Launch News (FAILURE) Progress M-12M, Soyuz-U, August 24, 2011

[N_Molson]

To further the investigation into the accident, Russian officials have been trying to recover debris from the crash in the mountains of the Altai region of Siberia, where it fell. So far, only one Mi-8 helicopter belonging to the local Emergencies Ministry has been put to the task, but more will soon take up the search, according to Itar-Tass.

“The number of aircraft will be increased,” Alexander Puzanov, head of the Centre for Monitoring Carrier Rocket Debris Fallout Area in Siberia, told Itar-Tass. “This will allow us to enlarge the search area. We will use all aircraft available in the region.”

"...all aircraft available in the region..." uhh... 1 Mi-8 ? :lol:

Searching wrecked and burned rocket parts in the Altaï seems worse than searching a needle in a haystack. Can possibly a gas generator or any identifiable mechanic device survive the reentry of the second stage (well, it's true that the rocket did not reach it's full speed) ?

 

[Wishbone]

To fly radiological recon at Fukushima, aircraft were sent from 1000's miles away, and the equipment was delivered from Moscow. It ain't the Soviet Union.

Re: debris - many things may survive, but am afraid the search effort is not on par with the Columbia investigation. It will take a whole lot of time.

 

[SiberianTiger]

Following a discussion at NK forum, here, finally, is what's most likely a picture of the dissolving Progress' contrail:

With enhanced contrast and altered saturation:

The picture was taken on August 24th, from 51.415165N, 86.496147E (Ayryk heights in Altai) at 2011:08:24 17:15:21 Moscow time. The man who took it was inside his tent when he heard an explosion-like sound and a rumble resembling a jet engine's sound, seemingly disappearing in the distance. After few minutes, when he went out of his tent, he photographed a cloud with outstanding look. He briefly memorized his own situation and direction of the shot, but gave it no much importance, because a rocket flying by is commonplace in that land.

According to him, the approximate direction to the cloud from his position was like:

NK forum users who analyzed the presented data assumed that debris fallout ellipse might be like this area:

Another user, who is claiming to me a member of the search team working on the spot, gave his conclusion on this:

Thanks for the info, it was delivered to us immediately. The luminous cloud that you saw and photographed is a layer of ionized gas at an altitude of 30-40 km, illuminated by the setting sun. Such clouds are always generated by falling objects surrounded by plasma formations. The cloud was also observed with a cordon Kokshi (Teletskoye Lake), but in the South-Western direction. A glowing object (usually falling fragments of rockets emit light down to heights of 18-20 km) was observed in the upper flow of the Pyzhi river, where also a roar was audible (ie, it was still flying at supersonic speed). In the southern part of Lake Teletskoye nobody saw anything but people there heard only a distant rumble from the west, but that was mistaken for a sound of thunderstorm and was not paid much attention. Flying across the lake, if one took place, was already in the subsonic. Most likely, these were the remnants of Stage 3's engine. Searching for them in the mountain taiga is an unpromising activity. Zones of bald mountains along the assumed disposal track was already searched. That's all.

 

[garyw]

To further the investigation into the accident, Russian officials have been trying to recover debris from the crash in the mountains of the Altai region of Siberia, where it fell. So far, only one Mi-8 helicopter belonging to the local Emergencies Ministry has been put to the task, but more will soon take up the search, according to Itar-Tass.

How high up in the mountains is this debris field? Helicopters are going to have a difficult time depending on the altitude and the shape of the mountains as mountains can often create their own micro-climate around large peaks. I don't envy anyone flying in those conditions.

 

[SiberianTiger]

How high up in the mountains is this debris field? Helicopters are going to have a difficult time depending on the altitude and the shape of the mountains as mountains can often create their own micro-climate around large peaks. I don't envy anyone flying in those conditions.

Up to 3000 metres. Must be hard to find scattered bucket-size metal pieces in such places:

 

[N_Molson]

Wow... Those deep canyons with rapid torrents in high mountains covered by forests are probably the worst place to search debris ! :blink:

That's beautiful natural landscape, however.

 

[Wishbone]

It is disappointing (to say the least) that the commission is allegedly going to regard the failure as "random"...

 

[Tacolev]

Indeed it is most precisely worrying because the reason for the failure was unlikely to be any faulty engineering but rather faulty quality control from an aging work-force that is not being replenished.

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

It is disappointing (to say the least) that the commission is allegedly going to regard the failure as "random"...

I don't think NASA are going to be satisfied with that conclusion.

 

[Arrowstar]

It is disappointing (to say the least) that the commission is allegedly going to regard the failure as "random"...

Nothing is "random" in this sense: the failure described has a cause and it is highly irresponsible to ignore the opportunity to fully understand that cause. This is going to come back and bite someone.

 

[C3PO]

I don't think NASA are going to be satisfied with that conclusion.

Do they have a choice?

It's either accept the russian decision, or stay on terra firma.

 

[Orbinaut Pete]

Do they have a choice?

It's either accept the russian decision, or stay on terra firma.

I heard NASA ISS Program Manager Mike Suffredini say at a press conference that if NASA aren't 100% happy with the Russian decision and have complete confidence in the Soyuz booster, then they won't put NASA astronauts on the Soyuz.

But, as you say, I don't know whether they'd actually go that far - the political repercussions of not flying US astronauts on the ISS would be immense.

 

[C3PO]

I heard NASA ISS Program Manager Mike Suffredini say at a press conference that if NASA aren't 100% happy with the Russian decision and have complete confidence in the Soyuz booster, then they won't put NASA astronauts on the Soyuz.

Unless someone defines "100% happy" that statement doesn't mean very much.

I can't see what NASA can do about this, given the way Soyuz was "certified".
http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2011/01/07/certifying-soyuz/

PS: NASA didn't stop flying on Soyuz when it had multiple failures in separation during reentry. Why is this so much different?

 

[SiberianTiger]

http://www.federalspace.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=17835

Still no English version of this message, so here's a refined Google translation:

Report of the Interdepartmental State Commission
:: 08/09/2011

Interdepartmental Commission for the launch of the cargo spacecraft "Progress M-12M" under the supervision of the Director of the State Scientific Center, Federal State Unitary Enterprise "Research Center named after M.V. Keldysh," Academician A.S. Koroteev completed its work, which revealed the reasons for the accident with LV "Soyuz-U" on August 24, 2011.

As a result of organizational and technical measures, the Commission found that the preparation of parts, systems of technical complex and launch site and launch of "Soyuz-U" were carried out in accordance with operational documentation.

The lift-off and flight of the first and second stages of the launch vehicle took place normally, the control system ensured sustained flight of a rocket along the desired path. Separation of the first two stages went well for the standard scheme at the estimated time without any problems.

Having analyzed the behavior of the parameters characterizing the operation of the propulsion system of the third stage, and telemetry data analysis' results it was concluded that consumption of fuel in the gas generator became reduced due to contamination of the feed tract. This led to a breach of working conditions and reduction of the engine's working parameters. It therefore was shut down by "Emergency engine shutdown" command.

The Commission members concluded that this happened due to a random manufacturing defect. However, a decision to regard its occurrence as a single event, should be taken only after cross-checking and follow-up of a special program to inspect the already manufactured propulsion units.

The Commission recommended to develop and adopt a coherent program to control production of this type of engine and give opinion on the possibility of using each of them for other purposes.

The Commission proposed to develop and implement additional measures to control the status of units of new engines in their design and manufacturing, including install CCTV in the workplace in the final assembly shops.

Following the conclusions, of the Head of Russian Federal Space Agency requested a timetable for improvements and determination of readiness of "Soyuz" launch vehicles for launching, based on which future launches of spacecraft, including manned ones, will be planned.


Russian Space Agency PAO

 

[SiberianTiger]

The vertical yellow pipe like one shown on the picture, got somehow clogged, and that put 150 trillion worth space station and, speaking generally, prospects of human exploration of space, to risk:

 

[agentgonzo]

Manufacturing flaw caused turbine to fail:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/09/08/international/i123801D96.DTL

 

[Wishbone]

/me wants the folks from the CIS International Aviation Committee (aircraft incident investigation agency) to take part in the investigation. Well, I could also buy rosy specs while I'm at it... It would be nice to have NASA put pressure on Roskosmos, as well, but it is not a solution.

 

[SiberianTiger]

/me wants the folks from the CIS International Aviation Committee (aircraft incident investigation agency) to take part in the investigation.

What's the point? You've been said: "it's the pipe". The IAC has no authority over aircraft part producers anyway.

 

[T.Neo]

and that put 150 trillion worth space station

150 trillion? I hope you meant billion at least, the ISS would not have cost that much even if you converted its cost to Rupees...

 

[N_Molson]

I guess that the fuel flow monitoring probes are pretty sensitive, especially because it is a manned program and that a safe controlled shutdown is much better than a wild fire and explosion (at this point of the flight, the LES is already jettisonned I think). A few hair in the fuel tank could probably have caused this...

From what I can read above, I'd say : proceed the two unmanned flights, and if everything is OK, go flight.