Drake Equation

TNEO you have to remember that if we find an ETciv we wont interact with them as a species. Mostly likely interactions with ET will be based on super-power to super-power dialogue... ITs like Christopher Columbus he didnt talk to the Indians on behalf of the continents of Europe, Asia and, Africa. He only talked on behalf of Spain..
 
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You raise a very good point about superpower-superpower dialogue. Also including the fact that an alien civilisation is likely to not only have one organisation and thus have superpowers of its own...

I'm sure that there would be a huge amount of international cooperation and bureaucracy when dealing with extraterrestrial organisations though.
 
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My new equation for calculating life on other bodys...
 
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O-F Staff Note: Thread cleaned up. Please this keep the discussion on the topic and leave the incendiary comments off this board.
 
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It would be helpful if you could explain this calculation for deducing the probability of life on other bodies further. :)
 
It would be helpful if you could explain this calculation for deducing the probability of life on other bodies further. :)

N^* = amount of stars in galaxy at the moment.
f^*_h= factor of habitable stars(stars that dont undergoe violent temp flux or have binary companions and stars with suitable metalicity)
f^*_v= the fraction of the stars lifetime where the hab zone is stable

n_fe= the average number of rocky bodies greater than the size of the moon divided by number of bodies greater than moon mass in system.
n_h= the average number of rocky bodies with the capability of supporting life.

f_v = factor of these planets developing life at any time
f_m =factor of planets that develop complex life at any time
f_i =factor of planets that develop intelligent life at any time
f_s =fraction of sapient species lifetime that they have the ability to communicate(radio transmission of anykind including telvision)

---------- Post added at 03:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:47 AM ----------

N^* = 500billion short scale
f^*_h= 60%
f^*_v= 75%
n_fe= 5/14 for number of bodies in our solar system with a mass higher than the moon
n_h= 1.7/5 for earth and the possibillity of life in europa or mars or venus
f_v = 70%
f_m = 50%
f_i = .0001
f_s =0.007 for the amount of time we humans been using radio tech divided by the amount of time we have been around at the least 10000years
 
I'm afraid that by the time our signals reach extraterrestrial life, our species may be extinct...
 
Yeah, because sapient species go extinct so easily...

Humans (as an example) are actually extremely resilient, in zoological or biological terms. The popular notions of humanity's fragility must come from our constant self loathing or something, I dunno...

Civilisation, especially in its current state, is pretty fragile though. We as a species could survive a civilisation collapse (brought on by war, resource problems or some sort of natural disaster), but after 100 000 years of continuous cycles of civilisation collapse? All the more reason why we need to both make our civilisation more durable and why we need to expand it. If we have not dedicated ourselves to colonising space within the next 500 years, we are officially a bunch of morons...
 
N^* = amount of stars in galaxy at the moment.
f^*_h= factor of habitable stars(stars that dont undergoe violent temp flux or have binary companions and stars with suitable metalicity)
f^*_v= the fraction of the stars lifetime where the hab zone is stable

n_fe= the average number of rocky bodies greater than the size of the moon divided by number of bodies greater than moon mass in system.
n_h= the average number of rocky bodies with the capability of supporting life.

f_v = factor of these planets developing life at any time
f_m =factor of planets that develop complex life at any time
f_i =factor of planets that develop intelligent life at any time
f_s =fraction of sapient species lifetime that they have the ability to communicate(radio transmission of anykind including telvision)

---------- Post added at 03:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:47 AM ----------

N^* = 500billion short scale
f^*_h= 60%
f^*_v= 75%
n_fe= 5/14 for number of bodies in our solar system with a mass higher than the moon
n_h= 1.7/5 for earth and the possibillity of life in europa or mars or venus
f_v = 70%
f_m = 50%
f_i = .0001
f_s =0.007 for the amount of time we humans been using radio tech divided by the amount of time we have been around at the least 10000years

f^*_h: What about star class? Don't you have to put limits on the emission spectrum to support life?

n_fe: why do you have to divide by the total number of large bodies? Why should the presence of gas giants be adverse to the development of life in a system with a given number of rocky bodies?

n_h: so you estimate that the probability of life on Europa, Mars or Venus is 0.7? That sounds pretty optimistic. What are you basing this estimate on?

f_v, f_m, f_i: I never really understood the rationale behind these estimates. As far as I remember, Drake estimated f_v to be 1, and f_i to be 0.01. Why? It seems to me that the step from no life to primitive life is an enormous one (so f_v should be small), while the step from primitive to "intelligent" life is nearly inevitable (given the right optimisation strategy, i.e. random variation and natural selection), so f_i should be high. I admit that I don't have any more hard data to underpin my gut feeling than you or Drake.

f_s: you are taking into account the fraction of time of a civilisation to communicate relative to its total lifetime, but this is meaningless without specifying an estimate of its total lifetime. Also, you don't take into account the possibility that their period of communication may have been billions of years in the past or future. So instead of a fraction relative to the civilisation's lifetime, shouldn't this be a fraction relative to the galaxy's lifetime? In this case, f_s would be more like 1e-8 to 1e-7.

What about all the other conditions that need to be fullfilled? Presence of a magnetic field to deflect harmful radiation? Presence of an oversized moon to stabilise the planet's spin? What if these are extremely unlikely conditions? Wouldn't that affect your calculations by a random number of magnitudes?
 
I have always understood Drake's equation to come from Sir Francis Drake's attempts (futile at that time) to predict the location of the next gold-laden galleon without resorting to waterboarding.
 
ONE has to remember why sapient life arrises in the first place... To do what nature cannot...:lol:
 
ONE has to remember why sapient life arrises in the first place... To do what nature cannot...:lol:

What can nature not do, what humans can do? I am pretty disappointed by the lack of ambition of our species in that context, since nature shows us everyday that we lack simply imagination.

Like the ring of 9 black holes that was discovered lately and published today.
 
What can nature not do, what humans can do? I am pretty disappointed by the lack of ambition of our species in that context, since nature shows us everyday that we lack simply imagination.

Like the ring of 9 black holes that was discovered lately and published today.

I mean evolution type nature... and what does black holes have to do with evolution?
 
I mean evolution type nature... and what does black holes have to do with evolution?

A lot. What has nothing to do with evolution? Also nature is not evolution. Evolution is process of nature.
 
When evolution needs help it makes a sapient species to do what it cant do...
 
When evolution needs help it makes a sapient species to do what it cant do...

Like what? Do you think that you got your brain just by thinking you need one? Or that humans are the only species capable to make and use tools?

Don't overestimate it, your brain is only a precision instrument if you learn to use it, and still you have the whole historic evolutionary junk in it, that reminds you that your ancestors had been once dinosaurs.

And then, there is the next big problem: Humans can't even do, what nature itself doesn't do. All human activity is simply the control over natural processes by learning how to trigger natural processes in a way to get desired results. Natural nuclear reactors also exist deep below Earth, but it takes a human brain to bring many natural phenomena together in the same spot to produce a controlled and more effective nuclear reactor that can produce electricity by making other natural phenomena that also happen in nature take place in a controlled way.

And it wouldn't be different for extraterrestrials. The only difference between a natural phenomena and a by extraterrestrials incited phenomena could be just a small detail in how it takes place.
 
Nature couldnt build a shelter or make clothes or make tools. Nature creates intelligence with the sacrifice of biological advantageous because intelligence can build and provide for itself. I dont think there would be any tents laying around if humans werent here.
 
f^*_h: What about star class? Don't you have to put limits on the emission spectrum to support life?

Yes, but to my knowledge this is synonymous with star mass and luminosity, because spectral class (largely) depends on these attributes.

You do run into problems with too high a UV flux for large stars, but this gets into the mass range where the lifetime of the star would probably be too short for advanced life to develop. There shouldn't be a problem with a minimum UV limit, some have suggested it as vital for abiogenesis, but this does not fit for certain theories such as prebiotic compounds forming in the outer reaches of solar systems, and life originating in, for example, deep ocean vents.

Fortunately though almost 20% of stars are G and K class stars, if you add M class stars (some 76.45% of all main sequence stars), you get over 96% of stars. Of course not all of those stars will have conditions conducive to complex life (or conditions conducive to life in general), but it does mean that too many stars being too large, should not be much of a problem.

Why? It seems to me that the step from no life to primitive life is an enormous one (so f_v should be small), while the step from primitive to "intelligent" life is nearly inevitable (given the right optimisation strategy, i.e. random variation and natural selection), so f_i should be high. I admit that I don't have any more hard data to underpin my gut feeling than you or Drake.

I wouldn't call abiogenesis improbable; not only does it appear that life formed relatively early in the Earth's history (indicating that it forms readily in suitable environments), but it has been theorised (and in limited cases, observed) that not only are prebiotic compounds common, but the conditions required for abiogenesis might also be quite common.

The step from primative to sapient life wasn't inevitable for most of the Earth's history, and it isn't inevitable for most of the species that do or have existed. Life has no destiny to evolve into sapient organisms; sapience is only one adaptation for survival out of many, it worked for us but we're clearly in the minority.

What about all the other conditions that need to be fullfilled? Presence of a magnetic field to deflect harmful radiation? Presence of an oversized moon to stabilise the planet's spin? What if these are extremely unlikely conditions? Wouldn't that affect your calculations by a random number of magnitudes?

If your atmosphere is stable without a magnetic field, you don't really need a magnetic field. You get more radiation on the surface but life should be able to cope with only the shielding provided by the atmosphere, after all, the magnetosphere has weakened many times in the Earth's history, in periods during which the polarity of the magnetic field has flipped. Nevertheless the presence of a magnetic field would be quite likely if the planet in question had a fluid core and a relatively fast rotation rate (traits that are also more-or-less required for a planet to harbour complex life).

As for a large moon stabilising rotation, is this really needed? Do all planets spin off axis if they are moonless? I know Mars goes through cycles which give it very high axial tilt for part of the cycle, but I thought this was (in part, at least) caused by the asymmetry of the gigantic Tharsis highlands.

Does Venus experience such severe wobbling?

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you have the whole historic evolutionary junk in it, that reminds you that your ancestors had been once dinosaurs.

Urwumpe, your knowledge is almost always beyond my own, but unfortunately I have to say that here You Failed Biology Forever. :P

Human ancestors were never close to those of dinosaurs probably since the first amniotes, a better example might be a Cynodont, a group of advanced therapsids (which are themselves group of synapsids, which includes mammals and their mammal-like (extinct) relatives):

Cynognathus_BW.jpg


Synapsids have a single pair of temporal fenestrae (holes behind the orbit that are used to anchor the jaw muscles), whereas dinosaurs (and all living sauropsids (reptiles)- save for chelonians) are diapsids; i.e. they have two pairs of temporal fenestrae.

Turtles and tortoises are anapsids, i.e., they have no temporal fenestrae. A substantial group of extinct reptiles are placed into this group, and primitive amniotes (i.e. the ancestors of synapsids and diapsids) also lacked temporal fenestrae. However it has been theorised that chelonians are diapsids which have lost their temporal fenestrae over time, and are only distantly related to the anapsid reptiles of times past.
 
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Nature couldnt build a shelter or make clothes or make tools. Nature creates intelligence with the sacrifice of biological advantageous because intelligence can build and provide for itself. I dont think there would be any tents laying around if humans werent here.

Sure on that? What about caves or fur? Maybe nature did not yet build a space suit, but will you bet on it being not possible?

Intelligence alone is no self-purpose. Thinking you are no longer hungry doesn't stop you from starving. That tools can replace teeth is sure an advantage, but it is not a special advantage. A predator brain can use its intelligence also simply for tactics. Also a brain is no sacrifice. You did never intentionally pay a price for it. You got one for free, maybe even for a purpose, that nobody really understands, but still, you have a instantly lost all the rest. Your brain just got bigger the more use you found for it, while the rest of your body was optimized for having a brain that made life easier.
 
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