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Old 10-20-2008, 10:20 PM   #31
dougkeenan
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That's gonna be a lot of addons.

No, wait! If they're really advanced they'll already have one ready for us to install.
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:22 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by TSPenguin View Post
 About the agressiveness of other races:

One could argue that in order to reach type 1 or even type 2 the race will have to abandon the concept of fighting among itself.
That is, of course, only speculative. It might speed up the developement or it might hinder it, depending on the genetical basis of the race.

But it sure would be interesting to observe how long it will take for us (or any other race) to outgrow their genetic heritage. Even more interesting is how you define outgrow...
Part of being a Type 1 and beyond means that you have abandoned those infighting, tribal warfare like ways, this is true, we would be global culture with no sense of nationality as we see it now. This does not mean that you're automatically the 'good guys' and your good will toward each other will be extended to those from other worlds who may potentially be in competition with you. Like the old relativistic rocket standoff, you have to secure your own future and its probably best that you shoot first since any other action results in at least your own destruction.
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:22 PM   #33
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You should read up on stellar physics...
And besides that, if we had colonized the galaxy, we would have adequate shielding for most common radiations at hand.
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:24 PM   #34
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 we would be global culture with no sense of nationality as we see it now.
I honestly cannot see this happening to us anytime in the near future
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Old 10-20-2008, 10:49 PM   #35
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 Roughly 3% of stars are G2 - Like our Sun. The universe is a dangerous place with all those GRB's and other things. Life on Earth has suffered no less than FIVE major extinction events.
Now, it might be nice to think of some alien species thats struggled against all that and won but it's so unlikely as to be zero.

There are no aliens. We are the first and because of that we have a responsibility to survive.

When we get out to other star systems will WILL find life but it won't be intelligent. It'll be something like boneless fish on some dreary waterworld light years from here.
This type of thinking is ridiculous, and sounds a whole lot like the "white man's burden" of a century ago. People who claim this have absolutely no understanding of the incredible scale of things in the galaxy.

3% of the stars in the galaxy amounts for about 3 BILLION stars. Even if we assume that life could not possibly develop on a system that doesn't have a G2 star (doubtless an invalid assumption) that's still a whole lot of chances for life to develop.

Yes, Earth has had at least 5 "major extinction events." Guess what? We're still here. Plenty of species survived all of the events, notably our ancestors, because if they hadn't, we wouldn't be here. If anything, the fact that life on Earth has survived those major extinction events suggests that life is, in fact, quite hardy, and more than capable of surviving a major extinction event. The huge variety of animals we have now--all of whom are descended from ancestors that survived the extinctions--stands as living proof to the large number of species that can "struggle against all that and win."

If it's "so unlikely as to be zero" then how do you explain humans? Clearly, the odds of a civilization surviving to our level can't be zero, because if it were zero, then we wouldn't be here.
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Old 10-20-2008, 11:41 PM   #36
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 I honestly cannot see this happening to us anytime in the near future
We are slowly getting there... Perhaps too slowly, but it's essentially what conspiracists call the "new world order" and plently of people, nationalists, terrorists, people who might have something to lose (the wealthy or even the regular joes of developed countries perhaps) want to resist it. Perhaps with good reason along with selfish concerns - we're not good at making those kinds of transitions and theres plenty of room for it all to go horribly wrong, it will take many generations i'm sure. We can't yet support our lifestyle for everyone on the planet.

The EU, NAFTA and the various other trade federations are all the roots of such a system however and the internet is basically a type one telecommunications system - National barriers are not present on the internet and we can all talk freely with one another, aside from some countries that are blocked by their extremely nationalistic governments, like China.

How things have been going in the 'post 911' years though (the world of the '90's seemed an alltogether more cheery, hopefull place as i recall) , war, oil / energy crisis, along with global warming, nuclear proliferation, germ warfare and all the environmental concerns we have, and now an economic collapse, we may well beat an extinction event to the draw... economic and energy supply problems, increasing cost of oil & peak oil production meaning its never going to be as cheap as it was before, for example may well tip humanity over the edge.
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Old 10-21-2008, 07:02 AM   #37
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 Or maybe we are the first. Assuming that an extra terrestrial intelligence follows the same path as us we should still be able to detect radio waves from the time the culture was using radio. We haven't.
Out of the 35,000, SOME would certainly have taken a path of development similar to ours.
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Old 10-21-2008, 10:00 AM   #38
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 How things have been going in the 'post 911' years though (the world of the '90's seemed an alltogether more cheery, hopefull place as i recall)
You're right, I think the Orbiter community should build a space ship and leave before things go crazy! I reckon we have enough combined knowledge
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Old 10-21-2008, 10:53 AM   #39
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Politics is the art of making cheap things in the expensive way.
ISS is the proof. Its orbit is useless for planetary transfer and it may require an expensive engine and lots of fuel to align planes.
ISS is technically inside atmosphere. So we are still trapped inside of Earth, with politicians who worry about the videogame of economy and make cheap things expensive.
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Old 10-21-2008, 02:28 PM   #40
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Disagreements about these figures leads to estimates for the number of advanced civilizations ranging from 10^-5 to 10^6.
I think it's 10^-5
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Old 10-21-2008, 06:31 PM   #41
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  People who claim this have absolutely no understanding of the incredible scale of things in the galaxy.
Actually, we have a very good understanding of just how _small_ the galaxy is.

An expansionist technological culture can colonise the entire galaxy in ten million years without using any technology beyond what we can visualise today. If they're determined, they could colonise it in a million or less.

And spotting such a culture would be about as hard as a caveman in Central Park spotting technological culture in Manhattan; they'd be capable of engineering feats that would be visible across thousands of light years, if not from the other side of the galaxy.

Quote:
If it's "so unlikely as to be zero" then how do you explain humans? Clearly, the odds of a civilization surviving to our level can't be zero, because if it were zero, then we wouldn't be here.
And if we weren't here, no-one would be here to argue about how likely this all is.

Someone has to be first, and then within ten million years they can take over the entire galaxy. Since we can't see anyone else out there, the rational conclusion is that we are the first, or we're very, very close to being the first and the others haven't spread out far yet.
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Old 10-21-2008, 07:12 PM   #42
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There could be 35,000 civilizations in the Milky Way. There could be 2. There could be 21. It's all really pure speculation no matter which way you put it.

Besides, how in heaven's name does one propose to compare ourselves to civilizations that we don't even know exist?

Don't get me wrong, I believe that there is much more out there than just us, but some of this strikes me as nothing more than an adult exercise in imagination.
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Old 10-21-2008, 07:39 PM   #43
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One possible explanation for the Fermi Paradox (They're probably there, but where are they?), is that any civilization advanced enough to use a significant fraction of a star's energy must be able to use that energy incredibly efficiently. No hand-held device can dissipate a terawatt for very long without vaporizing itself, so if you want it to make use of very high amounts of energy, you've got to achieve very high levels of efficiency. That means very little waste heat or light, which might make even a Type II civilization undetectable unless you either knew exactly what you were looking for, were very close to them, or had detectors much more advanced than ours.

Still another possibility is that "Any sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature." Perhaps civilizations tend to advance from being undetectable by us all the way through detectability to being so advanced that we don't even recognize them as being civilizations at all, but we just see them as part of the way things are. It suggests the possibility that we are simply a Type III child's science fair project, or jawbreaker, or whatever they have. Of course, this starts going beyond science, and into the realm of religion, where it's pointless to go due to the vast realm of possibilities and no evidence for any of them.
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Old 10-21-2008, 08:04 PM   #44
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 Still another possibility is that "Any sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature." Perhaps civilizations tend to advance from being undetectable by us all the way through detectability to being so advanced that we don't even recognize them as being civilizations at all, but we just see them as part of the way things are.
Well, any piece of highly compressed data is indistinguishable from noise. If highly advanced civilizations only communicate in the most efficient way, SETI will have a very difficult time in detecting them.

Which gives rise to the question whether all noise actually comes from advanced civilizations .
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Old 10-21-2008, 11:13 PM   #45
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  That means very little waste heat or light, which might make even a Type II civilization undetectable unless you either knew exactly what you were looking for, were very close to them, or had detectors much more advanced than ours.
Why would a culture that advanced leave stars burning off energy wastefully into space? Unless they're crazy -- in which case they'd probably have died out long before reaching that point -- they'd either dismantle them for raw materials or surround them with habitats to absorb the energy and solar wind.

An industrialised galaxy would not look like the wilderness we see out there.
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