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Old 06-06-2012, 01:19 AM   #16
anemazoso
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Honestly, and this is not being a bias SpaceX fanboy for a sec, I think SpaceX is the only one that can do it with the money congress is likely to give them. If SpaceX wins a primary contract for the next round they will pretty much have a complete system. They only have to finish dev on the escape system and do some flights with that. But maybe NASA won't let them test the propulsive landing on a CRS mission because they don't want the down mass to be compromised.

Still, I have to assume that what SpaceX has left to develop is so much less than what Boeing and Sierra have to develop that it's a no- brainer.

Of course that still doesn't preclude congress from screwing it up by forcing NASA to include Boeing becase of some strategic industral capabillity type argument.

My guess is going to be:

Spacex and Boeing for primes and Sierra for secondary.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:48 AM   #17
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Right with the very limited money congress is giving them. Which is vastly limiting the oppertunities for the others to compete. ALL milestones are being completed on schedule yet by the end of the year we will likely be down to just three working on it.

And SpaceDev(Sierra) will likely just barely hang on. Slowly making stuff in case SpaceX needs to be replaced yet never actually flying it.

A nice duopoly which is free to increase prices once the initial contracts are up. Brought to you by a congress which loves to tout free enterprise.
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Old 06-06-2012, 02:02 AM   #18
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I'd really like to see SpaceDev succeed. That little spaceplace has seen it's development ups and downs over the past several decades.
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Old 06-06-2012, 04:07 AM   #19
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I personally see it as a better option than Boeing yet more expensive than SpaceX. It has it's place yet the chances of it actually flying in space are low because Boeing will win #2 based on financial viability based on reduced budget.

Atleast it will be congress that screws them over. And not NASA directly.
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Old 06-07-2012, 12:50 PM   #20
RGClark
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FADEC View Post
 ...
In the end the USA still rules. Although not NASA this time. But it hugely supported SpaceX, which I think should be one of the tasks of such a big space agency. So the Commercial Crew course is one of the best things I have seen coming from NASA for almost decades.
But there is also this German, private suborbital venture, Project Enterprise:

http://orbiter-forum.com/showthread....&postcount=968

As I discuss there, just as Sierra Nevada can produce in the Dream Chaser a suborbital craft and an orbital spacecraft in parallel for development costs in the few hundred million dollar range, so also can the ESA member countries.
Perhaps you can read the Project Enterprise German language web site, Fadec. I can't tell if they are using kerosene of hydrogen fuel.
There has also been a proposal to produce a suborbital vehicle from SpaceShipTwo alone, without WhiteKnightTwo, by using the higher performance hydrogen fueled engine, the Vinci:

SpaceShipTwo could be single stage to suborbit says ESA firm.
By Rob Coppinger on April 29, 2010 4:24 PM
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hy...-single-s.html

Note that the Vinci as is the Vulcain will be produced by the Ottobrunn, Germany division of EADS Astrium.

Likewise this suborbital craft could be developed in parallel with an orbital version.


Bob Clark

Last edited by RGClark; 06-07-2012 at 01:20 PM.
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Old 06-18-2012, 05:14 PM   #21
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Parabolic Arc: Bolden: Commercial Crew Awards Expected in Mid-July:
Quote:
During a press conference this morning about a NASA-FAA agreement on commercial crew oversight, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden was asked about the agency’s plans for awarding the next phase of the program.

Bolden said the agency fully expects to announce the winners of the Commercial Crew integrated Capability (CCiCap) round in mid-July. The awards, which will cover all aspects of commercial vehicle development, will last for 21 months.

{...}
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Old 06-26-2012, 05:36 AM   #22
Unstung
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Universe Today: "Heart-Pounding Breakout Videos for the Commercial Crew Program"
Here are individual links to each video:
SpaceX's Dragon
Sierra Nevada's Dream Chaser
Boeing CST-100
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Old 07-16-2012, 09:09 AM   #23
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Parabolic Arc: Has NASA Decided to Continue Funding Sierra Nevada’s Dream Chaser?:
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Sierra Nevada Corporation has ramped up the hiring process for its Dream Chaser program in advance of a scheduled NASA announcement of the next round of commercial crew funding. Dream Chaser is in the running for additional development funds.

The company held jobs fairs in Houston and Cocoa Beach, Florida last week specifically to recruit employees for Dream Chaser. The interesting aspects here are both the specificity of the recruitment (for Dream Chaser) and the timing. The press release announcing the recruitment sessions was distributed via PRNewswire on July 6, only four days before the event in Houston and six days before the one in Florida.

{...}

NASA is expected to announce the new round of funding soon, with two programs receiving full awards and a third receiving half an award. NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said several week ago that an announcement could be made in mid-July, which means it could come this week. However, NASA has not yet publicly set a date for the announcement.

Agreements between NASA and funded commercial crew companies are finalized in advance of the public announcement, which indicates the company might already have been notified and is seeking to fill positions that it will need to create.

On the other hand, this could be precautionary to ensure that if the company does receive an award, the human resources department is set to begin recruitment right away.

{...}
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Old 08-01-2012, 09:17 AM   #24
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Parabolic Arc: Commercial Crew Announcement this Week?:
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Charles Lurio of The Lurio Report has emailed me [Doug Messier] saying that he has heard from a very reliable source that NASA will announce the next round of commercial crew funding on Thursday or Friday. This is no independent verification of this report.

{...}
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Old 08-01-2012, 07:43 PM   #25
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NASA News Release:
MEDIA ADVISORY : M12-143
NASA to Announce New Agreements for Next Phase of Commercial Crew Development


Aug. 1, 2012

WASHINGTON -- NASA will issue a news release to announce new agreements with industry partners for its Commercial Crew integrated Capability (CCiCap) initiative at 9 a.m. EDT, Friday, Aug. 3. At 10 a.m. NASA will host a news briefing from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, which will be broadcast live on NASA Television and the agency's website. NASA also will host a follow-up teleconference for media representatives with detailed questions at 10:45 a.m., immediately following the briefing.

Through CCiCap, NASA is stimulating the private sector to develop and demonstrate human spaceflight capabilities that could ultimately lead to the availability of commercial human spaceflight services for both commercial and government customers.

CCiCap is an initiative of NASA's Commercial Crew Program and a priority of the Obama Administration. The objective of the program is to facilitate the development of a U.S. commercial crew space transportation capability with the goal of achieving safe, reliable and cost-effective access to and from low Earth orbit and the International Space Station. After the capability is matured, NASA could purchase commercial services to meet its space station crew transportation needs.

Televised news briefing participants at Kennedy are:
  • NASA Administrator Charles Bolden
  • Kennedy Space Center Director Robert Cabana
  • Commercial Crew Program Manager Ed Mango

News teleconference participants are:
  • Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Directorate William Gerstenmaier
  • Director for Commercial Spaceflight Development Philip McAlister
  • Deputy Manager for Commercial Crew Program Brent Jett

{...}




Parabolic Arc: NASA to Announce Commercial Crew Winners on Friday

Florida Today: NASA to announce commercial crew awards Friday
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Old 08-03-2012, 01:39 AM   #26
Kyle
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While it isn't 'official' it is certainly reliable and a very likely rumor that this is true.
The winners of the CCIAP selection is Boeing's CST-100, SNC's Dream Chaser, and SpaceX's Dragon Capsule



Quote:
Teams headed by the Boeing Co., SpaceX and Sierra Nevada Corp. will be receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from NASA over the next 21 months for further development of spaceships capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station, knowledgeable sources told NBC News today.
NASA is to make the official announcement of the winning commercial teams on Friday morning — but NBC News' Cape Canaveral correspondent, Jay Barbree, received word from two sources who were informed of the decision in advance, on condition of anonymity. The sources did not discuss how much money any of the companies would be receiving.
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Old 08-03-2012, 01:41 AM   #27
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Not a huge surprise

I hope that Minishuttle will fly, still my favorite.
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Old 08-03-2012, 01:44 AM   #28
Kyle
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Hold that note, there's conflicting reports. Hearing that it might be SNC and Boeing that got the full awards, and SpaceX got the partial.
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Old 08-03-2012, 01:17 PM   #29
Galactic Penguin SST
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Quote:
Aug. 3, 2012

Trent J. Perrotto
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-0321
[email protected]

Candrea Thomas
Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
321-867-2468
[email protected]

RELEASE: 12-263

NASA ANNOUNCES NEXT STEPS IN EFFORT TO LAUNCH AMERICANS FROM U.S. SOIL

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- NASA Friday announced new agreements with
three American commercial companies to design and develop the next
generation of U.S. human spaceflight capabilities, enabling a launch
of astronauts from U.S. soil in the next five years. Advances made by
these companies under newly signed Space Act Agreements through the
agency's Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCap) initiative
are intended to ultimately lead to the availability of commercial
human spaceflight services for government and commercial customers.â?¬

CCiCap partners are:

-- Sierra Nevada Corporation, Louisville, Colo., $212.5 million
-- Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Hawthorne, Calif., $440
million
-- The Boeing Company, Houston, $460 million


"Today, we are announcing another critical step toward launching our
astronauts from U.S. soil on space systems built by American
companies," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said at the agency's
Kennedy Space Center in Florida. "We have selected three companies
that will help keep us on track to end the outsourcing of human
spaceflight and create high-paying jobs in Florida and elsewhere
across the country."

CCiCap is an initiative of NASA's Commercial Crew Program (CCP) and an
administration priority. The objective of the CCP is to facilitate
the development of a U.S. commercial crew space transportation
capability with the goal of achieving safe, reliable and
cost-effective access to and from the International Space Station and
low Earth orbit. After the capability is matured and expected to be
available to the government and other customers, NASA could contract
to purchase commercial services to meet its station crew
transportation needs.

The new CCiCAP agreements follow two previous initiatives by NASA to
spur the development of transportation subsystems, and represent the
next phase of U.S. commercial human space transportation, in which
industry partners develop crew transportation capabilities as fully
integrated systems. Between now and May 31, 2014, NASA's partners
will perform tests and mature integrated designs. This would then set
the stage for a future activity that will launch crewed orbital
demonstration missions to low Earth orbit by the middle of the
decade.

"For 50 years American industry has helped NASA push boundaries,
enabling us to live, work and learn in the unique environment of
microgravity and low Earth orbit," said William Gerstenmaier,
associate administrator for the Human Exploration and Operations
Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "The benefits
to humanity from these endeavors are incalculable. We're counting on
the creativity of industry to provide the next generation of
transportation to low Earth orbit and expand human presence, making
space accessible and open for business."

While NASA works with U.S. industry partners to develop commercial
spaceflight capabilities to low Earth orbit, the agency also is
developing the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and the Space
Launch System (SLS), a crew capsule and heavy-lift rocket to provide
an entirely new capability for human exploration. Designed to be
flexible for launching spacecraft for crew and cargo missions, SLS
and Orion MPCV will expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit and
enable new missions of exploration across the solar system.

For more information about NASA's Commercial Crew Program, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/commercialcrew


-end-
This was what I thought to be the result.... until a sudden push of Liberty seems all but certain for the last few weeks. Doesn't look like that changed anything though...
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Old 08-03-2012, 02:01 PM   #30
anemazoso
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Yay! I called it!
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