News Belarus 2020

[Notebook]

Belarus: Mass protest eclipses defiant Belarus leader's rally

Belarus: Mass protest eclipses defiant Belarus leader's rally

Protesters keep up pressure over disputed elections, as President Lukashenko calls opponents 'rats'.

www.bbc.com

Is this likely to escalate?

 

[IronRain]

Well, so far I don’t really see another outcome TBH.

 

[Urwumpe]

Well, its complicated. On one hand, it is pretty clear, that popular support for Lukachenka is on its lowest value ever. Sure much lower than the inofficial 30% from a poll leaked in 2016. He also starts to loose control over a certain amount of the political system. But otherwise, the system that kept him in office for now 25 years still seems to exist.

Its important to note that the protests are aiming only on removing Lukachenka and his dictatorship - no Russian flags, no EU flags, no calls for certain alliances. The sign of the revolution is the flag of Belarus from 1991 to 1995, before Lukachenka switched back to a design similar to the Soviet era flag from 1951 to 1991. The protests also have been extremely peaceful and loud so far, like a happy party or had been compared to the German Love Parade of the 1990s.

And it looks a lot like Putin is stupid enough to send military forces to Belarus today. That could be pretty inflammatory for the whole region, if they do anything Ukraine-like again. It is doubtful that Putin will permit any kind of new leadership in Belarus, that does not play by his rules - even if Lukachenka was officially no fan of Moscow and did name both Russia and NATO as threats to his country, he always depended on Russian favor to stay in power.

I really hope nobody does anything stupid.

 

[RisingFury]

I really hope nobody does anything stupid.

Dictators stay in power because nobody does anything stupid. I hope someone does something stupid.

 

[jedidia]

Dictators stay in power because nobody does anything stupid. I hope someone does something stupid.

People usually die when somebody does something stupid, so... there's really pros and cons here, you know.

 

[Urwumpe]

People usually die when somebody does something stupid, so... there's really pros and cons here, you know.

I still think it is more stupid to arrange yourself with an dictatorship, than waiting for a moment of weakness to use a smart strategy and good organisation to try to overthrow it. Of course, you need to take some risks, some might consider that alone stupid. But without taking risks, there can be no change.

Thus, when I say "Don't do something stupid." I mean: Don't make things more complicated (and deadly) than they already are.

 

[RisingFury]

People usually die when somebody does something stupid, so... there's really pros and cons here, you know.

People die when they're quiet. Freedom is always paid for in blood.

 

[Urwumpe]

People die when they're quiet. Freedom is always paid for in blood.

Yeah. Thousands of dead people in Germany 1989.... Poland, billions died when going on strike for freedom.

Excuse me for being personal and direct there, but I think you are a too romantic guy for strategy.

You can very often win freedom without bloodshed by a very old strategic concept: Cuius testiculos habes, habeas cardia et cerebellum. Yes, it is not nice, not fair and not glorious. But effective.

 

[jedidia]

Poland, billions died when going on strike for freedom.

I don't think Poland has billions, though...

 

[Michkov]

I don't think Poland has billions, though...

of course not, they all died.

 

[Linguofreak]

Yeah. Thousands of dead people in Germany 1989.... Poland, billions died when going on strike for freedom.

But they certainly weren't quiet, and the lack of bloodshed want guaranteed going in. My German History professor back in college had attended the Monday demonstrations in Leipzig and recalled one night when it really looked like the police were going to break up the protest.

 

[Urwumpe]

But they certainly weren't quiet, and the lack of bloodshed want guaranteed going in. My German History professor back in college had attended the Monday demonstrations in Leipzig and recalled one night when it really looked like the police were going to break up the protest.

Yes, there was also the fate of the smaller protests in 1953 in the memory of the people.

But: In 1989, the situation was different, there was no big brother in Moscow that the East Berlin stalinists had been able to call. Also, the decision to protest on Monday was an important social filter, since SED party officials had been unable to join the protests because of the party meetings on monday. Using the army against the protests in Leipzig failed, because the corporals that had been ordered to stop the (peaceful) protests refused to fight against their own people and started to protests themselves in their barracks - that most of them had been just drafted into the army as prerequisite for studying in the GDR also helped there.

There had been a few important strategic decisions by the leaders of the protests in the end, that ensured the success, but the most important factor had been an executive that ran out of options to end the protests by violence alone - those who decided to use blunt power to stop it, lacked the people to execute such orders. Others decided against violence because they realized it was not helping when people already left the GDR to the west via Hungaria. The more people fled, the less control the communist party had over the people that stayed at home.

 

[jedidia]

Yeah. Thousands of dead people in Germany 1989.... Poland, billions died when going on strike for freedom.

Ok, it took me this long and your last post to realise that this wasn't a typo when naming examples where a lot of people died due to stupid actions, but sarcasm. Missing the proper context sure made that post difficult to understand
I was like "huh, I remember the fall of the wall to be pretty peaceful, but I was 9 at the moment, so what do I really know?"

 

[Notebook]

Claims by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that "foreign powers" are organising a build-up of troops on the country's border are baseless, says Nato.

Dressed in military fatigues, the president said he had placed his armed forces on "high alert".

Protests continued in the streets of the capital Minsk on Saturday following a disputed election two weeks ago.

Demonstrators are demanding that Mr Lukashenko stand down.

The leader, who has ruled Belarus for 26 years, claimed the Nato bloc was trying to split up Belarus and install a new president in Minsk.

Belarus: Nato denies foreign troops are on border

The Belarusian president places the army on alert as he talks of an external military build-up.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Notebook]

Not getting quieter.

Belarus protest: Mass rally keeps pressure on Lukashenko

Tens of thousands rallying in Minsk are met by a huge police turnout and dozens of arrests.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Urwumpe]

No, and tanks had been filmed driving into Minsk earlier this day.

 

[Notebook]

Belarus: Nobel Laureate Alexievich visited by diplomats amid 'harassment'

European diplomats gather with Svetlana Alexievich after she says masked men tried to enter her home.

www.bbc.co.uk