Tehran on fire

[SiberianTiger]

If Iran would ever to become a country open to the outer world and with an official ideology less prone to cause hostility with the Sunni, they hold all chances to become a real regional power everyone would reckon. Maybe the BRIC will turn to BRICI in that case. They have enough social, economic and technological development for that.

 

[Eagle]

If Iran would ever to become a country open to the outer world and with an official ideology less prone to cause hostility with the Sunni, they hold all chances to become a real regional power everyone would reckon. Maybe the BRIC will turn to BRICI in that case. They have enough social, economic and technological development for that.

The same would be true for many autocratic nations. Actual freedom for the Persian people and more peaceful government could catapult them into 1st world status.

I've noticed the perpetually self-interested Western media has been trying to credit somebody (other than the Iranian people) for this event. (hopefully the results will be positive, but the outlook is bleak). I've heard Obama's Cairo speech as inspiration for the action. But wasn't this pretty much the neocon democracy domino plan?(that is, democracy in Iraq influences movements in nearby nations.)

Well the crackdown continues, but its not over yet.

 

[SiberianTiger]

The same would be true for many autocratic nations. Actual freedom for the Persian people and more peaceful government could catapult them into 1st world status.

I believe that the three worlds division has been pretty much exhausted with ending of the 20th century. There are no more solid 1st (Capitalist) and 2nd (Communist) and the 3rd (the underdeveloped) serving a direct or indirect battleground for the two first. Currently, it's makes more sense to speak of the "Divisions" or "Leagues" in the sports meaning, each country belonging to a certain "League" by the level of its economic development.

With regard to this, we may historically soon see a replacement in the high and the 2nd leagues composition, possibly moving the "C" up and away from the "BRIC" (and somebody formerly in the high one taking its place). Or maybe, it will really be a time of Iran's ascension, so we have a chance for getting a "BIIR". :lol:

I've heard Obama's Cairo speech as inspiration for the action. But wasn't this pretty much the neocon democracy domino plan?(that is, democracy in Iraq influences movements in nearby nations.)

Even if you are correct, it's now like a grenade fuse that has been triggered: you have no much control over it anymore, the best thing to do is keeping clear. We all have to wait and see.

 

[simonpro]

The Persian language is Farsi, slightly different from Arabic which has vowels. It's still possible to read some Farsi with an Arabic background, I believe.

Indeed. However, the 'evidence' used by the article in the first post was in Arabic.

 

[Urwumpe]

Indeed. However, the 'evidence' used by the article in the first post was in Arabic.

Still, the 'evidence' (which is just a hypothesis) is getting more and more real evidence, the most amusing the helpless confession of the guardian council, that Ahmadinejad got only 3 million votes more in the rather Ahmadinejad critical cities, than there had been citizens.

The only way to stop these protests now, would be violence - there is no successful peaceful end for it. These people can't constructively agree on how the new government should look like, they only know what they currently don't want. As such, it has many parallels to the French revolution, which did not prevent France from becoming a monarchy (or worse) again. It is just the second step towards a stable constitution. Only god knows how many steps it will take. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have not yet lost, but also have not yet won. The things could still turn out like in China or the GDR (17th June 1953), with military crushing the protests with really brute force. The GDR did also not collapse for 35 years after violently stopping the protests. I doubt you can build a wall around Iran to lock the people inside it, so it will sure not be the same afterwards. The brain drain that will result though, will be painful. Currently Iran has a very good science system, not far behind first world nations, which enables it to do serious work, not just the copy and paste jobs of the real "rogue" nations, like NK or Lybia (in the past. Now they play nice and benevolent).

Yes, maybe I am pessimistic with my assessment, but I don't think this "revolution" will come. The protesters would also need a long-term goal to achieve after disposing the criminals and gaining the desired liberties (and they can't even agree, what liberties they want). Who will have most to win and most to lose will be the women in Iran. They had been the most focussed force in the days before the elections and are especially active now. Which I consider the key factor - the women will likely define what could come afterwards, because you can't ignore them currently. You don't need to be a women rights advocate to predict that, most of their political goals are pretty pragmatic anyway. Also, Iran is not Saudi-Arabia, the women in Iran have already a much stronger position in the political life there, as in other arabian countries.

Their definition of equality is also not really extreme: "In the years after the islamic revolution, it was possible for women to candidate for presidency, today it is not. This is not the Iran we fought for."

 

[Eagle]

ou are correct, it's now like a grenade fuse that has been triggered: you have no much control over it anymore, the best thing to do is keeping clear. We all have to wait and see.

Anyone cut down a dead tree in a forest? Sometimes its smart to have some friends tie ropes high up, so you can control more precisely which way it falls so you don't land it on something like a living tree or some part of the property. Tends to be a lot safer than just chainsawing alone. You can't influence a 20 ton tree very much but you can pull it a few feet either way.(you don't climb the tree to get ropes up there, you tie a weight to one end and throw the weight over high branches, then tie a slip knot at the ground and tighten it up.) There isn't much that foreign governments and people can do, but we can make small differences. And many governments have already stated their positions on the matter. One thing I find interesting, is that Amademajad probably would have won if they had counted the votes, but this electoral fraud may lose it all for him. At minimum, he's lost a lot of legitimacy both at home and abroad.

---------- Post added at 11:16 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:10 AM ----------

Yes, maybe I am pessimistic with my assessment,

Yeah, most of the hope I hold comes only form the fact that this protest has become this big. A weakened, more brutal, but the same regime seems the most likely outcome.