11267.10904230  .15227068  11945-4  11522-3 0  6420
2 21701 056.9313 262.1789 0003645 318.1436 041.9334 16.52554649109189
Epoch (UTC): 	02:37:01, Saturday, September 24, 2011
END_DESC

BEGIN_ENVIRONMENT
  System Sol
  Date MJD 55828.109039352
END_ENVIRONMENT

BEGIN_FOCUS
  Ship UARS
END_FOCUS

BEGIN_CAMERA
  TARGET UARS
  MODE Cockpit
  FOV 50.00
END_CAMERA

BEGIN_HUD
  TYPE Surface
END_HUD

BEGIN_MFD Left
  TYPE Map
  REF Earth
  POS 0.00 0.00
END_MFD

BEGIN_SHIPS
UARS:UARS
  STATUS Orbiting Earth
  RPOS -908452.50 2557308.86 -5917744.31
  RVEL 4234.804 6254.606 2058.937
  AROT 0.00 -0.00 0.00
  AFCMODE 7
  NAVFREQ 0 0
END
END_SHIPS

EDIT:

Running at both 10X and 100X, it skipped over Canada and Africa and went down in the Indian Ocean (79.67°E, 56.20°S) at 0509 UTC Sept. 24. I ran with and without orbit stabilisation, no effect noted in impact point.

Curiously, 0509 UTC is the upper window limit for re-entry being offered by NASA:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_page/uars/

NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. Sept. 24, 20 years and nine days after its launch on a 14-year mission that produced some of the first long-term records of chemicals in the atmosphere.

Do they have any positive indication that UARS actually went down in the Pacific?

 

[NukeET]

Just for kicks I made a scenario with the last available elements for UARS from Heavens Above, about an orbit before its alleged reentry:

EDIT:

Running at both 10X and 100X, it skipped over Canada and Africa and went down in the Indian Ocean (79.67°E, 56.20°S) at 0509 UTC Sept. 24. I ran with and without orbit stabilisation, no effect noted in impact point.

Curiously, 0509 UTC is the upper window limit for re-entry being offered by NASA:

Do they have any positive indication that UARS actually went down in the Pacific?

I ran your scenario with non-spherical gravity sources, radiation pressure, and gravity-gradient torque turned on and came up with the following for UARS final resting place:

09/24/2011 04:24:25 UTC (00:24:25 EDT) at 132.574 deg W, 38.924 deg N., about 485 nautical miles from San Francisco on a heading of about 281 degrees.

Pretty much in the middle of NASA's window and the same ocean they estimate.

Edit

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/591662main_UARS%20Map.pdf

 

[Thunder Chicken]

Just enabling non-spherical gravity gives me a similar result (130.39W, 40.70N), into the Pacific. Interesting.

---------- Post added at 09:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:21 PM ----------

I made a base config file from http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/591662main_UARS Map.pdf

BASE-V2.0
Name = UARS Likely Impact Site
Location = +219.0 +31.0
Size = 2000

Landing is within 200 miles of this point when all of the perturbation parameters are activated. Wow! It could be a coincidence, but maybe Orbiter is just that good?

 

[Urwumpe]

I doubt it - The atmosphere model of Earth isn't exactly what we currently have at Earth (depends on solar cycle), also the drag model of the vessel has a very high impact on the landing site.



Also I am hiding the debris in my basement.

 

[T.Neo]

Also I am hiding the debris in my basement.

No! You cannot do that! It is dangerous!

It might have sharp edges!! :rofl:

 

[Urwumpe]

It might have sharp edges!! :rofl:

No problem, I wrapped it in bubble foil. :lol:

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

Also I am hiding the debris in my basement.

A NASA SWAT team has been dispatched to your location. :lol:

 

[Thunder Chicken]

A NASA SWAT team has been dispatched to your location. :lol:

With thick leather gloves...lots of them.

 

[Sky Captain]

And they will be coming in
[ame="http://orbithangar.com/searchid.php?ID=5447"]XR2 SWAT[/ame]

 

[orb]

SPACE.com: NASA Pinpoints Pacific Ocean Grave of Fallen UARS Satellite

 

[Thunder Chicken]

SPACE.com: NASA Pinpoints Pacific Ocean Grave of Fallen UARS Satellite

Wow, that's about 40 miles NE of American Samoa. Did anyone there see the reentry?

 

[Shootingiron]

Can I have some links to those debris reports?

I'm North of Okotoks, but it's still in my neck of the woods.

 

[Codz]

Can I have some links to those debris reports?

I'm North of Okotoks, but it's still in my neck of the woods.

It didn't fall in Canada.

 

[Notebook]

BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15084746

N.