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Old 10-15-2017, 09:55 PM   #16
cristiapi
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Originally Posted by Urwumpe View Post
 your last simulation set already covers just a few days, which would be on a magnitude of 100 orbits.
Not sure to understand (my English is not too good), what do you mean?
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Old 10-15-2017, 10:32 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by cristiapi View Post
 Not sure to understand (my English is not too good), what do you mean?
Well, the you have simulated multiple trajectories with varying parameters and the reentry happens in an interval of 8 days in all those scenarios. Which means, since each day has about 16 orbits, that there are less than 8x16 = 64 orbits possible between first possible reentry and last possible reentry.

Now, you can't just connect the hypothetic reentry locations by simple lines, but you could show the ground track of each middle scenario like that:

"Sort scenarios by impact time"
"For each scenario:"
"Start ground track at reentry time of previous reentry scenario"
"End ground track at reentry time of next reentry scenario."
"Plot ground track of this scenario between the dates"
"Mark impact position of this scenario".

If you plot each ground track with a 200 km wide brush, the places below the ground tracks should still be in danger - the other places not.
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Old 10-16-2017, 09:06 AM   #18
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I could try, but I would get just random tracks. The same reliability would be obtained if you use a random number generator instead of my simulation.
While the reentry date is reasonably accurate (provided that the atmospheric density is accurate), the ground track is very inaccurate.
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Old 10-16-2017, 10:10 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by cristiapi View Post
 I could try, but I would get just random tracks. The same reliability would be obtained if you use a random number generator instead of my simulation.
While the reentry date is reasonably accurate (provided that the atmospheric density is accurate), the ground track is very inaccurate.
Damn, I would have expected some checkerboard pattern already. Nevermind.
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Old 12-15-2017, 08:53 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by cristiapi View Post
 High solar activity means high air density at the Tiangong-1 altitude and the re-entry is now expected by the end of February:

{image}

I also slightly changed the Tiangong-1 model to improve the fitting of the new TLEs, but the geomagnetic and solar activity indices peaked on September and the air density increased accordingly:

{image}
Hi Cris, i can perform a reentry simulation for the tiangong using orbiter, or better i can try to simulate approaching some info and coefficients,just give me some time to do it.
Just for curiosity,which type of software did you use to plot the space weather on this picture?
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Old 12-15-2017, 10:51 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by infotechggs View Post
 Hi Cris, i can perform a reentry simulation for the tiangong using orbiter, or better i can try to simulate approaching some info and coefficients,just give me some time to do it.
Hi infotechggs, very good!
Do you plan to use an improved atmospheric model with updated solar indices?

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Originally Posted by infotechggs View Post
 Just for curiosity,which type of software did you use to plot the space weather on this picture?
I just use excel to plot the solar indices given in this file:
ftp://ftp.agi.com/pub/DynamicEarthDa...r-All-v1.2.txt
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