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Old 08-05-2012, 01:28 PM   #76
Mikeol1987
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Originally Posted by N_Molson View Post
 Do you realize he is saying : "I'm going to put millions of people on Mars" ? If that isn't megalomania...
I agree in some respects, and in others I believe its this same Megalomania that got man to the moon, and machines beyond the solar system.
Technical issues need to be addressed, but I think the vision is set on some basis of future events
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Old 08-05-2012, 02:00 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Mikeol1987 View Post
 I agree in some respects, and in others I believe its this same Megalomania that got man to the moon, and machines beyond the solar system.
Technical issues need to be addressed, but I think the vision is set on some basis of future events
I wouldn't compare this to the moon landing. When Dryden suggested landing on the moon for beating the Russians, he had already enough information to provide a rough time schedule.

That is the difference to megalomania... Musk has not even put a single human into space, has no schedule how to even get a single human on Mars and no clue about the many problems that will await him for getting even just 100 to the Mars one day.

It makes a nice light-hearted joke, but some people here are too much fanboy of Elon Musk to get it.
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Old 08-05-2012, 02:41 PM   #78
RGClark
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 Funny how much a billion is today.
Tesla Motors for example is "only" worth 700 million, and most of this is still from the initial investments and loans (Alone 465 million USD from the US DOE as interest-bearing loan), not by selling cars and car components. It actually still has a negative cash flow and has yet to turn a profit.
Same for SpaceX - no hard numbers known, it is estimated at 1.3 billion. 875 million are estimated to be Musks share of it, he invested $100 million at the start into it, then it started gathering loans from NASA in the context of the COTS programs. SpaceX is still in the same early phase of its existence as Tesla Motors: Negative cashflow, many loans and money from investors who wait for it to turn a real profit one day.
Musk had only one really big company, and that was Paypal. Which he sold for 1.5 billion at the height of the .com bubble, which was the really best that he ever did - he left it when it became a real multi-billion company.
PS: Musk himself says that $1100/kg is very possible. Which isn't far away from what I said before in the thread, and still a major achievement. $100 is just fantasy even for Musk, when he has to estimate its feasibility.
Anticipating Big Growth at Tesla.
By RICHARD BEALES and ROBERT COLE
Published: October 23, 2011
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Either outcome may be extreme. But Tesla’s stock price is still anticipating impressive growth. Its enterprise value of nearly $3 billion is more than five times the average analyst estimate of revenue for 2012, according to Thomson Reuters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/bu...-at-tesla.html
Also, Elon has said his ultimate goal is to bring down the costs to orbit to the $100 to $200 per kilo range through reusability.

Bob Clark

---------- Post added at 10:41 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:21 AM ----------

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Originally Posted by BruceJohnJennerLawso View Post
 Where are they excpecting to start shaving all these costs per mass unit from? I think they need to explain how thats going to happen for the media and the public to start taking them seriously.
Musk has said numerous times it will come from reusability. That's why there is a big push to test the elements of reusability with the "Grasshopper" scaled-down Falcon 9 first stage.

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Old 08-05-2012, 04:35 PM   #79
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Also, Elon has said his ultimate goal is to bring down the costs to orbit to the $100 to $200 per kilo range through reusability.

Musk has said numerous times it will come from reusability. That's why there is a big push to test the elements of reusability with the "Grasshopper" scaled-down Falcon 9 first stage
Wait and see, nothing has been proven yet...
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Old 08-05-2012, 06:01 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 Anticipating Big Growth at Tesla.
By RICHARD BEALES and ROBERT COLE
Published: October 23, 2011
I anticipated a warm dinner tonight and what do I find...

Right, there are different quality levels for predictions.

The last number for Tesla was 700 million for total assets. I don't really care much about short term stock prices and predictions by stock market pundits, who usually only recommend, what makes them earn most of the money.
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Old 08-05-2012, 07:58 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by Urwumpe View Post
 I anticipated a warm dinner tonight and what do I find...
Right, there are different quality levels for predictions.
The last number for Tesla was 700 million for total assets. I don't really care much about short term stock prices and predictions by stock market pundits, who usually only recommend, what makes them earn most of the money.
That's a commonly used means of evaluating a companys value: how much stock is on the market and the prices of the stock. That that many people own the stock at that current value means a large portion of stock purchasing market believe the company has that value. It is not pundits who set those stock values; it's the market.


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Old 08-05-2012, 08:35 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
 That's a commonly used means of evaluating a companys value: how much stock is on the market and the prices of the stock. That that many people own the stock at that current value means a large portion of stock purchasing market believe the company has that value. It is not pundits who set those stock values; it's the market.
Yes, and like I said above, this market says: 700 million. Not 3 billion. 3 billion is anticipated by undisclosed means for the future in the MLP fantasy world of the self-declared experts. A company with good tendencies can be a bit higher by its stock value than by its real assets, but generally, it does not vary much unless you are approaching a bubble... like we had lately.

Not that 3 billion is hard to achieve for a car company. The biggest three car producers are at 200 billion.
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Old 08-05-2012, 11:24 PM   #83
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 Do you realize he is saying : "I'm going to put millions of people on Mars" ? If that isn't megalomania...
That would be megalomania, but I don't think that's exactly what he said. AFAIK the correct quote is "I want to put millions of people on Mars".

And I don't even think that he meant that SpaceX would put millions of people into orbit. I think Elon wants to be part of the beginning of space travel for the general public by bringing the costs down, and the quote was taken out of context.
Whether you call it "visionary" or "megalomania" depends mostly on whether you agree with him or not.
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Old 08-06-2012, 07:16 PM   #84
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Nothing you can do on manned flights though - on manned flights, you design to reliability, since even a gold plated spacecraft would be cheaper than loosing a single astronaut by an avoidable accident.
Surely various cost-reducing design choices are relatively irrelevant (like simplified launch infrastructure) or helpful (using less-stressed, more robust engines instead of high-performance bleeding edge designs, minimising seperation events) toward improving safety?
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Old 08-06-2012, 08:25 PM   #85
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Put it the way you want, but I'm 100% certain than there are not going to be more than 1,999,999 millions people living on Mars in Elon Musk's lifespan (I'll be happy if a manned mission gets there, to begin with).

So it is definitively an irrational statement, since he knows there is no way to achieve this in our timeframe (in a few centuries, why not, that's a different matter).
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Old 08-07-2012, 07:18 AM   #86
RGClark
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Originally Posted by N_Molson View Post
 Put it the way you want, but I'm 100% certain than there are not going to be more than 1,999,999 millions people living on Mars in Elon Musk's lifespan (I'll be happy if a manned mission gets there, to begin with).
So it is definitively an irrational statement, since he knows there is no way to achieve this in our timeframe (in a few centuries, why not, that's a different matter).
Note that Elon's primary focus is that humanity should become a multiplanet species. Then he wants other planets such as Mars to have self-sustaining colonies. That is the impetus of his comments of having large numbers of people on Mars.

Here's the passage where he makes the comment about millions of people on Mars from that article linked in the first post in this thread:

Quote:
Musk doesn't just want to stop at one human. In his Heinlein prize acceptance speech, he said he wants to put 10,000 people on Mars. Musk rarely makes public statements merely for effect but a call for 10,000 would-be Martians is extraordinary, even by his standards. When I query him on this point, he pauses. Is he reconsidering? Yes... but, as with so much else about Musk, not in a predictable way. "Ultimately we don't really want 10,000 people on Mars," he says, after letting the pause linger a few seconds more. "We want millions."
To me he's saying that is a goal we should be aiming for, to have a fully independent, well populated planet.


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Old 08-07-2012, 12:23 PM   #87
T.Neo
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There are parts of Earth that are far cheaper to reach than Mars, and a good deal more habitable too, yet have far fewer than a million inhabitants (see Greenland, for example). One wonders if Musk's Mars plan includes immigration incentives...

Last edited by T.Neo; 08-07-2012 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:05 PM   #88
Hlynkacg
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Originally Posted by N_Molson View Post
 Put it the way you want, but I'm 100% certain than there are not going to be more than 1,999,999 millions people living on Mars in Elon Musk's lifespan (I'll be happy if a manned mission gets there, to begin with).

So it is definitively an irrational statement, since he knows there is no way to achieve this in our timeframe (in a few centuries, why not, that's a different matter).
I hate to be defending our resident quasi-mathematical tinkerbell but "Impossible" and "No ****ing chance in hell" are not synonymous terms.
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:29 PM   #89
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Replace 100% by 99.9999999999999999999999 % (in case the Almighty Probe teleports several billions people and terraforms the planet in an instant of time).

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Old 08-07-2012, 11:55 PM   #90
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 Replace 100% by 99.9999999999999999999999 % (in case the Almighty Probe teleports several billions people and terraforms the planet in an instant of time).

billions?

The target is millions.

Likewise who said anything about terraforming?
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