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Old 10-20-2008, 08:06 PM   #16
EJ316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbeachy1 View Post
 "Absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence."
This is a wonderful quote!

This whole thread is really interesting. I personally think that we are not alone in the Universe but obviously some of the civilizations will be more advanced and some less advanced, and some completely different. It does put it into perspective how we think we're so advanced but we could be the most primitive beings in the Universe..:sorry:
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:32 PM   #17
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My post was not meant to give anyone the impression that we are first.
It just meant, that we are early. We come from the first generation of stars where it is likely that habitable solar systems form. That of course does not mean that there weren't any such systems generations before.
And as Coolhand said so nicely, even civilisations that are ahead of us a few hundred/thousand years could be unimaginably further advanced than we are.
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:57 PM   #18
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Yes, of course. I mean, what's 100 years in comparison to 100 000...

Though I think we're discussing things on a waaaay wrong level. Or we are just confirming that we don't even know what intelligence is.

Take dogs for example.

Dogs can learn stuff - tricks and all, can associate their "self" with their name and can easily navigate around once they're familiar with a certain area. That would indicate that they might have some intelligence and yet, even though they technically are intelligent life forms - compared to single cell organisms, they don't use tools or any other technology for that matter.

However, if we say that... for someone to be intelligent, they'd have to use tools, then the most we can say about intelligent lifeforms other then Humans on planet Earth are Chimpanzees. They've learned to use sticks and stones as primitive tools and yet are still far off from understanding rocket science

Granted, species take time to evolve and it took humans a long time to get here from when we picked up the first tools, but 2 million years of our evolution isn't such a short time anymore, when comparing to 100 000 years



There are just too many factors to consider for this equation, used for calculation of civilizations, to be effective. Too many assumptions are made for this to be anywhere near accurate. This isn't even our best guess, it's just a guess.
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:59 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbeachy1 View Post
 I forget who made this quote originally, but I'll repeat it here: "Absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence."
Whoever may have said it, sure as hell wasn't a lawyer.
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:59 PM   #20
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Kinda doubt that they are warlike, or else they must be a lot like Animals and hence not an advanced civilization, they'd be like us, warlike and aggressive.
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:04 PM   #21
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 Kinda doubt that they are warlike, or else they must be a lot like Animals and hence not an advanced civilization, they'd be like us, warlike and aggressive.

My point is.... do they even know what war is... and if they do, is it really something like a massive Sci-Fi war out there
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:14 PM   #22
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They could well be warlike. If human like civilisations are common, then you can assume that some if not all alien civilisations are also composed or are descended from that planets dominant predator. A predator must be smarter and more aggressive than its prey so those aggressive traits are passed along with its intelligence from generation to generation.

Basically anything thats evolved in similar way to us, as a predatory species could be very dangerous, just as we are. Which is why some people feel it's foolish to advertise our presence at the moment by sending signals or probes out into space.

Maybe no one would be listening or ever see it, perhaps someone might and percieve us as a threat, and then eliminate us, probably be the logical thing to do... Probably what we'd do to another race.
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:29 PM   #23
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The Probe will protect us!!!

Seriously though, probes aren't a risk. Radio signals are.
But even that isn't much of a risk in my opinion because we've only been sending our radio signals out for 60 years or so, and you have to keep in mind that radiation falls off with inverse r^3, which means that you really need to be listening to pick *anything* up at 60 light year distance. Our antennas from 60 years back weren't really powerful in the first place.

Keep in mind, when Russia first launched it's probe to the Moon, there was only 1 deep space antenna that was sensitive enough for the signal to be picked up. And that was just this short distance to the Moon.

Granted, we now have antennae that can pick up something like a millionth of a billionth of watt... but we're listening specifically in a certain region for a long period of time.

I'm not sure if radio signals get blocked even a bit by interstellar gas, but if they do, even less of a chance that someone can pick us up.


Which brings me to the last point... if there really is a warlike civilization out there, that probably means it's not alone. And if it's not alone, it might just be locked in the middle of a large conflict. I seriously doubt they would want to investigate us or any other undeveloped civilization like us



Really nice debate though
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:31 PM   #24
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Roughly 3% of stars are G2 - Like our Sun. The universe is a dangerous place with all those GRB's and other things. Life on Earth has suffered no less than FIVE major extinction events.
Now, it might be nice to think of some alien species thats struggled against all that and won but it's so unlikely as to be zero.

There are no aliens. We are the first and because of that we have a responsibility to survive.

When we get out to other star systems will WILL find life but it won't be intelligent. It'll be something like boneless fish on some dreary waterworld light years from here.
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:40 PM   #25
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But when you take into account how many 3% are then your zero becomes the opposite.
And there has been a lot of time between extinction events, If we were to become a multiplaneted race, we'd survive that...
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:45 PM   #26
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I'm not talking about our tv.

We have already transmitted powerful signals out into space as focused beams, these will travel much further and still be easy to detect from other parts of the galaxy, they will still take hundreds or thousands of years to get there however... Even a probe hurtling through the void might eventually get somewhere in millions of years time... Perhaps the voyager probe from the 1970's will doom whatever civilisation - perhaps the dolphins or the ants, or the cockroaches - that replaced us after we blew outselves up trying to reach type 1 civilisation status.

our probability for us reaching type status btw, is apparently roughly 50%50... a little optimistic perhaps.


-----Posted Added-----


Quote:
Originally Posted by TSPenguin View Post
 But when you take into account how many 3% are then your zero becomes the opposite.
And there has been a lot of time between extinction events, If we were to become a multiplaneted race, we'd survive that...
Indeed, and once you become a type 2 civilisation, there's no force in nature that can stop you, whatever happens you can control it or simply get out the way, you're not stuck in one place like we are at the moment. There's plenty of time between extinction events for this to happen.
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:54 PM   #27
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Anybody else remember the movie "Starman"?

We sent out an invitation to contact us on the side of Voyager, an alien decides to accept the invitation... and we spend the rest of the movie trying to kill him .

Would YOU contact us?
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:56 PM   #28
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I'm pretty sure that although we have come a long way in terms of being able to answer this question we are still very far from reaching a conclusion.

There are far too many stars in the Universe to make the very grand assumption that we are the only one of our kind...in my opinion.
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:02 PM   #29
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About the agressiveness of other races:

One could argue that in order to reach type 1 or even type 2 the race will have to abandon the concept of fighting among itself.
That is, of course, only speculative. It might speed up the developement or it might hinder it, depending on the genetical basis of the race.

But it sure would be interesting to observe how long it will take for us (or any other race) to outgrow their genetic heritage. Even more interesting is how you define outgrow...
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:17 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by TSPenguin View Post
 But when you take into account how many 3% are then your zero becomes the opposite.
And there has been a lot of time between extinction events, If we were to become a multiplaneted race, we'd survive that...
Even if we somehow colonise the solar system...even if we manage to establish interstellar travel and colonise the entire local cluster, it would only take one star going supernova to wipe us out. Even if humanity spreads across a large part of our galaxy, a gamma ray burst would be all it takes to make it extinct overnight. Sure, colonisation and decentralisation can help us survive local extinction events, but there's still a large range of cosmic phenomena that we don't even know much about, but what we do know is that we can't do anything about them.

"You can run, but you can't hide", I believe it goes.
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