Updates ISS Progress flights updates

[orbitingpluto]

The Progress is in orbit, with the solar arrays deployed and also most of the antennas, excepting the Kurs antenna. Because of that, it will arrive at the station in two days, rather than later today.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Hmm...latest reports from the Progress controllers indicated that the 2 Kurs system antennas may have deployed after all. :shrug: They are waiting for it to get back within Russian ground stations range to confirm this.

In any case, docking is now planned on April 30th at 09:53 UTC.

 

[boogabooga]

Can Progress dock without Kurs?

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

Can Progress dock without Kurs?

Sure (been tried several times), but.....

.....it seems the problem isn't with this per newest reports, as the controllers confirmed just now. It now seems that the problem is with the Soyuz rocket - which seems to have put it off-target! Data from NORAD shows it to be in a 123 x 306 km orbit instead of the planned 193 x 238 km, which would be very problematic since Progress would not survive in that orbit for long before falling back into the atmosphere.... :uhh:

Luckily the Russians are receiving telemetry right now so maybe they can make up a plan before too late.

 

[DaveS]

Can Progress dock without Kurs?

That is a yes. Kurs is the automated rendezvous and proximity operations system on both Progress and Soyuz. Progress do have a manual control system available called TORU which lives in the ISS SM and consists of a set of hand controllers (rotation and translation) and a monitor for a cosmonaut to use. For Soyuz these controls live in the Descent Module.

---------- Post added at 11:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 AM ----------

Sure (been tried several times), but.....

.....it seems the problem isn't with this per newest reports, as the controllers confirmed just now. It now seems that the problem is with the Soyuz rocket - which seems to have put it off-target! Data from NORAD shows it to be in a 123 x 306 km orbit instead of the planned 193 x 238 km, which would be very problematic since Progress would not survive in that orbit for long before falling back into the atmosphere.... :uhh:

To give a comparison, for shuttle a stable orbit was defined as a perigee above 82-85 nautical miles or 151.864 to 157.42 km.

 

[boogabooga]

Sure (been tried several times), but.....

It now seems that the problem is with the Soyuz rocket - which seems to have put it off-target! Data from NORAD shows it to be in a 123 x 306 km orbit instead of the planned 193 x 238 km, which would be very problematic

Was it headed up or down at cut off?

Perhaps if it got to 123 km, the antenna burned a bit.

Edit: NASA TV is saying the ascent to orbit was nominal. Progress made a pass over the Russian ground station and does not seem to be receiving commands.

 

[Ripley]

...Today's launch will be the 2nd Progress mission to use the relatively new Soyuz-2.1a rocket, which provides higher orbit injection accuracy than the old Soyuz-U variant...

Makes me wonder what has happened!

 

[DaveS]

So far no joy on either commanding the Progress or the receipt of any telemetry on the ground. NASA TV live coverage will back at 7:30 am EDT (1230 UTC) for coverage of the Daily Orbit 3 pass over the Russian ground stations for the next ability to receive telemetry and commanding capability.

---------- Post added at 01:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 PM ----------

AOS with Progress M-27M and it shows the spacecraft tumbling badly, I estimate a rotational rate of approx. 50-60°/s.

---------- Post added at 02:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:54 PM ----------

And LOS, at least Kurs video LOS.

---------- Post added at 02:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:00 PM ----------

No actual data or capability to command the Progress was obtained through this pass.

---------- Post added at 02:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:03 PM ----------

Some telemetry was received although it is not detailed what information it contained. Next ground station pass is in about 1 hour, 8 minutes from now.

---------- Post added at 02:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:08 PM ----------

NASA TV coverage ending for now. Will be back again at 9 am EDT (1300 UTC).

---------- Post added at 02:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:12 PM ----------

Seems like they have moved up the resumption of live coverage on NASA TV by 30 minutes to 8:30 am EDT (1230 UTC).

---------- Post added at 02:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:27 PM ----------

Not planning for a docking on Thursday anymore, this has been relayed to the crew on ISS.

---------- Post added at 02:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:31 PM ----------

Some information on the telemetry received during the last pass included several rate sensor failure messages.

---------- Post added at 02:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:33 PM ----------

Next NASA TV update will be at the top of the hour.

 

[Kyle]

I saw that spin from the camera on the Progress, it looked like Gemini VIII. :OMG:

 

[DaveS]

I saw that spin from the camera on the Progress, it looked like Gemini VIII.

Yes, that is what it reminded me of, single axis spin.

 

[GLS]

Could the last stage have lost control in the final seconds prior to cutoff and left the Progress tumbling beyond its capabilities? That would explain the orbit and the rotation... and maybe the antennas can't open because of the centrifugal force or they were damaged if the Progress collided with the stage... speculation is fun!

---------- Post added at 02:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:58 PM ----------

I saw that spin from the camera on the Progress, it looked like Gemini VIII. :OMG:

Here's the video:

impressive indeed

 

[DaveS]

Could the last stage have lost control in the final seconds prior to cutoff and left the Progress tumbling beyond its capabilities? That would explain the orbit and the rotation... and maybe the antennas can't open because of the centrifugal force or they were damaged if the Progress collided with the stage... speculation is fun!

There's some questions regarding the actual orbit. It seems that those early orbit data was erroneous.

---------- Post added at 03:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:02 PM ----------

Standing by for the Progress to move within range of the Russian ground stations.

---------- Post added at 03:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:10 PM ----------

About 2 minutes before the Progress should move into comm range again.

---------- Post added at 03:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:15 PM ----------

No luck so far on reestablishing contact with the Progress.

---------- Post added at 03:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:25 PM ----------

No telemetry received at all during this pass. Standing by for further word.

---------- Post added at 03:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 PM ----------

No further passes over ground stations until very late tonight, so the flight control team overseeing Soyuz/Progress missions have stood down from further commanding attempts.

---------- Post added at 03:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:32 PM ----------

Russian ground station specialists have been released for the day so no more attempts to troubleshoot the Progress problems. NASA TV has ended the live coverage.

 

[Izack]

That's quite an impressive tumble! :blink:

 

[Artlav]

Here's the video

The comments under that video is just a biohazard...

On topic, this made me think about one of the Soyuz flights (nicknamed "the third suborbital", but can't quite google the number), when the upper stage started tumbling.
The crew pulled an abort, and landed near China more or less intact.

The fact that it is in orbit makes that unlikely, but the plane of the rotation seems a bit weird for a stuck-open RCS thruster or something like that.

What other failure modes can produce rotation like this?
The display is all zeroes except for absolute angles, that is kind of strange.

 

[DaveS]

What other failure modes can produce rotation like this?
The display is all zeroes except for absolute angles, that is kind of strange.

That is normal for a powered down inactive Kurs-A(ctive) system. It doesn't come into play until the spacecraft us much closer to ISS and can communicate with the Kurs-P(assive) antennas on the RS modules. You can see the same during Soyuz/Progress undockings when the Kurs system is inactive.

---------- Post added at 10:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:14 PM ----------

This is from Interfax.ru: http://www.interfax.ru/russia/439134

Moscow. April 28. INTERFAX.RU - Rotation of the cargo ship "Progress M-27M" around its axis due, most likely, a freelance separation from the third stage of the rocket "Soyuz", "Interfax" in the Russian Mission Control Center.

"Analysis of the parameters of the orbit shows that the two-stage rocket" Soyuz "worked normally. Failure occurred at the stage of the third stage. Because of this ship was in orbit above the calculated value. In addition, there is a strong spin it around its axis "- said agency.

According to him, it was an unintended separation of the third stage and the ship could cause accelerated rotation.

He noted that the upcoming night around 4:00 and at 6:00 Moscow time, attempts will be made to send TORU command ship for the neutralization of rotation.

"While the ship is stabilized around its axis, there can be no maneuvers with him, including rendezvous and docking with the ISS," - a spokesman said.

He recalled that during the day the ship has committed more than five turns around the Earth. When he was in the zone of the Russian ground radio, attempts were made to establish reliable communication with him. However, they were unsuccessful.

According to the source, with each new revolution chances of survival "Progress" are reduced.

"If the ship can not be saved, it will unmanaged and uncontrolled decayed. In this case, the fall zone of unburned debris in the atmosphere can be anywhere in the range between 52 degrees south and 52 degrees north latitude" - a spokesman said.

 

[Cosmic Penguin]

So some updates:

- It turns out that the original tracking data from NORAD is incorrect - data from half a day ago shows that Progress is actually in a 188 x 260 km x 51.65 deg. orbit, exactly matching the tracking data from the Russians; the third stage didn't dip down to 120 km either. So it looks like the Soyuz rocket did not have a big problem, and has overshot a bit just as the Russians reported - while off the promised accuracy from the Soyuz-2 series, the apogee is still within the accuracy provided by the legacy Soyuz-U so it should not have caused a problem.

- Unfortunately besides putting Progress up in orbit for a few more days, the above news didn't improve the situation by much. Two contact attempts were tried within the last few hours and no telemetry was sent back. More attempts are underway right now.

- Here's what the Kurs system TV camera shown yesterday:

P.S. I am sure that I did not jinx this spacecraft a few posts above. Must be something to do with the launch of the Kerbins yesterday..... :hmm:

 

[DaveS]

Meanwhile, there are reports that the US Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) has been tracking 44 debris fragments in the vicinity of the Progress and Soyuz 2-1A third stage: http://www.satnews.com/story.php?number=1840676647

 

[SiberianTiger]

So some updates:

- Here's what the Kurs system TV camera shown yesterday:

What's marked "Onboard propellant consumption" here is actually the nominal limit for propellant consumption put for the currently planned maneuver. It does not relate to the actual propellant reserve onboard. This has just been highlighted in the discussion at NK forum.

 

[Urwumpe]

I believe that the DUS-2 sensor is already signalling a failure, when the spacecraft is yawing beyond a limit, while this sensor is active.

But I have to refer to the Soyuz book to be sure, can't confirm this idea myself right now.

 

[N_Molson]

Engage "Killrot". :hmm:

Seriously, it feels like someone cross-plugged again two wires in a sensor or something like that... Would not be a first.