Evacuating Earth
- Thread starter TSPenguin
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More than half of the costs of current spacecraft launches have absolutely nothing to do with production costs or with mission control/communications. The biggest money-eater is the need to check and re-check EVERY LAST NUT AND BOLT AND DIODE--the Shuttle for example gets almost entirely disassembled and reassembled for every mission. If most components could be inspected in place and replaced quickly, as on commercial aircraft, then things would go a lot cheaper and faster--even non-reusable spacecraft get triple-redundant re-checking of every component before they can launch.
That said, if it really were a situation of "get into space or die", then people might be willing to accept a higher failure rate (as high as a few percent perhaps) if it means that they can get a seat that they wouldn't get under more stringent safety requirements. Staying on Earth = 100% chance of dying, so many people might risk possible death to escape from certain death.
That said, if it really were a situation of "get into space or die", then people might be willing to accept a higher failure rate (as high as a few percent perhaps) if it means that they can get a seat that they wouldn't get under more stringent safety requirements. Staying on Earth = 100% chance of dying, so many people might risk possible death to escape from certain death.
tblaxland
O-F Administrator
Um, I hate to mention the elephant in the room, but...
If an alien civilisation has sufficiently advanced technology and morals to come and warn us about the destruction of Earth, wouldn't it seem out of character to just sit up in LEO laughing at our attempts to evacuate to their mega-ship with comparatively primitive technology?
If an alien civilisation has sufficiently advanced technology and morals to come and warn us about the destruction of Earth, wouldn't it seem out of character to just sit up in LEO laughing at our attempts to evacuate to their mega-ship with comparatively primitive technology?
Artlav
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The problem is that after you take all the experts and professionals in their respective fields and samples of different cultures, there still going to be a lot of tickets left. How do you choose the rest?
How will you evaluate human beings? Is there some universal scale?
For example, they could be cold and fragile space-dwellers, like Larry Niven's outsiders - having a lot of interstellar technology, but never faced with problems of getting in or out of a gravity well.
Why assume the worst?
Maybe they are just the guilty party - some experiment or arms race episode went wrong, causing a nearby star to go big supernova, with the wave-front 10 years away from Earth and enough power to broil the planet.
Now it's a matter of public relation stunt to evacuate all life from the vicinity of disaster area. And since their attempts are PR, they are unwilling to give us any technology, that we, being an aggressive species, may one day use against them.
tblaxland
O-F Administrator
James.Denholm
Addon ponderer
As far as the convincing every human on Earth, it's easy. Fly up to the aliens, and ask them to do as the Vorgon guys from the Hitch-Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy did (but only in the novel!):
Getting Every Human On Earth To Believe That The Aliens Are Here To Save Them: For Dummies (A Guide For The Rest Of Us!)
Also known as: GEHOETBTTAAHTSTFDAGFTROU (Pronounced: The Guide)
To be narrated over the top of "The Entertainer"
Step 1: Grab a microphone that has a lot of feed-back, and is inconvieniently located on the roof of you're millions-of-stories tall bridge (as in, control room).
Step 2: Speak (QUIETLY! Remember the feed-back) into the microphone, telling the humans of Earth of their impending doom. Don't worry, they'll all hear it, 'cause the sound will be amplified off every window, trash-can lid, and so on.
Step 3: Watch panic unfold (except for that woman in the movie who just shakes her head and continues reading).
Step 4: When the panic dies down (1 to 2 hours), explain that this won't happen for a couple of years, and that you're here to help.
Step 5: Quickly say that you aren't Jesus, The Headless Horseman or any of that other religious nonsense, before the Pope beats you to it. If he says anything, you may as well leave.
Step 6: If he hasn't already, God, Zeus, Mohammed and the rest will be knocking on you're door, asking if they get a seat on you're super-awesome ship. Let 'em in or leave 'em, it's you're choice.
Step 7: Wait for the humans to come to you. Remember to have an equatorial orbit!
EDIT: On second thoughts, why would anyone save us? We would probably blow up the ship on the way to Earth 2.0, and if we didn't then we would probably stuff up Earth 2.0 like we did 1.0.
Getting Every Human On Earth To Believe That The Aliens Are Here To Save Them: For Dummies (A Guide For The Rest Of Us!)
Also known as: GEHOETBTTAAHTSTFDAGFTROU (Pronounced: The Guide)
To be narrated over the top of "The Entertainer"
Step 1: Grab a microphone that has a lot of feed-back, and is inconvieniently located on the roof of you're millions-of-stories tall bridge (as in, control room).
Step 2: Speak (QUIETLY! Remember the feed-back) into the microphone, telling the humans of Earth of their impending doom. Don't worry, they'll all hear it, 'cause the sound will be amplified off every window, trash-can lid, and so on.
Step 3: Watch panic unfold (except for that woman in the movie who just shakes her head and continues reading).
Step 4: When the panic dies down (1 to 2 hours), explain that this won't happen for a couple of years, and that you're here to help.
Step 5: Quickly say that you aren't Jesus, The Headless Horseman or any of that other religious nonsense, before the Pope beats you to it. If he says anything, you may as well leave.
Step 6: If he hasn't already, God, Zeus, Mohammed and the rest will be knocking on you're door, asking if they get a seat on you're super-awesome ship. Let 'em in or leave 'em, it's you're choice.
Step 7: Wait for the humans to come to you. Remember to have an equatorial orbit!
EDIT: On second thoughts, why would anyone save us? We would probably blow up the ship on the way to Earth 2.0, and if we didn't then we would probably stuff up Earth 2.0 like we did 1.0.
tl8
Addon Developer
What makes you think that I'm trying to warn you of your impending doom, err I'll get back to you, My wife is calling for me...
Honey what is the time in Sirius? I want to teleport a casserole to Mum.
PS Please leave your towels at home.
jedidia
shoemaker without legs
You know, the whole procedure reminds me somewhat of Noah... except you don't have the backdraw of building a ship in the desert. :lol:
GregBurch
Addon Developer
The discussion of the "realisticness" of the proposed scenario is pretty funny: It is, after all, pretty hard to imagine an intelligent entity with sufficient technology to cross the distance between the stars being unable to provide a lift for the last few hundred kilometers of distance and few thousand km/h of velocity for humans it wanted to save from destruction.
But the basic technical and social problem is one I've actually spent a LOT of time thinking about over the last 20 years -- i.e. how to get a significant number of bio-humans off Earth in a sustainable way in the relatively near future (i.e. within the next 50 years) and relatively quickly (i.e. within a few years). This is because I think there are many, many scenarios in which the problems would become realistically important -- even acute. This planet might well become dangerously inhospitable to humans -- or at least humans like me -- over that time period, and having a "back door" would be nice ...
But the basic technical and social problem is one I've actually spent a LOT of time thinking about over the last 20 years -- i.e. how to get a significant number of bio-humans off Earth in a sustainable way in the relatively near future (i.e. within the next 50 years) and relatively quickly (i.e. within a few years). This is because I think there are many, many scenarios in which the problems would become realistically important -- even acute. This planet might well become dangerously inhospitable to humans -- or at least humans like me -- over that time period, and having a "back door" would be nice ...
TSPenguin
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I just got back from a meeting with those aliens. Acording to them, they won't descend on the planet because they don't believe in gravity. Has something to do with their religion :blink:
Ghostrider
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Tell them about "intelligent falling", that should do the trick.
Ghostrider
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That's not a problem, everybody knows aliens go around in groups of two. One always tells the truth, the other always lies...
So what questions would you have to ask the aliens to determine which alien is the one that is telling the truth and which one is always lying?:dry:
Edit: you can only ask 1 question.
Ghostrider
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Well, you ask one what the other would answer if I asked him who is the liar.
Although it didn't really work for Sarah...
Although it didn't really work for Sarah...
James.Denholm
Addon ponderer
I don't know, if the fate of all humanity rested on one question...
I'd ask them why my family just can't make Anzac biscuits the way they're supposed to be made. Or maybe how to make the perfect cake...
"Look at me still talking when there's science to do..."
I'd ask them why my family just can't make Anzac biscuits the way they're supposed to be made. Or maybe how to make the perfect cake...
"Look at me still talking when there's science to do..."
joiz
New member
anybody whos ever posted on orbiter forum should go, of course!
It can be done.
The answer would be D and it would be around 24,000 thousand people with room for growth. They could live comfortable and reproduce while making there way to the other planet. If the people were frozen such as cryogenic and possibly brought back you could get way more than this. You could pack the spacecraft as close as the systems would allow for it. Everyone would be able to see a new planet without a day of aging lost.
The answer would be D and it would be around 24,000 thousand people with room for growth. They could live comfortable and reproduce while making there way to the other planet. If the people were frozen such as cryogenic and possibly brought back you could get way more than this. You could pack the spacecraft as close as the systems would allow for it. Everyone would be able to see a new planet without a day of aging lost.
And where did you get these numbers from?
Do you realise the difficulty in getting large numbers of people just to LEO? It is incredibly difficult, and probably impossible unless leaps and bounds were made in launch economics.
garyscott
New member
I couldn't possible give a meaningful answer to the original question really, but i believe that the clock ticking toward absolute destruction could be the catalyst for incredible growth in propulsive technologies and ship / systems design. It no longer would be a case of "its too expensive to do, or research", money shouldn't even be a factor in it.
It should be a case of doing "it" because we can, not being stifled by money. If a gun is to your head, and pressure is on the trigger, you would not worry about whether you would have enough cash to do the job, you would just do it.
Money - is the greatest disease that our species suffers from. It stifles innovation, it governs our lives, it divides peoples, it causes wars, people die for it, lie for it, and like a drug, some will do ANYTHING for it. . .
If we did not have - need - live by money, if we did things because we can, because its betters us as a whole, for the benefit of us as a species, can you imagine where we might be now?? . . . .
. . . a lot further down the road to the stars than we are now i bet . . .
It should be a case of doing "it" because we can, not being stifled by money. If a gun is to your head, and pressure is on the trigger, you would not worry about whether you would have enough cash to do the job, you would just do it.
Money - is the greatest disease that our species suffers from. It stifles innovation, it governs our lives, it divides peoples, it causes wars, people die for it, lie for it, and like a drug, some will do ANYTHING for it. . .
If we did not have - need - live by money, if we did things because we can, because its betters us as a whole, for the benefit of us as a species, can you imagine where we might be now?? . . . .
. . . a lot further down the road to the stars than we are now i bet . . .
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