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Old 10-11-2018, 11:02 AM   #16
GLS
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Originally Posted by rodion_herrera View Post
This one is showing the onboard at the time of the "anomaly"... scary jolt (it loops as the signal was lost).
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:16 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by GLS View Post
 This one is showing the onboard at the time of the "anomaly"... scary jolt (it loops as the signal was lost).
Not too scary considering how staging usually looks like.

In this video you can also see a small jolt during staging at about 2:30:



Just compare the current launch to this one from the outside:



It really doesn't look too strange right until staging. What is odd is the huge cloud at staging and the additional debris afterwards.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:19 AM   #18
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 Not too scary considering how staging usually looks like.
But those accelerations are +/- vertical, this one was sideways.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:27 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by GLS View Post
 But those accelerations are +/- vertical, this one was sideways.
Can't tell for sure from the short frame there left. It rather looks like forward to me, especially if you focus on the plush animals in the top left corner.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:45 AM   #20
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https://sputniknews.com/world/201810...ccident-soyuz/

"According to preliminary data, the Soyuz accident occurred because one of the four first stage units hit the second stage and pressure dropped, the source reported."

Anyone else confirm this from another source?
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:48 AM   #21
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Anybody speak Russian that can give an idea of what is being said between the soyuz and MC?

Sent from my Moto E (4) using Tapatalk
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:07 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by rodion_herrera View Post
 https://sputniknews.com/world/201810...ccident-soyuz/

"According to preliminary data, the Soyuz accident occurred because one of the four first stage units hit the second stage and pressure dropped, the source reported."

Anyone else confirm this from another source?
That also fits to my visual observations of the staging, a failed booster separation with recontact. Question is just: Did the propulsive LOX vent fail or did a booster separate earlier than others?
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:07 PM   #23
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Here they are!!!!



EDIT:direct link for the image as I can't see it in the post
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpOdqrmXUAApE3h.jpg:large

Last edited by GLS; 10-11-2018 at 12:09 PM. Reason: not sure twitter embed is working....
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:10 PM   #24
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This is bad because it might provide a good excuse to end the ISS program, at a convenient time to also stop Dragon2 and CTS.

Whatever happens, this will be the decisive moment.
Human space flight either continues with multiple new vehicles and new players, or it ends right here...
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:52 PM   #25
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 Whatever happens, this will be the decisive moment.
Human space flight either continues with multiple new vehicles and new players, or it ends right here...
I think it will rather be decisive for the Russian spaceflight, because it comes after a long string of small and large quality assurance failures.

The key question is: Can the ISS be kept in orbit unmanned long enough until a US capsule can fly safely? The current crew will have to return.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:10 PM   #26
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So, what's the best by date on the soyuz currently docked at the station? End of the year or so?

Unless they pull out something like "we'll ground the current booster revision and launch an older one", the ISS would be uncrewed for quite a while.


A digest of the news from Russian sources:

-Cosmonauts are ok, no medical intervention was needed. They are being flown to a hospital in Baikonur for precautionary observation period.

-Rumours are going around that the stages weren't attached properly, causing an incorrect separation and collision. More precisely, the hinge bolt was missing at the top.

-There are no known inhabited locations within the debris rain field, multiple search teams are deployed to collect the pieces for investigation
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:13 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Urwumpe View Post
 The key question is: Can the ISS be kept in orbit unmanned long enough until a US capsule can fly safely? The current crew will have to return.
If the investigation/fix isn't finished by the time the current Soyuz reaches its life expectancy (late this year), the Russians can always launch the next Soyuz unmanned. If it works, the current crew can remain aloft for a few more months. If it fails, then those questions come into play as we watch the current crew land, leaving "space unmanned" for the first time in almost 20 years.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:15 PM   #28
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Can they quicken the next mission, if they find a reason for the mishap, rather quickly ?
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:46 PM   #29
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 Can they quicken the next mission, if they find a reason for the mishap, rather quickly ?
Depends - if the cause of the problem is less of technical nature than of human nature (quality assurance, sabotage), it could take much longer now.

Russia will have to make sure, that such threats to human life are impossible, and that could take a while, considering how complex spaceflight is.

---------- Post added at 15:46 ---------- Previous post was at 15:45 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Artlav View Post
 -Rumours are going around that the stages weren't attached properly, causing an incorrect separation and collision. More precisely, the hinge bolt was missing at the top.

-There are no known inhabited locations within the debris rain field, multiple search teams are deployed to collect the pieces for investigation
If that rumor would be true, it would be the really worst case. I would have preferred a stuck LOX vent valve in that case.
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:29 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Urwumpe View Post
 I think it will rather be decisive for the Russian spaceflight, because it comes after a long string of small and large quality assurance failures.

The key question is: Can the ISS be kept in orbit unmanned long enough until a US capsule can fly safely? The current crew will have to return.
Nah. As unsafe as Soyuz might be at the moment, it's still safer than STS *ever was*.
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