News Japan Earthquake, Tsunami, & Nuclear Disaster

[Wishbone]

Ultimate beneficiaries are hiding behind JTSB and MTBJ.

EDIT: Think the world and Japanese nation have the right to know names of the persons who control the Godjira. AFAIK there was a nice French law that forced owners of explosives plants to live on the premises with their families.

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In Chernobyl, main localization decisions were taken in the evening of April 26, and implemented between April 26 and May 2. 2400 tonnes of lead...

EDIT #2: How many choppers are employed by the Japanese?

Chernobyl: 80 choppers at start (Mi-6, Mi-8, Mi-26, Mi-24RKhR (CBRN reconnaissance helos)), several (3?) recon planes (An-30)
Interview with Gen.N.T.Antoshkin
(http://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2006/04/28/104180.html)

- Как формировалась тогда подчиненная вам группировка? Какие силы военной авиации были задействованы, какие задачи на них возлагались?

- Я уже сказал, что первым начал работать над местом аварии вертолетный полк на Ми-8 и Ми-6, который оперативно базировался в Чернигове (перелетел туда из Александрии). Потом в наш район стали подтягивать силы из других авиационных объединений. Например, из Закавказья перебросили Ми-26 (325-й отдельный вертолетный полк из Цулукидзе. - Прим. ред.), из Прикарпатья пришла эскадрилья Ми-24 РХР. Оперативно прибыли вертолетчики из Белоруссии (первыми перелетели экипажи Ми-8МТ и Ми-26 276-го отдельного вертолетного полка с аэр. Боровуха во главе с командиром полковником В. Бульбой. - Прим. ред.).

В составе группировки вначале было почти 80 вертолетов. Они базировались на оперативных аэродромах Чернигов, Гончаровское, Овруч. На полевом аэродроме в Малейках организовали дезактивацию авиатехники. Насколько мне известно, сейчас там осталось кладбище вертолетов и двигателей. Бориспольскую вертолетную эскадрилью я использовал только для доставки пассажиров и грузов из Киева и Жулян. Для аэрофотосъемки мы задействовали специальные самолеты Ан-30. Каждое утро вертолеты перелетали с оперативных аэродромов на три площадки, расположенные вблизи АЭС. На одной площадке размещались только однотипные вертолеты. Это было обусловлено технологией их загрузки, а также методикой выполнения полетов по наиболее эффективным схемам заходов.

---------- Post added at 01:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 PM ----------

Japan has: 15 (JASDF) + 54 (JGSDF) CH-47J; 32 (JASDF) + 29 (JGSDF) + 92 (JMSDF) UH-60; 131 SH-60 (JMSDF). Countless transport helos in civil and police use. More than enough to establish shifts and drop stuff on Fukushima. Cause if it's not done the country will be a post-apocalyptic wasteland.

 

[jedidia]

As someone not familiar enough with nuclear reactors, I have to ask the question: How big is the risk of one of the reactors actually exploding? As far as I understood it, a real explosion is only possible when there is still water in the ractor vessel (i.e. an explosion due to overpressure in the vessel). When the water is out, there's no immediate danger of the thing exploding, but a meltdown is possible, i.e. the whole reactor vessel gets molten into one happily radiating pile of scrap, which of course isn't desirable either but not quite as bad as the whole thing being blown to pieces.

Did I understand that right or do I have a misconception somewhere?

 

[Urwumpe]

Did I understand that right or do I have a misconception somewhere?

No, that is essentially right. Steam explosions can only happen with enough water. A nuclear explosion by reactivity alone won't happen.

What you should remember anyway: A meltdown is no better alternative to a pressure vessel steam explosion. And a steam explosion does not prevent a meltdown to happen later as well. Just like a meltdown can still produce violent steam explosions. If a massive blob of 3000°C hot corium drops into sea water below the pressure vessel inside the containment, the heat would quickly produce enough steam to burst the containment.

 

[Belisarius]

Wishbone: here are some other reports on TEPCO cases, both nuclear-safety and plain old-fashioned corruption

http://cnic.jp/english/newsletter/nit117/nit117articles/nit117tepco.html
(not sure of the date on this one - 2007?)

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/tepc-m17.shtml
world socialist group

http://www.politicususa.com/en/rachel-maddow-japan-nuclear-2
analysis of msnbc story on the company

http://timshorrock.com/?p=1113
blog, pretty much the same as above

Shady dealings here there and everywhere - safety violations, political corruption, the usual.

 

[Urwumpe]

Yeah, the big stop in energy production of the reactors of the plant in 2003 was caused by TEPCO faking performance reports of the reactors in the past and a complete investigation having been required.

 

[Belisarius]

In that case there's no report that I can see of any fine imposed on the firm as a penalty, only that certain execs were forced to resign.

 

[Urwumpe]

In that case there's no report that I can see of any fine imposed on the firm as a penalty, only that certain execs were forced to resign.

Yes, that is the new corporate Japan. In the old one, their superiors would have told the execs that they are permitted to use the garden.

 

[SiberianTiger]

NY Times has published a flash animation of the forecasted waste plume's path across the Pacific, ending up over the Western USA:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

 

[Wishbone]

Folks,

I regret saying rash words about "the necessity to do this and that". I keep thinking about what I would have done if I were in the shoes of "liquidators" facing horrible levels of radiation, and find no definite answer.

 

[SiberianTiger]

A footage taken from a water dumping helicopter today's morning:

 

[Belisarius]

NY Times has published a flash animation of the forecasted waste plume's path across the Pacific, ending up over the Western USA:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

Don't forget to explain that there are no actual radiation units in this graphic, the real numbers are unknown and so these are just relative measures.
So yellow might mean 10mSv or 100, without data about the emissions at source this is just indicative of dispersion, without indicating anything about health effects, etc.

Oh, and by the time it notionally arrives at the USA, it is between 0.001 and 0.01 the intensity that it was at source. So please don't worry Californians!

 

[Urwumpe]

Folks,

I regret saying rash words about "the necessity to do this and that". I keep thinking about what I would have done if I were in the shoes of "liquidators" facing horrible levels of radiation, and find no definite answer.

I can tell you what I would do from experience: My duty.

It isn't really the big boasting heroism that many people paint about it, you simply don't think enough about the consequences and more about the work that has to be done, until your own life is at risk.

If you work at the plant and see the situation getting worse, you maybe find a minute to think about it and wish to run away, to safety, but then you also have coworkers there, who you don't want to leave behind in the trouble easily. Or you think more and realize that until somebody replaces you, nobody else will be there to fight the situation.

It is not like a fire, where you would call the fire department and then run away, because you are the fire department. You report to above, and pray that they don't make things worse, while you do the best you can see.

It is like the people who died inside this Russian submarine while working in deadly radiation doses to rescue the ship. They knew in advance that they will die, but also that they have to do it. Again people who needed to wait for a long time until somebody even remembered their fate.

 

[Belisarius]

And from the IAEA, here are the casualties so far:
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

Injuries

2 TEPCO employees have minor injuries
2 subcontractor employees are injured, one person suffered broken legs and one person whose condition is unknown was transported to the hospital
2 people are missing
2 people were 'suddenly taken ill'
2 TEPCO employees were transported to hospital during the time of donning respiratory protection in the control centre
4 people (2 TEPCO employees, 2 subcontractor employees) sustained minor injuries due to the explosion at unit 1 on 11 March and were transported to the hospital
11 people (4 TEPCO employees, 3 subcontractor employees and 4 Japanese civil defense workers) were injured due to the explosion at unit 3 on 14 March
Radiological Contamination
17 people (9 TEPCO employees, 8 subcontractor employees) suffered from deposition of radioactive material to their faces, but were not taken to the hospital because of low levels of exposure
One worker suffered from significant exposure during 'vent work,' and was transported to an offsite center
2 policemen who were exposed to radiation were decontaminated
Firemen who were exposed to radiation are under investigation

"Missing" is worrying, though of course if they were like me they've just run away.

 

[Wishbone]

Graham Andrew, Special Adviser to the IAEA Director General on Scientific and Technical Affairs, had a briefing today (audio here - ftp://ftp.iaea.org/dist/adpi/110317briefing/audio/GrAn_BOG4.mp3)

EDIT: Are there any traffic jam information resources that could show current (or past - since the tsunami) situation on the roads leading to Fukushima I? I assume that all railtracks were badly damaged and hence unusable. This is of course an exercise in what-if mental gymnastics, but how else can we estimate the logistical needs of an emergency operation and be able to identify the challenges real decision-makers faced in the past six days.

EDIT #2: Graham Andrew mentions 4 water droppings. Does it mean dropping water four times only or four "helo raids"? (because of posting from dialup, cannot view videos linked to by SibTiger)

 

[Belisarius]

IAEA

Based on a press release from the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary dated 17 March 2011 04:00 UTC, the IAEA can confirm that the Japanese military carried out four helicopter water droppings over the building of reactor unit 3 of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

According to the press release, the droppings took place between 00:48 UTC and 01:00 UTC.

I'm guessing that means one helicopter sortie with four drops. Definitely saw a Chinook dipping the bucket in the sea for a refill in an earlier video.

The latest video doesn't show water dumping but includes the first close-up shots of the plant for 3 days.

 

[Urwumpe]

four loads of water are pretty much just show. Maybe made the building wet.

 

[Belisarius]

Yeah it was definitely one sortie because the total operation was only 12 minutes in duration.

From the videos of the drops, the water dispersed so much that it would be useless.

But we might take some comfort from the fact that the latest video posted by Tiger is crystal clear in video resolution, if there were high levels of radiation I understand that the image would become foggy.

 

[RGClark]

Let me help you here; the decay heat associated with a reactor that has been on-line for a period of at least a few weeks is, following shutdown, (and in percent of the rated full thermal power of the reactor) is approximately as follows:

Instantanenously at shutdown = 7%
1 second following shutdown = 6%
1 minute following shutdown = 3.5%
1 hour following shutdown = 1%

Decay heat, named as such from the decay of the fission products, follows a natural exponential decay. Most auxillary feedwater systems in commerical reactors (and I'm specifically discussing PWRs here; the Japan reactors in question are actually BWRs) is usually rated for 4% to 5% of rated full power and therefore by the time the pumps and systems start and get going, the decay heat load has dropped to within the capability of the systems.
So, the 7% number is actually too large for this type of calculation.

By this calculation all the heat should have dissipated long ago. I read on another forum that though the criticality is stopped the fission process has not, so additional heat is still being generated. Is this correct?.


Bob Clark

 

[Linguofreak]

This seems to indicate (reading between the lines somewhat) that the default option in all decisions is to delay/put off the final decision until the situation becomes undeniably urgent and that decision is forced. There is no reason to put off any action if it is judged to be of use, rather the decision must be made before the situation becomes critical.

To me, this little quotation says a lot about the thinking at the highest levels.

Well, to be fair, they've just been through a 9.0 Earthquake and this is just one of a thousand crises. (Probably the biggest of a thousand, but still...). Every helicopter they use for dropping water is one that could be doing search and rescue. Communications likely aren't in the best shape. Every person working on keeping the reactor under control is one that could be doing search and rescue...

 

[SiberianTiger]

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110317D17JFA30.htm

Thursday, March 17, 2011
New Power Line Installed At Fukushima Daiichi Plant: Govt

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japanese officials have installed cables to supply electricity from Tohoku Electric Power Co.'s (9506) power grid to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a step they hope will help inject water more efficiently into the facility's crippled reactors that are at the center of Japan's nuclear crisis, the government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said at a news conference Thursday night.

Officials will try to connect the cable to the plant's No. 2 reactor on Friday, the agency said.

The No. 2 reactor's containment vessel was partly damaged in its pressure suppression chamber. The reactor building is emitting vapor deemed to have originated from spent nuclear fuel's storage pools into the air.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501), which operates the plant, will try to restart the No. 2 reactor's cooling system Friday by using the power supply from Tohoku Electric, officials said.

(The Nikkei March 17 online edition)