2012 LZ1 to pass within 14 Lunar distances tonight

[boogabooga]

http://news.yahoo.com/huge-asteroid-fly-earth-thursday-watch-online-212921559.html

Wow, it's fairly sobering that an asteroid this large was only discovered a few days before closest approach, albeit that closest approach is quite far.

 

[RisingFury]

If a rock 500 meters in diameter hits Earth, our civilization will have a tough time surviving. If a 1 km rock hits Earth, our civilization is over.

Humanity would survive, but be sent back to the stone age.

 

[MattBaker]

Well, in the entry of Earth's atmosphere the asteroid should get smaller...

Of course it'll not and maybe never enter Earth's atmosphere

 

[C3PO]

Humanity would survive, but be sent back to the stone age.

A meteor can't destroy knowledge. But it would give the survivors a tough time.

 

[Gerdih]

A meteor can't destroy knowledge. But it would give the survivors a tough time.

Knowledge dies if there isn't any way to transmit it to the new generations.

 

[boogabooga]

Mad Max and Waterworld come to mind...

 

[Messierhunter]

Here's a timelapse video I made of the asteroid last night:

 

[Yoda]

Was cloudy here all night
Thanks Messierhunter

 

[RisingFury]

Well, in the entry of Earth's atmosphere the asteroid should get smaller...

Of course it'll not and maybe never enter Earth's atmosphere

It might get smaller, but it still releases its energy and dusts the atmosphere.

A meteor can't destroy knowledge. But it would give the survivors a tough time.

Knowledge wouldn't die - not all of it, but today's society is incapable of surviving without a large food supply, electricity, modern medicine,...

Majority of the people wouldn't get killed by the asteroid itself, they'd die of lack of resources.

Right after the strike, knowing advanced sciences won't help you much, if you don't know how to produce food. A lot of our knowledge would be destroyed because it wouldn't be passed on.

 

[T.Neo]

If a rock 500 meters in diameter hits Earth, our civilization will have a tough time surviving. If a 1 km rock hits Earth, our civilization is over.

Humanity would survive, but be sent back to the stone age.

You seem fairly sure of those statements- do you have any scientific evidence or reason to back them up?

 

[Rtyh-12]

You know what's even sadder than the fact that, if it were on a collision course with us, we'd only get a warning 4 days before impact?

The comments to that article.

 

[statickid]

Hmmm, I know ur probably just saying "stone age" as a saying, but it made me think of something. we have so much garbage and slow decaying products that humans may never be able to return to the "stone" age. no matter what happens, if there are survivors, they'll be able to disect and salvage glass, plastic, composites, and metals. not to mention manufactured tools that would be usable for some time. even if they are basically making primative tools, they'll be made out of high tech materials

 

[C3PO]

Right after the strike, knowing advanced sciences won't help you much, if you don't know how to produce food. A lot of our knowledge would be destroyed because it wouldn't be passed on.

I'm sure some of the survivors will be smart enough to provide resources to people that know advanced science. Humans are very good at adapting to changing conditions.

Hunger and disease will probably have a big impact on the population and it will take time to rebuild a "modern" society. but we'd still be way ahead of the stone age.

It will still be pretty grim compared to today's 1'st world standards. At the end of 1600's in London 75% of children died before reaching their 5'th birthday.

 

[RisingFury]

You seem fairly sure of those statements- do you have any scientific evidence or reason to back them up?

Estimates of the amount of dust such an impact throws into the atmosphere and estimates of the climate change that happens. The change happens instantly and not over a few decades, which ends up being the reason for food production to fail.

Hmmm, I know ur probably just saying "stone age" as a saying, but it made me think of something. we have so much garbage and slow decaying products that humans may never be able to return to the "stone" age. no matter what happens, if there are survivors, they'll be able to disect and salvage glass, plastic, composites, and metals. not to mention manufactured tools that would be usable for some time. even if they are basically making primative tools, they'll be made out of high tech materials

I'm sure some of the survivors will be smart enough to provide resources to people that know advanced science. Humans are very good at adapting to changing conditions.

Hunger and disease will probably have a big impact on the population and it will take time to rebuild a "modern" society. but we'd still be way ahead of the stone age.

It will still be pretty grim compared to today's 1'st world standards. At the end of 1600's in London 75% of children died before reaching their 5'th birthday.

Well, you're both right in that the stuff we have lying around now would be of considerable use and would be recycled, but keep in mind that industry would be gone and the recycling would happen only on a small scale.

And I said "stone age" referring to exactly that case. Industry is gone, so the only thing you have left is scavenging - comparable to stone age style hunting and gathering.

 

[T.Neo]

Estimates of the amount of dust such an impact throws into the atmosphere and estimates of the climate change that happens. The change happens instantly and not over a few decades, which ends up being the reason for food production to fail.

Whether a bolide impact would throw dust into the atmosphere and create climatic effects isn't the issue- the question is how severe those effects and what the severity to the environment would be, and how human society itself would react.

Industry is gone, so the only thing you have left is scavenging - comparable to stone age style hunting and gathering.

Hunter-gatherers don't scavenge their technology, they make it themselves with their own knowledge. While hunter-gatherer societies as a whole contained less scientific knowledge than humanity does now, their personal knowledge of the technology vital to survival is more comprehensive than the knowledge that a person living in an industrial society might hold of technology that is similarly vital to them.

It wasn't the lack of industrial infrastructure that kept humanity in a hunter-gatherer state for tens of thousands of years, but a lack of knowledge. Following a global disaster there would be far more knowledge available to people attempting to re-establish industrial infrastructure, even if the pre-catastrophe infrastructure itself could not be utilised directly.

 

[statickid]

i was referring to the stone age in the context of the ages being named for their most important material, like, stone age, copper age, bronze age, and iron age. now it would be the scrap tech age. ahahha i was actually picturing hilarious car part armor and a sword club made from bike sprockets. i guess i was picturing something like water world... :rofl:

 

[NovaSilisko]

You seem fairly sure of those statements- do you have any scientific evidence or reason to back them up?

I have to say, this statement right here is the sort of thing that defines you, Neo :lol:

 

[C3PO]

i guess i was picturing something like water world... :rofl:

Hollywood rarely manages to depict the past with any degree of accuracy, so I doubt they'll have more success getting the future spot on.

 

[orb]

Universe Today: Recent Earth-Passing Asteroid is Much Bigger Than Originally Estimated:

An asteroid that recently passed by Earth is about twice as large as originally estimated, and it would have had serious global consequences if it had impacted Earth. Asteroid 2012 LZ1 was only discovered on June 10, 2012 by Rob McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in Australia. This Near Earth Object was thought to be fairly large, 502 meters (1,650 feet) wide, and quite bright. But astronomers using the planetary radar system at Arecibo Observatory were able to better determine the asteroid’s size, rotation rate and shape and found it to be about 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) wide and actually quite dark.

Scientists consider a kilometer-wide asteroid is at the size threshold that could set off an extinction-level event if it were to hit Earth.

“This object turned out to be quite a bit bigger than we expected, said Dr. Ellen Howell from Arecibo, “which shows how important radar observations can be, because we’re still learning a lot about the population of asteroids.”

{...}

SpaceRef: Asteroid 2012 LZ1 Twice As Big As First Believed

Discovery News: Asteroid 2012 LZ1 Just Got Supersized

SPACE.com: Surprise! Big Asteroid That Flew By Earth Larger Than Thought

Discover Magazine - Bad Astronomy: Near-Earth asteroid twice as big as previously thought

 

[Gerdih]

Hell 1 km.. and we don't have any tech to avoid this potential danger.