Evacuating Earth

[TSPenguin]

For this hypothetical scenario let's assume an alien race came and warned us about the imminent destruction of earth. They are kind enough to bring everyone to another suitable planet for us (in another solar system), but only those we can bring to a LEO where they will board the alien mega vessel.
Let's further assume this vessel is on a 300x300 km orbit around earth.
How many could we save and by what means if we had:

• 10 years
• 25 years
• 50 years
• 100 years

EDIT: And by what means? Existing tech? Building new ships, if yes, what kind?

 

[Chipstone306]

WOW tuff question! I would throw a ballpark number of at least 200000 in ten years

 

[bujin]

A hyperspace by-pass being built, huh?

 

[TSPenguin]

A hyperspace by-pass being built, huh?

Something like that :rofl:

WOW tuff question! I would throw a ballpark number of at least 200000 in ten years

Nice guess. How would you think we do it? Using shuttles and soyuz would require much more to be built.

 

[martins]

Hm, if you had 100 years between the delivery of the message and actual destruction, then nearly everybody alive today would be dead by the time desaster strikes, so there is no real reason for us to be ferried to the rescue ship. Our only worry would be our children born closer to the date. But if we were sufficiently concerend, we could make a decision not to have children.

If we think that the survival of the human race would be desirable, then it would probably be sufficient to rescue a few thousand individuals. They could be transported as frozen embryos (provided that we or the aliens could develop the technology to bring them to gestation ex-utero, which is feasible within 100 years), so they could probably be shipped into orbit with a single shuttle mission.

 

[Artlav]

Using shuttles and soyuz would require much more to be built.

Using shuttles and soyuz will be like trying to evacuate America to Europe on rowboats across atlantic.
Let's look on the 10 years case as the most interesting.

Whether or not the politics will be forgotten, the environmentalists will be send to hell for sure, so in a simple case the Orion ship could be built (the old bang-bang version). It's quite within modern engineering, and the bombs are already here.

Depending on the screenwriter, the politics will either be forgotten, with several large ships built internationally, or become sharpened, with several blocks building their own vessels, nuking each other cities for free (just a dud from launch, sorry).
In a decade, some 100'000's of people could be lifted with earnest effort.

In a situation like this and international unification, which is one of likely scenarios, the money and safety limits will be out of question, every plausible idea of a spaceship will be utilized, regardless of it's environmental impact and cost, so some more powerful solutions may come up, allowing millions to escape. In best case scenario, aliens can give some advice, even though, they sound like they are space-dvellers, unaccustomed and incapable of getting to the bottom of a gravity well.

If the politics go cross, then the aliens will probably leave, taking ISS crew and some private spaceplanes that succeed in reaching orbit along, leaving this primitive-minded species behind to chew on itself. If they are not so righteous, then there will be much less survivors, probably a war down on Earth, and a seed of war up on the starship. Hell knows what could we get down to - all the way to threaten to blow the starship up if the opposite party won't stop building their own vessel and pay for that one's tickets instead.

Who is going up?
It will probably be like the Deep Impact movie depiction - a pre-selected set of finest knowledge and genes, with a second half of lottery winners and rich people.
And add to that everyone, who could build his own spaceship, which some big corporations and billionaries have all the resources to do.

 

[Bj]

but how could choose who is going to go? noone will choose who will choose who is going. If every one works together peacfully and graciously, then a large number will get off the planet, still leaving many behind. However, if everyone fights over the seats, it is every man for themselves. If this happens, then the very ships will be torn down. In which case mankind might as well send every nuke they have at the aliens and hope that they dont take revenge.

 

[dutchpirate]

Very impressive suggestions and thoughts about different scenarios. As for me, I'm going to help the guy in the robes and long beard with his ship, and then I'll bed down with the animals.

 

[TSPenguin]

I'll reply to all the great answers later.
In the meantime I'd like to throw in the orbital elevator. Or at least 'kinda' similar systems.

Also this opportunity would only be granted to living humans. Martin is completely right if it was solely about the survival of the race, but to make this a little more fun it is about saving the people that make up this race

 

[Thunder Chicken]

A hyperspace by-pass being built, huh?

Of course, you could just go to the pub, down a few beers (quickly), and listen to the best sound system on Earth...

 

[jedidia]

by what means? Existing tech?

sure, everyone's got a towel these days

honestly, if this came to pass, I think it would become a self-fullfilling prophecy. Because when mankind hears this, it's going to destroy the planet all by itself, I'm afraid.

As immoral as I would consider it, I still think the only option for the survival as a race would be to keep the whole buisness a secret and try to send a thousand people up to make a new start elsewhere. As soon as they launch, however, the world will know and there will be hysteria, riots, wars...

I think the toughest problem with the public would not even be politics. We're talking about the end of the world here, which is religious buisness.

Let's see: We'll have christian sects that will claim the aliens are the second comming. We will have christian fundamentalists who will claim the aliens are the antichrist. We will have muslim sects who will probably say it is the coming of the Mahdi, and Muslim fundamentalists who might think it is the sign of judgement day. According to mythology and mentality of such groups, they will seek to destroy their enemies to please god so shortly before the end. And we're only talking about the two biggest religions here, there are hundreds more.

So, if this case came to happen, I think I would just sit on a hilltop, watching the sunset while I'm smoking my pipe, which won't help the situation either. I don't see any way out...

 

[GregBurch]

IF -- and it's a VERY BIG "if" -- the warning were 100% reliable and could be demonstrated to be so to even the most thick-headed person (i.e. the majority of humans), then I think you could get at least hundreds of thousands off in even ten years. Far more could be evacuated in longer time periods.

I say this because only a microscopically small part of the human gross product is devoted to space technology now. Were the hypothetical threat demonstrated to be very real, then presumably far greater resources could and would be devoted to the task of building "ark lifters" for and "ark habitats" to hold those awaiting rescue. This would be true even though huge resources would have to be devoted to defending the effort from the destructive efforts of those who would try to destroy it out of bitterness at being left behind, or just by the billions of crazy people in the world.

But the truth is, of course, that it would be much more probable that, regardless of the weight of evidence supporting the warning, the majority of humans would reject the warning. Therefore, the kind of "species-wide" effort that could get significant numbers of people off earth would fail. Therefore, it would be available only to a very, very small number of people -- perhaps stockholders of SpaceX and Bigelow

As for Martin's comment about who would be left alive in 100 years, I beg to differ. Assuming that the advance of science and medical techniques is not thwarted by a general collapse of civilization over that period (a very, very real threat), then very young people alive today can expect to have biological lifespans far in excess of 100 years.

Beyond that, saving as many people in these scenarios as possible would be a good thing in and of itself. That, of course, begs the question of selecting who would be able to board the "life boats."

GB, THHotA

 

[Xantcha]

zero

 

[TSPenguin]

Hm, if you had 100 years between the delivery of the message and actual destruction, then nearly everybody alive today would be dead by the time desaster strikes, so there is no real reason for us to be ferried to the rescue ship. Our only worry would be our children born closer to the date. But if we were sufficiently concerend, we could make a decision not to have children.

Did I mention the alien mega vessel waiting in orbit? It would be large enough for us to live "normal" lives in. Fall in love, have babies, start cults etc.

If we think that the survival of the human race would be desirable, then it would probably be sufficient to rescue a few thousand individuals. They could be transported as frozen embryos (provided that we or the aliens could develop the technology to bring them to gestation ex-utero, which is feasible within 100 years), so they could probably be shipped into orbit with a single shuttle mission.

Very feasable. But how do you think those humans would be if they where raised by aliens? I doubt there would much of our culture (and all it's diversity) survive. Sure, we could send some adult teachers or computer programs etc. to make them as human as we are, but still it remeains a very sad vision.

Using shuttles and soyuz will be like trying to evacuate America to Europe on rowboats across atlantic.

At least it would be great site to look upon

Let's look on the 10 years case as the most interesting.

Whether or not the politics will be forgotten, the environmentalists will be send to hell for sure, so in a simple case the Orion ship could be built (the old bang-bang version). It's quite within modern engineering, and the bombs are already here.

Depending on the screenwriter, the politics will either be forgotten, with several large ships built internationally, or become sharpened, with several blocks building their own vessels, nuking each other cities for free (just a dud from launch, sorry).
In a decade, some 100'000's of people could be lifted with earnest effort.

In a situation like this and international unification, which is one of likely scenarios, the money and safety limits will be out of question, every plausible idea of a spaceship will be utilized, regardless of it's environmental impact and cost, so some more powerful solutions may come up, allowing millions to escape. In best case scenario, aliens can give some advice, even though, they sound like they are space-dvellers, unaccustomed and incapable of getting to the bottom of a gravity well.

Using Orion technology will have to be a cornerstone of our efforts. It is easy and we already have the fuel. And why should we leave all those nukes behind? Those pretty strange aliens (yeah, they are hardcore creepy dudes) would show us all 5 midle fingers if we had a few thousand nukes in out luggage

sure, everyone's got a towel these days

honestly, if this came to pass, I think it would become a self-fullfilling prophecy. Because when mankind hears this, it's going to destroy the planet all by itself, I'm afraid.

As immoral as I would consider it, I still think the only option for the survival as a race would be to keep the whole buisness a secret and try to send a thousand people up to make a new start elsewhere. As soon as they launch, however, the world will know and there will be hysteria, riots, wars...

I think the toughest problem with the public would not even be politics. We're talking about the end of the world here, which is religious buisness.

Let's see: We'll have christian sects that will claim the aliens are the second comming. We will have christian fundamentalists who will claim the aliens are the antichrist. We will have muslim sects who will probably say it is the coming of the Mahdi, and Muslim fundamentalists who might think it is the sign of judgement day. According to mythology and mentality of such groups, they will seek to destroy their enemies to please god so shortly before the end. And we're only talking about the two biggest religions here, there are hundreds more.

So, if this case came to happen, I think I would just sit on a hilltop, watching the sunset while I'm smoking my pipe, which won't help the situation either. I don't see any way out...

but how could choose who is going to go? noone will choose who will choose who is going. If every one works together peacfully and graciously, then a large number will get off the planet, still leaving many behind. However, if everyone fights over the seats, it is every man for themselves. If this happens, then the very ships will be torn down. In which case mankind might as well send every nuke they have at the aliens and hope that they dont take revenge.

If the politics go cross, then the aliens will probably leave, taking ISS crew and some private spaceplanes that succeed in reaching orbit along, leaving this primitive-minded species behind to chew on itself. If they are not so righteous, then there will be much less survivors, probably a war down on Earth, and a seed of war up on the starship. Hell knows what could we get down to - all the way to threaten to blow the starship up if the opposite party won't stop building their own vessel and pay for that one's tickets instead.

I agree with you all. Would be great is the aliens would use their "common sense ray" on us.

Who is going up?
It will probably be like the Deep Impact movie depiction - a pre-selected set of finest knowledge and genes, with a second half of lottery winners and rich people.
And add to that everyone, who could build his own spaceship, which some big corporations and billionaries have all the resources to do.

This would be the way to go. But let's not do the lottery thing. With or without it, there will be mayhem among those not on the list. Making a list based upon the information we have about the trip and the new home is the most logical thing to do.

[...] This would be true even though huge resources would have to be devoted to defending the effort from the destructive efforts of those who would try to destroy it out of bitterness at being left behind, or just by the billions of crazy people in the world.

But the truth is, of course, that it would be much more probable that, regardless of the weight of evidence supporting the warning, the majority of humans would reject the warning. Therefore, the kind of "species-wide" effort that could get significant numbers of people off earth would fail. Therefore, it would be available only to a very, very small number of people -- perhaps stockholders of SpaceX and Bigelow

Humans have always had the tendency to destroy each other... sad, isn't it?!

zero

Write at least a complete sentence or have your post deleted!

 

[Ghostrider]

very young people alive today can expect to have biological lifespans far in excess of 100 years.

No they won't. They'll be all gloomy and doomy on MySpace and cutting themselves with blunt scissors.

 

[Kunsa]

It would be total anarchy for 10 solid years.
wars breaking out everywhere.
our society would break down and it would become every man for themselves.

people would be creating their own "spaceship" and would be blowing themselves up
in their backyards trying to get to space.

Not sure if rich people would get much preference as "buying a pass" would have no meaning because money would no longer be worth anything.

edit: cant remember the name of the company in the US thats currently trying to build a space elevator but if successful, it would represent quite a few people

 

[Ghostrider]

people would be creating their own "spaceship" and would be blowing themselves up
in their backyards trying to get to space.

You know, that sounds cool.

Not sure if rich people would get much preference as "buying a pass" would have no meaning because money would no longer be worth anything.

On the contrary, it would mean more. Rich people would pool their fortunes together and fund privately-build spacecraft on the condition that they get a seat.

 

[razgriz31m]

lets just use a nuke...and the one survives is lucky

 

[Xantcha]

Ok, may be like twenty people if there already was some planned mission that could be reorganized. But if not - then it's 0. And I guess by the time aliens will appear even China will get tired of manned spaceflight.
Of course those few dozens of people will get to orbit if aliens will still be wanting to continue on thei plan. The first thing that humaniy will do is start nuking the damn ship. If/when it fails people will continue on nuking each other, robbing neighbours and otherwise celebrating happy doomsday. Tough environment to launch even a single mission.

 

[mrspacely]

these alien 'rescuers' seem more like hungry, lazy space privateers looking for a source of carbon bloodbags to feast on!

but before we knew that we'd pull off getting millions into space each year (rate of 1000 per hour gives 8,640,000 per year). if we could use the same practices for assembly that the airline companies use to manufacture multinational spacecraft to be put into service like airliners are today, we could have routine flights around the clock shuttling tens of thousands of people into orbit a day!

even though i think the world governments could handle doing this i think some sects of people will want to destroy the operation and prevent humans from leaving earth. it seems to me one of these sects is already in power..

but back to my original theory, what if all we worked for was to find ourselves in a massive orbiting meat grinder run by nasty slaves of the original proposing aliens?

;-)